Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)
Abstract
In this research provide theoretical aspects of one of the most important statistical distributions which it is Lomax, which has many applications in several areas, set of estimation methods was used(MLE,LSE,GWPM) and compare with (RRE) estimation method ,in order to find out best estimation method set of simulation experiment (36) with many replications in order to get mean square error and used it to make compare , simulation experiment contrast with (estimation method, sample size ,value of location and shape parameter) results show that estimation method effected by simulation experiment factors and ability of using other estimation methods such as(Shrinkage, jackknif
... Show MoreObjective :To evaluate elderly's environmental practices concerning fall prevention at governmental elderly care homes in Baghdad city. Methodology: A quazi- Experimental study was carried out in governmental elderly care homes at Baghdad city, during the period 1st, June 2014 to 30th November, 2014 , selected a purposive " Non – probability " sample of (40) elderly men and women aged (60) years old and over who were resident in governmental elderly care homes " Al Ceelakh and Al Sader elderly care homes", the data was collected through the use of constructed questionnaire that consist of (23) items,
Background: Osteoid osteoma(OO) is a relatively common benign skeletal neoplasm of unknown etiology that is composed of osteoid and woven bone, usually seen in adolescent and young males Although, the clinical, radiological and scintigraphic features of OO have been well described, these features may be misleading or altered in the cases of lesser trochanter of the femur which is relatively uncommon location for OO with a few number of cases reported up to date.Case Presentation: We report a case of a 20-year-old man who presented with painful limpThe pain had begun six months earlier and was made worse by walking and by exercise., with normal initial X-rays .The diagnosis was made after six months when typical Computed tomography, magne
... Show MoreBackground: Osteoid osteoma(OO) is a relatively common benign skeletal neoplasm of unknown etiology that is composed of osteoid and woven bone, usually seen in adolescent and young males Although, the clinical, radiological and scintigraphic features of OO have been well described, these features may be misleading or altered in the cases of lesser trochanter of the femur which is relatively uncommon location for OO with a few number of cases reported up to date. Case Presentation: We report a case of a 20-year-old man who presented with painful limpThe pain had begun six months earlier and was made worse by walking and by exercise., with normal initial X-rays .The diagnosis was made after six months when typical Computed tomography, magneti
... Show MoreReceipt date:06/23/2020 accepted date:7/15/2020 Publication date:12/31/2021
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The executive authority differs from one country to another, as it differs from a federal state to another according to the nature of the applied political systems, so this research focused on federal states according to their political systems, then going into the details of the executive authority and its role In the federal states by referring to the four federal experiments
... Show MoreThe goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange r
... Show MoreThe continuous pressure of work and daily life and the increasing financial and social stress that Iraqi women are experiencing (both inside and outside Iraq) is one of the main causes of anxiety, particularly in those of working class women. This group of women carry the burden of carrying out multiple roles and responsibilities at the same time. All this collectively make them more prone to developing anxiety compared to men. In addition, the physiological and psychological nature of women, as females, on top of the other roles in life, like being a wife or mother or daughter or sister, all add extra pressure on women especially for those who are considered as productive working individuals in the society. In order to study the relatio
... Show MoreDue to a party's violation of his obligations or responsibilities indicated in the contract, many engineering projects confront extensive contractual disputes, which in turn need arbitration or other forms of dispute resolution, which negatively impact the project's outcome. Each contract has its terms for dispute resolution. Therefore, this paper aims to study the provisions for dispute resolution according to Iraqi (SBDW) and the JCT (SBC/Q2016) and also to show the extent of the difference between the two contracts in the application of these provisions. The methodology includes a detailed study of the dispute settlement provisions for both contracts with a comparative analysis to identify the differences in the appli
... Show MoreMany of the dynamic processes in different sciences are described by models of differential equations. These models explain the change in the behavior of the studied process over time by linking the behavior of the process under study with its derivatives. These models often contain constant and time-varying parameters that vary according to the nature of the process under study in this We will estimate the constant and time-varying parameters in a sequential method in several stages. In the first stage, the state variables and their derivatives are estimated in the method of penalized splines(p- splines) . In the second stage we use pseudo lest square to estimate constant parameters, For the third stage, the rem
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