Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

The aim of the current research is to identify the effect of the active thinking model in the achievement of students of the fifth grade applied science of physics, and their pivotal thinking by verifying the two zero hypotheses, where there is no significant difference at the level of significance (0.05) between the average scores of the experimental group who studied physics using the active thinking model and the average scores of the control group students who studied the same material in the usual way in the achievement test, as well as in the pivotal thinking test. The research sample consisted of (77) students of the applied fifth grade students in two divisions (a) and (b), randomly selected (a) to be the experimental group, and (b)

The study aims to use the European Excellence Model (EFQM) in assessing the institutional performance of the National Center for Administrative Development and Information Technology in order to determine the gap between the actual reality of the performance of the Center and the standards adopted in the model, in order to know the extent to which the Center seeks to achieve excellence in performance to improve the level of services provided and the adoption of methods Modern and contemporary management in the evaluation of its institutional performance.

The problem of the study was the absence of an institutional performance evaluation system at the centre whereby weaknesses (areas of improvement) and st

The absorption spectrum for three types of metal ions in different concentrations has been studying experimentally and theoretically. The examination model is by Gaius model in order to find the best fitting curve and the equation controlled with this behavior. The three metal ions are (Copper chloride Cu⁺², Iron chloride Fe^+3, and Cobalt chloride Co⁺²) with different concentrations (10^-4, 10^-5, 10^-6, 10^-7) gm/m³. The spectroscopic study included UV-visible and fluorescence spectrum for all different concentrations sample. The results refer to several peaks that appear from the absorption spectrum in the high concentration of all metal ions solution.

The research (Anthropology and Representations of magic in Arab Theatrical Text, Harut and Marut's play as a Model) is concerned with studying magic and the forms of its presence in the theatrical text in different human cultures where it belongs. The research consists of four chapters.
The first chapter includes the research problem that revolves around the following questions: (what is the mechanism of employing magic anthropology and its representations in the Arab theatrical text Harut and Marut's play as a model?), and the research importance which is attributed to the necessity of studying (magic) in the Arab theatrical text as it is considered the inauguration of one of the social phenomena that many researchers in the field o