The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

Abstract

Through social service tasks for the elderly, it natural for elder people to have some attitudes about the quality and nature of provided services, whether negative or positive. Accordingly, the current research is an attempt to investigate the attitudes of the elderly toward the social service provided to them in the nursery homes. The research sample included 60 elderly people chosen from the nursey home at Al-Karrada district and then a scale of attitudes was administered to them that had proved its reliability and validity. The study concluded with a set of recommendations and suggestions were.

This study aimed for isolation and identification of Candida glabrata and identifying some virulence factors. The distribution of patients with candidemia thrush showed that the age group 50-65 years old recorded the highest incidence of candidiasis in female and male with leukemia by 50% and 37.9 % respectively compared to the lowest incidence of candidiasis in the age group under 17 years old in female and male 8.8% and 13.5%, respectively. While the age group between 5-8 years was high, reaching 18 cases of oral candidiasis and 42% of children with leukemia compared with the age group, which was the least, that reached 9 cases, 21%. The highest incidence of C. glabrata was 59 isolates of females and males with leukemia, while C. kefyer w

Determination of the level of adipokines (obestatin, vaspin, tumor necrosis factor-? and interleukin-6)in hypo-and hyperthyroid patients from Educational Baghdad Hospital in Baghdad City was investigated. Fifty patients with hypothyroidism and Fifty patients with hyperthyroidism were selected. A control group of thirty euthyroid persons was included. Blood was collected by vein puncture and serum was separated and stored at –20C. Adipokines (obestatin, vaspin, tumor necrosis factor-? and interleukin-6) were estimated using ELISA method. The findings show a significant (p<0.05) increase in obestatin level in hypothyroid patients, while there is no significant difference in hyperthyroid patientsas compared with the euthyroid subjects.

                           This research   included recent skills of transformed ieadership ,its five aspect and they are(transformed,speech of boos,chorus co-0perative work,behavior adjustment of values,common view point,understanding,and apologizing)Thescale is being made for these five aspects and it  done on sample of Baghdad university staff and the sample consist of(424)teacher of both genders.The study found out existence of  transformedskills of leadership    for  girls  .             &

Al-Yusifia river was assessed at three sampling stations with study period from Autumn 2010 to the end of Summer 2011. The present investigation was carried out on diversity of fungi and bacteria from Al-Yusifia river, Baghdad city. During the study, a total of 12 fungal genus and 6 bacterial genus were isolated during the year seasons. The dominant fungus at the three stations were Penicillium sp., then Rhizopus and Trichophyton   megninii while the dominant bacteria was Escherichia coli and Klebsiella sp.

            The higher