The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

God Almighty put in his great book secrets that do not end, and wonders that do not expire, for he is the one from which the scholars are not satisfied, and he does not create due to the multitude of response, and it is the comprehensive and inhibitory book that God conceals to the worlds, and he challenged the two heavyweights to come up with something like it.

At all times, issues arise in the Noble Qur’an that fit the needs of the people of that time and their culture, for it is an eternal book, characterized by the ability to give, extend and respond to addressing the problems of the age and its variables, when the Arabs had little luck at the time of the message’s descent from the scientific culture, and their proficienc

Nature and natural beauty have always been the source of inspiration for poets and mystics.  For them, nature is one of the most recurrent and celebrated themes. It is a significant symbol of the beauty, righteousness and freshness they are looking for. For religious and mystical poets, it is a reference to God, his beauty, and splendour. Comparing it with the scripture, Thomas Ryan, a Catholic priest and a mystical writer, says ''The Bible is the 'small book', the world of nature is the 'big book'. Both reveal the Creator.''¹

     For Muslim mystics, God does exist everywhere as the Qur'an states:   ''Wherever (Whithersoever)  you turn, there is God's face” (Chapter (Surah): 2

Abstract

The study discussed three areas in strategic thinking, namely, (patterns elements, outcomes) , this study aimed to measure extent to which strategic leaders have the type or types of patterns of strategic thinking, and measure the extent of their use of the elements of strategic thinking, and measurement of strategic thinking outcomes for managers at various levels , And to know the relationship between the modes of strategic thinking, elements and outcomes in organizations. the study included five banks and four hospitals and four colleges and universities, has been a research sample consisted of 168 individuals, distributed in positions (Director General , Director of Directorate , Director of

The study showed that all extracts (aqueous, ethanolic and acetonic) of the leaves of Eucalyptus and Myrtus plants had a inhibitory effect on the growth of all types of yeasts studied, acetone extract recorded the highest inhibition of yeastat 100ppm concentration,The inhibition was 35mm, 34mm, 24mm and 20mm for Candida parapsilosis, Candida glabrata, Candida tropicalis and Candida albicans respectively, The experiments above showed the least significant differences at 0.05 level.The results ofE. Cammldulensis ethanolic tincture analysis has shown the presence of 44 biologically active substances. The main Eucalyptus leaves component was: 2-Bicyclo (2-2.1) heptanol (12.37%), Ledol (8.23%),1,2,4- Benzenetriol (8.45%) and that contain spathul

In this paper, we made comparison among different parametric ,nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for partial linear regression model users parametric represented by ols and nonparametric methods represented by cubic smoothing spline estimator and Nadaraya-Watson estimator, we study three nonparametric regression models and samples sizes  n=40,60,100,variances used σ²=0.5,1,1.5 the results  for the first model show that N.W estimator for partial linear regression model(PLM) is the best followed the cubic smoothing spline estimator for (PLM),and the results of the second and the third model show that the best estimator is C.S.S.followed by N.W estimator for (PLM) ,the

In this paper, the general framework for calculating the stability of equilibria, Hopf bifurcation of a delayed prey-predator system with an SI type of disease in the prey population, is investigated. The impact of the incubation period delay on disease transmission utilizing a nonlinear incidence rate was taken into account. For the purpose of explaining the predation process, a modified Holling type II functional response was used. First, the existence, uniform boundedness, and positivity of the solutions of the considered model system, along with the behavior of equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcation, are studied. The critical values of the delay parameter for which stability switches and the nature of the Hopf bifurcat

Since cancer is becoming a leading cause of death worldwide, efforts should be concentrated on understanding its underlying biological alterations that would be utilized in disease management, especially prevention strategies. Within this context, multiple bodies of evidence have highlighted leptin’s practical and promising role, a peptide hormone extracted from adipose and fatty tissues with other adipokines, in promoting the proliferation, migration, and metastatic invasion of breast carcinoma cells. Excessive blood leptin levels and hyperleptinemia increase body fat content and stimulate appetite. Also, high leptin level is believed to be associated with several conditions, including overeating, emotional stress, inflammation, obesity,

The main challenge is to protect the environment from future deterioration due to pollution and the lack of natural resources. Therefore, one of the most important things to pay attention to and get rid of its negative impact is solid waste. Solid waste is a double-edged sword according to the way it is dealt with, as neglecting it causes a serious environmental risk from water, air and soil pollution, while dealing with it in the right way makes it an important resource in preserving the environment. Accordingly, the proper management of solid waste and its reuse or recycling is the most important factor. Therefore, attention has been drawn to the use of solid waste in different ways, and the most common way is to use it as an alternative