Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)
This study provides valuable information on secondary microbial infections in H1N1 patients compared to Seasonal Influenza in Iraqi Patients. Nasopharynx swabs were collected from (12 ) patients infected with Seasonal influenza (11 from Baghdad and 1 Patient from south of Iraq) ,and ( 22 ) samples from patients with 2009 H1N1 ( 20 from Baghdad and 2 from south of Iraq). The results show that the patients infected with 2009 H1N1 Virus were younger than healthy subjects and those infected with seasonal influenza. And the difference reached to the level of significance (p< 0.01) compared with healthy subjects.Two cases infected with 2009 H1N1 virus (9.1%) were fro
... Show MoreRivers Tigris and Euphrates, as well as the wetlands in southern Iraq and the Diyala River, were all included in the evaluation of earlier studies on the variety and factors impacting fish in Iraqi waters. Different studies documented different types, and the number of species recorded varied between the studies, which could be explained by the registration of some species, synonyms, differs from the registration of some species with synonymous names By mistake, as well as recording new species in times that followed some previous studies, Also, the difference in some factors, including the pollution of some waterways, leads to a difference in the existing species, so we find the presence of species that are tolerant of pollution. There are
... Show MoreA multivariate multisite hydrological data forecasting model was derived and checked using a case study. The philosophy is to use simultaneously the cross-variable correlations, cross-site correlations and the time lag correlations. The case study is of two variables, three sites, the variables are the monthly rainfall and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Dokan, and Darbandikhan.. The model form is similar to the first order auto regressive model, but in matrices form. A matrix for the different relative correlations mentioned above and another for their relative residuals were derived and used as the model parameters. A mathematical filter was used for both matrices to obtain the elements. The application of this model indicates i
... Show MoreThe present work aimed to make a comparative investigation between three different ionospheric models: IRI-2020, ASAPS and VOACAP. The purpose of the comparative study is to investigate the compatibility of predicting the Maximum Usable Frequency parameter (MUF) over mid-latitude region during the severe geomagnetic storm on 17 March 2015. Three stations distributed in the mid-latitudes were selected for study; these are (Athens (23.50o E, 38.00o N), Jeju (124.53o E, 33.6o N) and Pt. Arguello (239.50o W, 34.80o N). The daily MUF outcomes were calculated using the tested models for the three adopted sites, for a span of five-day (the day of the event and two days preceding and following the event day). The calculated datasets were co
... Show MoreThere is an assumption implicit but fundamental theory behind the decline by the time series used in the estimate, namely that the time series has a sleep feature Stationary or the language of Engle Gernger chains are integrated level zero, which indicated by I (0). It is well known, for example, tables of t-statistic is designed primarily to deal with the results of the regression that uses static strings. This assumption has been previously treated as an axiom the mid-seventies, where researchers are conducting studies of applied without taking into account the properties of time series used prior to the assessment, was to accept the results of these tests Bmanueh and delivery capabilities based on the applicability of the theo
... Show MoreThe marketing of banking service is considered to be one of the impotent fields which showed a universal inebriates . He research showed the comparison between the application of marketing in ideas and application for loot government and private Iraqi bank. The research comets of four parts; Mythology / the concept and the importance of Banking Marketing / Research applichlion/ Conelnion and recommendation.
This research sheds light on those discrepancies in the use of ornaments, adornment and perfumes, as well as the art of cosmetics, in two important civilizations, namely, the Mesopotamian civilization as the earlier civilization, and the civilization of Yemen, which represents the first Arab civilization. Through the foregoing, our research includes two topics, the first topic included the history of the use of decorations, ornaments and perfumes in the civilization of Mesopotamia, while the second topic included the study of ornaments, adornment and cosmetic art in the ancient civilization of Yemen. And then the research came out with a number of conclusions that the researcher considers very important to highlight the differences and f
... Show MoreArtificial Neural Networks (ANN) is one of the important statistical methods that are widely used in a range of applications in various fields, which simulates the work of the human brain in terms of receiving a signal, processing data in a human cell and sending to the next cell. It is a system consisting of a number of modules (layers) linked together (input, hidden, output). A comparison was made between three types of neural networks (Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN), Back propagation network (BPL), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). he study found that the lowest false prediction rate was for the recurrentt network architecture and using the Data on graduate students at the College of Administration and Economics, Univer
... Show MoreDarcy-Weisbach (D-W) is a typical resistance equation in pressured flow; however, some academics and engineers prefer Hazen-Williams (H-W) for assessing water distribution networks. The main difference is that the (D-W) friction factor changes with the Reynolds number, while the (H-W) coefficient is a constant value for a certain material. This study uses WaterGEMS CONNECT Edition update 1 to find an empirical relation between the (H-W) and (H-W) equations for two 400 mm and 500 mm pipe systems. The hydraulic model was done, and two scenarios were applied by changing the (H-W) coefficient to show the difference in results of head loss. The results showed a strong relationship between both equations with correlation coefficients of 0.999,
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