Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)
The aim of the research is to identify the extent of the direct and indirect relationship of the population growth of the cities as a result of the urbanization process witnessed by the Arab region for the urban development of the city structures and their formative structures, changing the planning criteria of some cities and the extent of their changes in spatial and temporal dimensions and their relation to the standards of the western cities. In changing the concept of the modern Arab city, such as the emergence of new functional uses affecting the change in the pattern of formal formations of its urban fabric associated with its ancient morphology and distinctive human nature. The research seeks to identify the extent to which plann
... Show MoreBackground: It had been found that passive smoking may have the same harmful effect as tobacco cigarettes smoking. Aims: This study was conducted to determine the effect of passive smoking on salivary glutathione peroxidase and selenium in relation to dental caries severity. Settings and Design: The sample consisted of 120 children aged 5 years old, classified into four groups according to the number of cigarettes smoked by their fathers daily: Passive smoking children of 5-10 cigarettes, those of 10–15 cigarettes daily, those of 15–20 cigarettes daily and non-passive smoking children of no smokers indoor (the control group). The sample was further classified according to dental caries severity into three groups: mild (DMFS values <4
... Show MoreThe research aims to: Preparing rehabilitative exercises with accompanying tools to rehabilitate those with shoulder dislocation. Knowing the effect of rehabilitative exercises and accompanying aids in improving the muscular strength and motor range of those with dislocations in the shoulder joint. The two researchers used the experimental design with the same experimental group with the pre and post tests, so the researcher chose a sample appropriate to the nature of his research problem, its goals and its hypotheses, as a sample of the injured was chosen to remove the shoulder joint, who completed the treatment, who were not practicing sports, and those who went to the Physiotherapy Center at Al-Was
... Show MoreIn this research, the methods of Kernel estimator (nonparametric density estimator) were relied upon in estimating the two-response logistic regression, where the comparison was used between the method of Nadaraya-Watson and the method of Local Scoring algorithm, and optimal Smoothing parameter λ was estimated by the methods of Cross-validation and generalized Cross-validation, bandwidth optimal λ has a clear effect in the estimation process. It also has a key role in smoothing the curve as it approaches the real curve, and the goal of using the Kernel estimator is to modify the observations so that we can obtain estimators with characteristics close to the properties of real parameters, and based on medical data for patients with chro
... Show MoreIn this paper was discussed the process of compounding two distributions using new compounding procedure which is connect a number of life time distributions ( continuous distribution ) where is the number of these distributions represent random variable distributed according to one of the discrete random distributions . Based on this procedure have been compounding zero – truncated poisson distribution with weibell distribution to produce new life time distribution having three parameter , Advantage of that failure rate function having many cases ( increasing , dicreasing , unimodal , bathtube) , and study the resulting distribution properties such as : expectation , variance , comulative function , reliability function and fa
... Show MoreEarly diagnosis of sepsis is a very critical matter especially for soldiers in battle field; on the other hand, Procalcitonin is a new promising biomarker for fast and accurate diagnosis of sepsis. The aim of this study is to investigate the ability of Procalcitonin (PCT) to indicate sepsis earlier than blood culture and other traditional biomarkers and then get use of this in early diagnosis of sepsis.Procalcitonin concentration was measured in 44 sera of Iraqi wounded soldiers who were admitted to GHAZI AL-HARIRI Hospital for surgery, using ELISA kit of BioRay/USA, along with blood culture and other infection biomarker like C-reactive protein, ESR, W.B.C. count. Six patients had elevated PCT and 3 of them
... Show MoreBackground: The rhizome of ginger is used in cooking and for medicinal purposes such as anti-bacterial, anti-fungal, anti-inflammatory and antioxidant. The aims of the study were to test the effect of ethanolic extract of ginger on growth, adherence and acidogenicity of mutans streptococci in comparison to chlorhexidine gluconate 0.2% and de-ionized water. Materials and methods: From saliva often volunteers (dental students 20-22 years); mutans streptococci was isolated, purified and diagnosed according to morphological characteristic and biochemical tests. Ginger was powdered and extracted, different concentrations of ginger extract were prepared. Chlorhexidine gluconate 0.2% used as a control positive; while de-ionized water was used as a
... Show MoreAn edge dominating set of a graph is said to be an odd (even) sum degree edge dominating set (osded (esded) - set) of G if the sum of the degree of all edges in X is an odd (even) number. The odd (even) sum degree edge domination number is the minimum cardinality taken over all odd (even) sum degree edge dominating sets of G and is defined as zero if no such odd (even) sum degree edge dominating set exists in G. In this paper, the odd (even) sum degree domination concept is extended on the co-dominating set E-T of a graph G, where T is an edge dominating set of G. The corresponding parameters co-odd (even) sum degree edge dominating set, co-odd (even) sum degree edge domination number and co-odd (even) sum degree edge domin
... Show MoreUrban growth of cities is connected with three related problems, the first one, is the deterioration of the center, which is a mark for historical origin. The second is the emergence of city edge, which contradicts by the center. The third one is the rapid semi urbanism of the edge. Literature review showed that Baghdad historical center (Old Rusafa and Karkh) had grown in four morphological stages, during which main paths had been changed from those which were perpendicular to the river front to those parallel to it. Research problem is that “there is a knowledge gap about the direction and origin of paths within Baghdad old center, after its growth”. The first research hypothesis is, “the direction of paths within old Baghdad cen
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