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Multi-Sites Multi-Variables Forecasting Model for Hydrological Data using Genetic Algorithm Modeling
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A two time step stochastic multi-variables multi-sites hydrological data forecasting model was developed and verified using a case study. The philosophy of this model is to use the cross-variables correlations, cross-sites correlations and the two steps time lag correlations simultaneously, for estimating the parameters of the model which then are modified using the mutation process of the genetic algorithm optimization model. The objective function that to be minimized is the Akiake test value. The case study is of four variables and three sites. The variables are the monthly air temperature, humidity, precipitation, and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Chwarta, and Penjwin, which are located north Iraq. The model performance was checked by comparing it's results with the results of six forecasting models developed for the same data by Al-Suhili and khanbilvardi, 2014.The check of the performance of the new developed model was made for three forecasted series for each variable, using the Akaike test which indicates that the developed model is more successful, since it gave the minimum (AIC) values for (91.67 %) of the forecasted series. This indicates that the developed model had improved the forecasting performance. For the rest of cases (8.33%), other models gave the lowest AIC value, however it is slightly lower than that given by the developed model. Moreover the t-test for monthly means comparison between the models indicates that the developed model has the highest percent of succeed (100%).

 

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Physical Mesomechanics Of Condensed Matter: Physical Principles Of Multiscale Structure Formation And The Mechanisms Of Nonlinear Behavior: Meso2022
Optimal control strategy applied to diabetes model
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Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Fuzzy Bridge Regression Model Estimating via Simulation
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      The main problem when dealing with fuzzy data variables is that it cannot be formed by a model that represents the data through the method of Fuzzy Least Squares Estimator (FLSE) which gives false estimates of the invalidity of the method in the case of the existence of the problem of multicollinearity. To overcome this problem, the Fuzzy Bridge Regression Estimator (FBRE) Method was relied upon to estimate a fuzzy linear regression model by triangular fuzzy numbers. Moreover, the detection of the problem of multicollinearity in the fuzzy data can be done by using Variance Inflation Factor when the inputs variable of the model crisp, output variable, and parameters are fuzzed. The results were compared usin

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 13 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Lorenz model and chaos masking /addition technique
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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Model Estimated Building in Finite Population Sampling
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Abstract

The population is sets of vocabulary common in character or characters and it’s study subject or research . statistically , this sets is called study population (or abridgement population ) such as set of person or trees of special kind of fruits or animals or product  any country for any commodity through infinite temporal period term ... etc.

The population maybe finite if we can enclose the number of its members such as the students of finite school grade . and maybe infinite if we can not enclose the number of it is members such as stars or aquatic creatures in the sea . when we study any character for population the statistical data is concentrate by two metho

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences
ON ERROR DISTRIBUTION WITH SINGLE INDEX MODEL
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In this paper, the error distribution function is estimated for the single index model by the empirical distribution function and the kernel distribution function. Refined minimum average variance estimation (RMAVE) method is used for estimating single index model. We use simulation experiments to compare the two estimation methods for error distribution function with different sample sizes, the results show that the kernel distribution function is better than the empirical distribution function.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
CFD Simulation Model of Salt Wedge Propagation
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This study aims to numerically simulate the flow of the salt wedge by using computational fluid dynamics, CFD. The accuracy of the numerical simulation model was assessed against published laboratory data. Twelve CFD model runs were conducted under the same laboratory conditions. The results showed that the propagation of the salt wedge is inversely proportional to the applied freshwater discharge and the bed slope of the flume.  The maximum propagation is obtained at the lowest discharge value and the minimum slope of the flume. The comparison between the published laboratory results and numerical simulation shows a good agreement. The range of the relative error varies between 0 and 16% with an average of 2% and a roo

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 31 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Effect of Using Extra Fins on the Pin Fin Classic Geometry for Enhancement Heat Sink Performance using EGM Method
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In the present study, the effect of new cross-section fin geometries on overall thermal/fluid performance had been investigated. The cross-section included the base original geometry of (triangular, square, circular, and elliptical pin fins) by adding exterior extra fins along the sides of the origin fins. The present extra fins include rectangular extra fin of 2 mm (height) and 4 mm (width) and triangular extra fin of 2 mm (base) 4 mm (height). The use of entropy generation minimization method (EGM) allows the combined effect of thermal resistance and pressure drop to be assessed through the simultaneous interaction with the heat sink. A general dimensionless expression for the entropy generation rate is obtained by con

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of BASE methods with other methods for estimating the measurement parameter for WEBB distribution using simulations
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  Weibull distribution is considered as one of the most widely  distribution applied in real life, Its similar to normal distribution in the way of applications, it's also considered as one of the distributions that can applied in many fields such as industrial engineering to represent replaced and manufacturing time ,weather forecasting, and other scientific uses in reliability studies and survival function in medical and communication engineering fields.

   In this paper, The scale parameter has been estimated for weibull distribution using Bayesian method based on Jeffery prior information as a first method , then enhanced by improving Jeffery prior information and then used as a se

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 03 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Comparison of the Methods for Estimation of Reliability Function for Burr-XII Distribution by Using Simulation.
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This deals with estimation of Reliability function and one shape parameter (?) of two- parameters Burr – XII , when ?(shape parameter is known) (?=0.5,1,1.5) and also the initial values of (?=1), while different sample shze n= 10, 20, 30, 50) bare used. The results depend on empirical study through simulation experiments are applied to compare the four methods of estimation, as well as computing the reliability function . The results of Mean square error indicates that Jacknif estimator is better than other three estimators , for all sample size and parameter values

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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Digital Image Authentication Algorithm Based on Fragile Invisible Watermark and MD-5 Function in the DWT Domain
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Using watermarking techniques and digital signatures can better solve the problems of digital images transmitted on the Internet like forgery, tampering, altering, etc. In this paper we proposed invisible fragile watermark and MD-5 based algorithm for digital image authenticating and tampers detecting in the Discrete Wavelet Transform DWT domain. The digital image is decomposed using 2-level DWT and the middle and high frequency sub-bands are used for watermark and digital signature embedding. The authentication data are embedded in number of the coefficients of these sub-bands according to the adaptive threshold based on the watermark length and the coefficients of each DWT level. These sub-bands are used because they a

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