A multivariate multisite hydrological data forecasting model was derived and checked using a case study. The philosophy is to use simultaneously the cross-variable correlations, cross-site correlations and the time lag correlations. The case study is of two variables, three sites, the variables are the monthly rainfall and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Dokan, and Darbandikhan.. The model form is similar to the first order auto regressive model, but in matrices form. A matrix for the different relative correlations mentioned above and another for their relative residuals were derived and used as the model parameters. A mathematical filter was used for both matrices to obtain the elements. The application of this model indicates it's capability of preserving the statistical characteristics of the observed series. The preservation was checked by using (t-test) and (F-test) for the monthly means and variances which gives 98.6% success for means and 81% success for variances. Moreover for the same data two well-known models were used for the sake of comparison with the developed model. The single-site singlevariable auto regressive first order and the multi-variable single-site models. The results of the three models were compared using (Akike test) which indicates that the developed model is more successful ,since it gave minimum (AIC) value for Sulaimania rainfall, Darbandikhan rainfall, and Darbandikhan evaporation, while Matalas model gave minimum (AIC) value for Sulaimania evaporation and Dokan rainfall, and Markov AR (1) model gave minimum (AIC) value for only Dokan evaporation).However, for these last cases the (AIC) given by the developed model is slightly greater than the minimum corresponding value.
The electron correlation effect for inter-shell have been analysed in terms of Fermi hole and partial Fermi hole for Li-atom in the excited states (1s2 3p) and (1s2 3d) using Hartree-Fock approximation (HF). Fermi hole Δf(r12) and partial Fermi hole Δg(r12 ,r1) were determined in position space. Each plot of the physical properties in this work is normalized to unity. The calculation was performed using Mathcad 14 program.
The Khor Mor gas-condensate processing plant in Iraq is currently facing operational challenges due to foaming issues in the sweetening tower caused by high-soluble hydrocarbon liquids entering the tower. The root cause of the problem could be liquid carry-over as the separation vessels within the plant fail to remove liquid droplets from the gas phase. This study employs Aspen HYSYS v.11 software to investigate the performance of the industrial three-phase horizontal separator, Bravo #2, located upstream of the Khor Mor sweetening tower, under both current and future operational conditions. The simulation results, regarding the size distribution of liquid droplets in the gas product and the efficiency gas/liquid separation, r
... Show MoreCircular thin walled structures have wide range of applications. This type of structure is generally exposed to different types of loads, but one of the most important types is a buckling. In this work, the phenomena of buckling was studied by using finite element analysis. The circular thin walled structure in this study is constructed from; cylindrical thin shell strengthen by longitudinal stringers, subjected to pure bending in one plane. In addition, Taguchi method was used to identify the optimum combination set of parameters for enhancement of the critical buckling load value, as well as to investigate the most effective parameter. The parameters that have been analyzed were; cylinder shell thickness, shape of stiffeners section an
... Show MoreThis deals with estimation of Reliability function and one shape parameter (?) of two- parameters Burr – XII , when ?(shape parameter is known) (?=0.5,1,1.5) and also the initial values of (?=1), while different sample shze n= 10, 20, 30, 50) bare used. The results depend on empirical study through simulation experiments are applied to compare the four methods of estimation, as well as computing the reliability function . The results of Mean square error indicates that Jacknif estimator is better than other three estimators , for all sample size and parameter values
In this paper, the homotopy perturbation method (HPM) is presented for treating a linear system of second-kind mixed Volterra-Fredholm integral equations. The method is based on constructing the series whose summation is the solution of the considered system. Convergence of constructed series is discussed and its proof is given; also, the error estimation is obtained. Algorithm is suggested and applied on several examples and the results are computed by using MATLAB (R2015a). To show the accuracy of the results and the effectiveness of the method, the approximate solutions of some examples are compared with the exact solution by computing the absolute errors.
Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ
... Show MoreSemi-parametric regression models have been studied in a variety of applications and scientific fields due to their high flexibility in dealing with data that has problems, as they are characterized by the ease of interpretation of the parameter part while retaining the flexibility of the non-parametric part. The response variable or explanatory variables can have outliers, and the OLS approach have the sensitivity to outliers. To address this issue, robust (resistance) methods were used, which are less sensitive in the presence of outlier values in the data. This study aims to estimate the partial regression model using the robust estimation method with the wavel
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