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A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

Publication Date
Mon May 14 2018
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
The Comparison Between Different Approaches to Overcome the Multicollinearity Problem in Linear Regression Models
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    In the presence of multi-collinearity problem, the parameter estimation method based on the ordinary least squares procedure is unsatisfactory. In 1970, Hoerl and Kennard insert analternative method labeled as estimator of ridge regression.

In such estimator, ridge parameter plays an important role in estimation. Various methods were proposed by many statisticians to select the biasing constant (ridge parameter). Another popular method that is used to deal with the multi-collinearity problem is the principal component method. In this paper,we employ the simulation technique to compare the performance of principal component estimator with some types of ordinary ridge regression estimators based on the value of t

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Methods of Forecasting Credit Losses in A Sample of Iraqi Banks - A Comparative Analysis
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  The general trend in Iraqi banks is focused towards the application of international financial reporting standards, especially the international financial reporting standard IFRS 9 “Financial Instruments”, in addition to the directives issued on the Central Bank of Iraq’s instructions for the year 2018 regarding the development of expected credit losses models, and not to adhere to a specific method for calculating these losses and authorizing the banks’ departments to adopt the method of calculating losses that suits the nature of the bank’s activity and to be consistent in its use from time to time. The research problem revolves around the different methodologies for calculatin

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 24 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The American Geriatrics Society
A Systems Approach to Identify Factors Influencing Adverse Drug Events in Nursing Homes
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The objectives of the study were to identify the incidence rate and characteristics of adverse drug events (ADEs) in nursing homes (NHs) using the ADE trigger tool and to evaluate the relationships between resident and facility work system factors and incidence of ADEs using the System Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety (SEIPS) model. The study used 2 observational quantitative methods, retrospective resident chart extraction, and surveys. The participating staff included Directors of nursing, registered nurses, certified nurse assistants (CNAs). Data were collected from fall 2016 to spring 2017 from 11 NHs in 9 cities in Iowa. Binary logistic regression with generalized estimated equations was used to measure the association

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Assessing liquidity to improve bank’s profitability : An applied research - in a number of – Iraqi private banks
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The current research aims to evaluate liquidity (as an independent variable) to improve the bank’s profitability (as a dependent variable ), by the bank’s ability to maximize its profits from its business results without excessive bank’s  liquidity, so that may affect negatively affects the bank’s reputation and it’s dealers confidence in facing their financial obligations. and this may lead trying to come out among other recommendations including contributing to obtain, the bank’s ability to achieve liquidity balance to maximize its profits. This research has been applied to the sample induced intentionally by choosing three Iraqi private banks. The researcher used financial indicators to assess the bank’s liq

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Forecasting the use of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models (GARCH) Seasonality with practical application
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In this paper  has been one study of autoregressive generalized conditional heteroscedasticity models existence of the seasonal component, for the purpose applied to the daily financial data at high frequency is characterized by Heteroscedasticity seasonal conditional, it has been depending on Multiplicative seasonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models Which is symbolized by the Acronym (SGARCH) , which has proven effective expression of seasonal phenomenon as opposed to the usual GARCH models. The summarizing of the research work studying the daily data for the price of the dinar exchange rate against the dollar, has been used autocorrelation function to detect seasonal first, then was diagnosed wi

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Effect of a Ketogenic Diet on Some Biochemical Parameters in Obese People
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     This study examined the effects of a few biochemical variables on obese Iraqi males and females with a 30.5 body mass index (BMI) when they were fed a ketogenic diet. The present study demonstrates how an individual who follows a ketogenic diet has an increase in low-density lipoprotein (LDL-cholesterol). This research's objective was to assess the levels of some biochemical variables in obese people who were eating a ketogenic diet. Following 35 days on a ketogenic diet, the results show a significantly higher P ≤ 0.05 level of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and total cholesterol (TC). Additionally, insulin, fasting blood sugar (FBS), cortisol, HOMA-IR, urea, BMI, and creatinine all show a considerable reduction, P ≤

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Some Methods for Estimating Mixture of Linear Regression Models with Application
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 A mixture model is used to model data that come from more than one component. In recent years, it became an effective tool in drawing inferences about the complex data that we might come across in real life. Moreover, it can represent a tremendous confirmatory tool in classification observations based on similarities amongst them. In this paper, several mixture regression-based methods were conducted under the assumption that the data come from a finite number of components. A comparison of these methods has been made according to their results in estimating component parameters. Also, observation membership has been inferred and assessed for these methods. The results showed that the flexible mixture model outperformed the

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Some Methods for Estimating Mixture of Linear Regression Models with Application
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 A mixture model is used to model data that come from more than one component. In recent years, it became an effective tool in drawing inferences about the complex data that we might come across in real life. Moreover, it can represent a tremendous confirmatory tool in classification observations based on similarities amongst them. In this paper, several mixture regression-based methods were conducted under the assumption that the data come from a finite number of components. A comparison of these methods has been made according to their results in estimating component parameters. Also, observation membership has been inferred and assessed for these methods. The results showed that the flexible mixture model outperformed the others

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Maximum Likelihood Method And Bayesian Method For Estimating Some Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes Models
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Abstract

The Non - Homogeneous Poisson  process is considered  as one of the statistical subjects which had an importance in other sciences and a large application in different areas as waiting raws and rectifiable systems method , computer and communication systems and the theory of reliability and many other, also it used in modeling the phenomenon that occurred by unfixed way over time (all events that changed by time).

This research deals with some of the basic concepts that are related to the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process , This research carried out two models of the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process which are the power law model , and Musa –okumto ,   to estimate th

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