The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

The aim of organizational contemporary is development man power active, in spit-of there are littlie resources. But in the Iraqi environment there are too much resources with performance inhabiting. specially in the ministry of water resources (sample of this research), about dryness and lower levels of rivers. There for this study have some important variable, it is ethical leadership & transformational leadership as (independent variable), and Perceived organizational support(dependent variable). Over here to invest with authority on the problem of research, is weakness harmony between employed perception and the pattern of leadership. We find decline in of reaction of organ compound between the variable to weaken high perf

Abraham son of Izra, the poet, the philosopher, the grammarian, and the Turah exegesis, is considered one of the famous poets in the era of Islamic reign in Spain which is called the "Golden Era". He was taught all types of teaching which was rich in Jewish literary products. He learned Arabic and studied Arabic language and literature. He travelled a lot, and made tours within Spanish places, and even reached the North of Africa. He preferred living with Muslim rulers in the south of Spain, like the rest of the Jews who emigrated from the north of Spain to the South in search for freedom and to participate in higher positions of the Islamic Palace. He was influenced by Arabic culture, and even translated "Th

Objective(s): To evaluate the family physicians' practices and to measure its impact upon the quality of family
medicine health care in Baghdad City model primary health care centers.
Methodology: A descriptive study, using the evaluation approach, has evaluated the impact of family physicians'
practices upon quality of healthcare in Baghdad's Model Primary Health Care Centers of Family Medicine. It is
carried out during 15th of May – 20th of August 2017. The study is conducted at five model primary health care
centers of family medicine from two districts; AL-Rusafa and AL-Kurkh. Sample size is calculated to be (76)
family physicians. Convenient sample of (124) patients who are attending these primary health care cen

Some children are suffering from introversion in kindergartens , so it must be confront and obviated by specialists because it will inevitably lead to unsatisfactory results reflect negatively on the individual and the community together . And the introvert child is a miserable child incapable of social interaction or give - and - take with colleagues , lack of integration of the child to life leads to the obstruction of  participation with his peers in various activities.     Introversion  causes a real emotional deficit to the children of kindergartens which limits of possibility of their intellectual development and mental growth and that because of their isolation and poor focus in education

The Financial authority is considered as one of  the most of benefited parts from financial statements  which depends on it in process of accounting  in taxes as basis to determine The Tax Base , but no confidence from financial authority part in objectivity of income financial information in them for many of limited companies led to no dependence on them to specify taxation contain & dependence on yearly regulations that issued them. To enhance the confidence of financial authority to these lists must meet its requirements, because the menus Fulfill the requirements of the financial authority increases the confidence in these statements and therefore reliable in determining the tax base. So this research aims to speci

The research aims at identifying the importance of scientific research for researchers and in creating new knowledge، development and utilization of mental and cognitive energies and developed them with the ability to research، extrapolation، meditation and then conclusion. The information was collected by interviewing the Secretary-General of the Central Library and by distributing questionnaire forms to the (33) teaching staff of the College of Higher Education. The responses of the society were analyzed the result and the recommendations were the most important 1. Information specialist and all employees of the administrators and technicians in the centers of information sources (libraries) and in the field are considered scientific r

This study is about the role of the Internet in spreading rumors, especially through social networking sites "Facebook" model as the effectiveness of social networks lies in the speed of transmission of events; these two characteristics are important to the public, making the Internet a strong contender for television and its relationship with the public. That's why we find that the Internet today has become a fertile environment for the growth and spread of rumors. The more limited the platforms and places of publication, the greater the responsibility in the search for the original source in   spreading this or that rumor, as the Internet is considered an easy means in the production, spreading  and re-spreading  of

The effect of Wood Flour addition to the gamma alumina powder used in the preparation of gamma alumina (ɤ-Al₂O₃) catalyst carrier extrudates on the pore volume and BET surface area physical properties was investigated. Two parameters which are size of wood flour particles and its quantity were studied. The sizes of wood flour particles used are 150 µm, 212 µm and 500 µm and the weight percentage added to the gamma alumina powder during the preparation of the extrudates are (1%, 3%, 5% and 10%). The results showed that the addition of wood flour to the gamma alumina powder in order to get gamma alumina extrudates used as catalyst carrier is one of the successful methods to improve the pore volume