Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

A prey-predator interaction model has been suggested in which the population of a predator consists of a two-stage structure. Modified Holling's disk equation is used to describe the consumption of the prey so that it involves the additional source of food for the predator. The fear function is imposed on prey. It is supposed that the prey exhibits anti-predator behavior and may kill the adult predator due to their struggle against predation. The proposed model is investigated for existence, uniqueness, and boundedness. After determining all feasible equilibrium points, the local stability analyses are performed. In addition, global stability analyses for this model using the Lyapunov method are investigated. The chance of occurrence of loc

In this paper, a national grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) system is proposed. It extracts the maximum power point (MPP) using three-incremental-steps perturb and observe (TISP&O) maximum power point tracking (MPPT) method. It improves the classic P&O by using three incremental duty ratio (ΔD) instead of a single one in the conventional P and O MPPT method. Therefore, the system's performance is improved to a higher speed and less power fluctuation around the MPP. The Boost converter controls the MPPT and then is connected to a three-phase voltage source inverter (VSI). This type of inverter needs a high and constant input voltage. A second-order low pass (LC) filter is connected to the output of VSI to reduce t

The work demonstrates the effect of cold atmospheric plasma (CAP) on adult female rats suffering from osteoporosis, the used plasma was generated by a floating electrode-dielectric barrier discharge system with an electrode diameter of 3 cm. The output power was from (12-20) watts. The effect of non-thermal plasma was observed on rats with various exposure times of 20, 30, and 40 sec. It was noted that the blood calcium percentage of animals exposed to cold plasma increased, as well as an increase in the level of vitamin D3 at the same time, it is noted that there is no effect on parathyroid hormone level. For the thyroid gland, it is noticed an increase in the level of T3, and T4 hormones in the blood during the period of induction for

Voting is one of the most fundamental components of a democratic society. In 2021 Iraq held the Council of Representatives (CoR) elections in 83 electoral constituencies in 19 governorates. Nonetheless, several significant issues arose during this election, including the problem of logistics distribution, the excessively long period of ballot counting, voters can't know if their votes were counted or if their ballots were tampered with, and the inconsistent regulation of vote counting. Blockchain technology, which was just invented, may offer a solution to these problems. This paper introduces an electronic voting system for the Iraq Council of Representatives elections that is based on a prototype of the permission hyperledger fabr

The research aims to get acquainted with the evaluation of the reality of the application of the curriculum axis from among the eight Iraqi academic accreditation standards in a sample of governmental and private universities and colleges in Iraq and to identify the main and secondary reasons for it as well as to provide proposed mechanisms and procedures to help reduce gaps, If the research problem is represented in the weak availability of the requirements of the curriculum axis in universities and colleges (the study sample) due to the weak documentation and successful implementation of them and interest in them is still below the level of ambition, In order to arrive at scientific facts, the researchers adopted the comparativ

Abstract:

    Under the state scenario, fiscal policy will not be able to use the oil surpluses optimally and economically and society, as long as these surpluses are not directed by public expenditure towards new productive investments and by following the path of fiscal policy after one year 2003 and until 2013 we note that it is based on the method of spending (excessive) consumption, and did not take any action towards the budget deficit planned at the beginning of the fiscal year, and the actual surplus at the end of the fiscal year, which represents the highest expenditure in the budget, Salaries and wages of workers in various government agencies with the expansion of spending on the security side.&n