Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

       Personal intelligence is thinking about an other person , understanding him, have sympathy and differentiation between people, and to appreciate their own point of view, with the sensitivity to their motives, behavior, and goals, so this intelligence involves dealing with a person or group of persons effectively and in normal or logical manner.

      Emotions management is to achieve emotional balance by controlling the emotions continuously, self disciplining, keeping away from excitement sources, and dealing with bad situations in constructive way to achieve the psychological stability .  

• the study aims

The continuous pressure of work and daily life and the increasing financial and social stress that Iraqi women are experiencing (both inside and outside Iraq) is one of the main causes of anxiety, particularly in those of working class women. This group of women carry the burden of carrying out multiple roles and responsibilities at the same time. All this collectively make them more prone to developing anxiety compared to men. In addition, the physiological and psychological nature of women, as females, on top of the other roles in life, like being a wife or mother or daughter or sister, all add extra pressure on women especially for those who are considered as productive working individuals in the society. In order to study the relatio

This study was conducted in the poultry field of the College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences / University of Baghdad for the period from 10/15/2021 to 11/25/2021 in order to show the effect of adding different levels of Ganoderma lucidum to broiler diets on microbial and immunological In it, 200 unsexed (Ross 308) chicks of one day old breed were used, with a starting weight of (40) g. The chicks were distributed and randomly divided into four treatments with 50 birds for each treatment. One treatment included five replicates (10 birds/repeat) and the experiment treatments were T1, T2, and T3, T4 and the percentages of adding reishi mushrooms 0, 0.5, 1, 1.5 g/kg of feed respectively, and the birds were fed for the duration of the exper

This study has been carried out in the Station of Poultry Researches which is affiliated to the General Office of Agricultural Researches / Ministry of Agriculture during the period from 25/02/2019 to 08/04/2019 (42)days .Five hundred unsexed one day old chick of type (Ross 308) used in this study, and has been fed on diets which oleuropeinin has been added to it with the levels 2,2.5,3 and3.5 g/kg as a feed for the treatments T2 , T3 , T4 and T5 respectively and compared to the control treatment T1 which is devoid of addition, every treatment included Four replicates each one has 25 birds in order to study the effect of adding a various levels of oleuropein into the diet on the production and physiological performance for broilers. The res

Language and politics go hand in hand and learning and comprehending political genre is to learn a language created for codifying, extending and transmitting political discourse in any text/talk. Drawing upon the theoretical framework of Fairclough’s CDA and Rhetoric, the current study aims at investigating Donald Trump’s First Speech, from the point of frequency and functions of some rhetorical strategies (Parallelism, Anaphora and the Power of Three, Antithesis and Expletive, etc.), Nominalization, Passivization, We-groups and Modality as well as Lexical and Textual Analysis, presented to the UN delivered on Sep. 19, 2017. Specifically, the study seeks to determine: (1) how President Trump succeeded in conveying his notions an

This study explores the barriers to adopting green environmental criteria in Supplier Selection (SS) within the Iraqi food industry. It aims to enhance the understanding of sustainable supply chain management in developing nations, with a particular focus on the Iraqi context. A case study approach was utilized to identify eleven key green environmental criteria and 54 sub-criteria, alongside seven major barriers to their adoption. The Best–Worst Method (BWM) was employed to rank the criteria, and Fuzzy Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) was used to prioritize the barriers. The analysis revealed that Environmental Management Systems are the most critical criterion for SS. On the other hand, legislation and policies emerged

Cost is the essence of any production process for it is one of the requirements for the continuity of activities so as to increase the profitability of the economic unit and to support the competitive situation in the market. Therefore, there should be an overall control to reduce the cost without compromising the product quality; to achieve this, the management should have detailed credible and reliable information about the cost to be measured, collected, understood and to analyze the causes for the spread of deviations and obstacles the management faces, and to search for the factors that trigger the emergence of these deviations and obstacles

Abstract The results of isolation, morphological and microscopic diagnosis, Chromic Agar, Vitik technology and Bact Alert showed that the diagnosis of fungi isolated from blood samples of end-stage renal patients who did not undergo dialysis and those who underwent dialysis was 60 samples for each type. The total number of fungal isolates isolated from people who did not undergo dialysis was 26 pathogenic fungal isolates, with a percentage frequency of 43.33%. In this study, 4 genera of pathogenic fungi were identified: Candida spp, Rhodotorula spp, Cryptococcus spp. and Aspergillus spp. The number of Candida isolates reached 13 isolates, with a frequency of 50%. The results also showed that the diagnosed species from the genus Rhodotorula