Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)
Class consciousness represents its highest stage in the contemporary Marxist thought of Rosa Luxemburg and Antonio Gramsci, not just a reflection of reality, but rather a dialectical form through the reflection of consciousness on reality and its reproduction. The superiority over the infrastructure (historical materialism) promised the revolutionary class consciousness to be achieved spontaneously, and the seeds of a breakthrough are mass strikes, denying the role of the party to organize this awareness, limiting its role to the interconnection between classes, emphasizing the role of socialist democracy as a conscious vanguard for organizing spontaneity, struggle, and developing awareness during the revolutionary process and the leader
... Show MoreThe need for detection and investigation of the causes of pollution of the marshes and submit a statistical study evaluated accurately and submitted to the competent authorities and to achieve this goal was used to analyze the factorial analysis and then obtained the results from this analysis from a sample selected from marsh water pollutants which they were: (Electrical Conductivity: EC, Power of Hydrogen: PH, Temperature: T, Turbidity: TU, Total Dissolved Solids: TDS, Dissolved Oxygen: DO). The size of sample (44) sites has been withdrawn and examined in the laboratories of the Iraqi Ministry of Environment. By illustrating SPSS program) the results had been obtained. The most important recommendation was to increase the pumping of addit
... Show MoreMental disorders (MDs) are a common problem in Primary Health Care Centers (PHCCs). Many people with serious MDs are challenged by symptoms and disabilities that result from the disease and by stereotypes and prejudice due to misconceptions about mental illness. This study aims at evaluating the knowledge, and attitude toward mental health concepts and services and causes of the reluctance to seek those services among people attending PHCCs. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted. The random sampling technique was used to include (10) of Directorates of Health (DoHs) coverage north, middle, and south of Iraq. The study was executed in (50) selected PHCs, (5) PHCCs in each DoH involved randomly selected (30) people attending th
... Show MoreLost circulation or losses in drilling fluid is one of the most important problems in the oil and gas industry, and it appeared at the beginning of this industry, which caused many problems during the drilling process, which may lead to closing the well and stopping the drilling process. The drilling muds are relatively expensive, especially the muds that contain oil-based mud or that contain special additives, so it is not economically beneficial to waste and lose these muds. The treatment of drilling fluid losses is also somewhat expensive as a result of the wasted time that it caused, as well as the high cost of materials used in the treatment such as heavy materials, cement, and others. The best way to deal with drilling fluid losses
... Show MoreThe Weibull distribution is considered one of the Type-I Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, and it plays a crucial role in modeling extreme events in various fields, such as hydrology, finance, and environmental sciences. Bayesian methods play a strong, decisive role in estimating the parameters of the GEV distribution due to their ability to incorporate prior knowledge and handle small sample sizes effectively. In this research, we compare several shrinkage Bayesian estimation methods based on the squared error and the linear exponential loss functions. They were adopted and compared by the Monte Carlo simulation method. The performance of these methods is assessed based on their accuracy and computational efficiency in estimati
... Show MoreIn the present study, the aim was made to identify the relationship between thyroid autoimmunity (TAI) and female infertility. The study was performed on 30 infertile women and 22 age-matched healthy fertile control age (33 ± 5 years). Overall, serum prolactin (PRL), thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) assay is the key test for the diagnosis and management of hypo and hyperthyroidism. Anti-TPO Ab and anti-TG Ab were measured. The mean ± SE of serum PRL (31.080 ± 3.06) ng/ml was significantly (P<0.05) higher in infertile group compared with control (16.191±1.36) ng/ml. Serum TSH was significantly (P<0.05) higher in infertile group (5.689 ± 1.12) µIU/ml compared to control group (2.282 ± 0.18) µIU/ml. The prevalence of positive
... Show MoreThe aim of this research is to use robust technique by trimming, as the analysis of maximum likelihood (ML) often fails in the case of outliers in the studied phenomenon. Where the (MLE) will lose its advantages because of the bad influence caused by the Outliers. In order to address this problem, new statistical methods have been developed so as not to be affected by the outliers. These methods have robustness or resistance. Therefore, maximum trimmed likelihood: (MTL) is a good alternative to achieve more results. Acceptability and analogies, but weights can be used to increase the efficiency of the resulting capacities and to increase the strength of the estimate using the maximum weighted trimmed likelihood (MWTL). In order to perform t
... Show MoreImam al - Karji replies to some Islamic groups
In his book the jokes of the Koran