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Multi-Sites Multi-Variables Forecasting Model for Hydrological Data using Genetic Algorithm Modeling
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A two time step stochastic multi-variables multi-sites hydrological data forecasting model was developed and verified using a case study. The philosophy of this model is to use the cross-variables correlations, cross-sites correlations and the two steps time lag correlations simultaneously, for estimating the parameters of the model which then are modified using the mutation process of the genetic algorithm optimization model. The objective function that to be minimized is the Akiake test value. The case study is of four variables and three sites. The variables are the monthly air temperature, humidity, precipitation, and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Chwarta, and Penjwin, which are located north Iraq. The model performance was checked by comparing it's results with the results of six forecasting models developed for the same data by Al-Suhili and khanbilvardi, 2014.The check of the performance of the new developed model was made for three forecasted series for each variable, using the Akaike test which indicates that the developed model is more successful, since it gave the minimum (AIC) values for (91.67 %) of the forecasted series. This indicates that the developed model had improved the forecasting performance. For the rest of cases (8.33%), other models gave the lowest AIC value, however it is slightly lower than that given by the developed model. Moreover the t-test for monthly means comparison between the models indicates that the developed model has the highest percent of succeed (100%).

 

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
The International Journal Of Central Banking
USING SOME NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATORS OF THE ERROR CORRECTION MODEL TO MEASURE THE EFFECT OF CHANGES IN BANK DEPOSITS ON THE MONEY SUPPLY
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In this paper, the effect of changes in bank deposits on the money supply in Iraq was studied by estimating the error correction model (ECM) for monthly time series data for the period (2010-2015) . The Philips Perron was used to test the stationarity and also we used Engle and Granger to test the cointegration . we used cubic spline and local polynomial estimator to estimate regression function .The result show that local polynomial was better than cubic spline with the first level of cointegration.

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Publication Date
Sun May 02 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Value at risk simulation in a fixed return stock portfolio using the Monte Carlo simulation model The concept of a bond portfolio
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This research aims to predict the value of the maximum daily loss that the fixed-return securities portfolio may suffer in Qatar National Bank - Syria, and for this purpose data were collected for risk factors that affect the value of the portfolio represented by the time structure of interest rates in the United States of America over the extended period Between 2017 and 2018, in addition to data related to the composition of the bonds portfolio of Qatar National Bank of Syria in 2017, And then employing Monte Carlo simulation models to predict the maximum loss that may be exposed to this portfolio in the future. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation showed the possibility of decreasing the value at risk in the future due to the dec

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 13 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Pharmacy Practice
A comprehensive review of drivers influencing flu vaccine acceptance in the Middle East over the last six years: using Health Belief Model
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Abstract<sec> <title>Objectives

The objectives of this study were to review the literature covering the perceptions about influenza vaccines in the Middle East and to determine factors influencing the acceptance of vaccination using Health Belief Model (HBM).

Methods

A comprehensive literature search was performed utilizing PubMed and Google Scholar databases. Three keywords were used: Influenza vaccine, perceptions and Middle East. Empirical studies that dealt with people/healthcare worker (HCW) perceptio

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 28 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Optics
Estimated the nanoparticles size of CdS from UV–Vis spectrum absorption by effective mass approximation model (EMA) using capping and complex agent
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Publication Date
Wed May 10 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Genetic and Bacteriological Study of Aerobic Bacteria Which Causes Cesarean Section Contamination in Women in The City of Diwaniya
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    This study was designed  to stand  on the most important causes of contamination in sesarean section in women by the aerobic bacteria species the bacteria isolates  were diagnosed in the Maternity and Children  Hospital in the Qadsiya province and in the special clinics. Sixty five persent of women having cesarean operation were contaminated with different bacteria in different ratios. Staphylococcus aureus  showed the higher percentage  (62.4) , Pseudomonas.aerogenosa  18% , E.coli 9.5% and Proteus.spp (6,4%).While Streptococcus pyogens showed lowest percentage 3.6% .  The results of antibiotic sensitivity test for all bacteria  isolates showed  Chloramphenicol and Ami

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 06 2021
Journal Name
Animals
Comparison of the Genetic Structure of Invasive Bigheaded Carp (Hypophthalmichthys spp.) Populations in Central-European Lacustrine and Riverine Habitats
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Bigheaded carps (bighead carp, Hypophthalmichthys molitrix, and silver carp, Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) and their hybrids play an important ecological and economic role in their original habitat, while their introduced stocks may pose serious ecological risks. To address questions about the persistence and invasiveness of these fish, we need to better understand their population structures. The genetic structures of bigheaded carp populations inhabiting Lake Balaton and the Tisza River were examined with ten microsatellite markers and a mitochondrial DNA marker (COI). The Lake Balaton stock showed higher genetic diversity compared with the Tisza River stock. Based on hierarchical clustering, the Tisza population was characterized o

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Meta Gene
Genetic polymorphism of IL-17A (rs2275913) in Iraqi women with recurrent abortion and its relationship with susceptibility to toxoplasmosis
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Plant Archives
A novel finding of il-9 genetic polymorphism (rs17317275) and serum level in rheumatoid arthritis patients infected with CMV
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RA is a complex chronic disease, primarily affects the lining of the synovial joints and can cause progressive disability, premature death, and socioeconomic burdens. The clinical manifestations of symmetrical joint involvement include arthralgia, swelling, redness, and even limiting the range of motion. The pathogenesis is not known therefore the study included Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is one of systemic inflammatory diseases that characterized by a progressive disabling course. The study included patients suffering from RA and as healthy controls. immunological and genetic factor were evaluated in each subject by using serum level of cytokine and genetic factor. The etiopathology of the disease is not well known for this reason the study

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Romanian Journal Of Rheumatology
Association between genetic polymorphism in tumor necrosis factor-alpha gene and adverse effects of etanercept in rheumatoid arthritis patients
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Background. Gene polymorphisms affect etanercept’s pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, and side effects. This effect is evidenced by the extensive genetic variation in the drug’s targets. Objectives. This study aims to find the association between different genotypes of the promoter region of the TNF-α gene at -308G/A(rs1800629), -857C/T(rs1799724), -863 C/A(rs1800630), -1031 T/C (rs1799964), -806 C/T (rs4248158) and -376 G/A (rs1800750) and the side effects of ETN that occurred to Iraqi RA patients. Method. The trial included patients with rheumatoid arthritis who had been using ETN for at least six months. The participants were from the Baghdad Teaching Hospital Rheumatology Unit. The PCR was sequenced to determine the polymo

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 15 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Association of a genetic variant (rs689466) of Cyclooxygenase-2 gene with chronic periodontitis in a sample of Iraqi population
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Background: periodontitis is a chronic inflammatory disease causing destruction of the tooth supporting structures, initiated by dental plaque and modified by environmental and genetic risk factors. Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) enzyme is responsible for the production of prostaglandin E2, an important mediator in the chronic periodontitis (CP) pathogenesis. Polymorphisms in COX-2 gene have linked to CP in different populations. Aim: To study the association between Cyclooxygenase-2 single nucleotide polymorphism rs689466 (-1195A/G SNP) and chronic periodontitis in a sample of Iraqi population. Methods: One hundred Iraqi subjects divided into two groups: case group consisted of 70 CP patient (35 males and 35 females) with age range 30-55 year

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