The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

Abstract

The Purpose of This Research is The  Main Factors  In out Comes Phenomena From Primary School Which in Creased in Lost Period in Iraq And to Find Solutions to The This Problem.

In Order to Achieve Al The Aim The Research Choose a Systematic Random Sample of School Records For Students in Some Primary Schools in Karkh and Rusafa and Year of Study (2010-2015) and Size (40) Samples, included  (16) Variable , Collected in Form Prepared by The Research As a Way to Analyze The Data.

Remember to Summarize The (6) Main components Pay a Student to Drop out of Primary Schools in The Province of Baghdad are Arranged As Follows:

The research aims to
1 – The discloser  of the level of moral values in the children of kindergarten.
2 - Building an educational program designed to develop moral values on the children of kindergarten.

3 - Knowing the impact of the program in the development of moral values in children
Purposive sample was selected consisted of 40 children and a child aged 5-6 years and to achieve objectives of the research promising measure of the moral  values kindergarten has been applied to the children of the two groups was based on  pre and post test

Objective: To know the impact of social networks on the mental health of adolescents in the city of Diwaniyah.
Methodology: A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted on adolescents in preparatory schools in ALDiwaniyah
City Center, for the period from Jun 26, 2015 through to October 20, 2015. The schools were
selected from using Probability sampling (240 random samples) six schools were selected from 32 schools (20 %
from total number) the schools were chosen by writing the names of all schools on a pieces of paper and put in
bags. Then, selected six schools random, three boys schools (2 preparatory and 1 secondary) three girls schools
(2 preparatory and 1 secondary), then I chose the sample the students in grad

Abstract

Abstract has many advantages as has historically been one of the regions leading cultural centers . for centuries , it has been a center of commertial and financial operations in Iraq. it is also rich in archeological sites and natural resources, but because of its wars and implementation of urban development strategies are effective and sustainable , so contracted the secretariat of Baghdad with the company (khatib and scirntiffic) for the preparation of the comprehensive development plan for the city of Baghdad in 2030 and funded by the world bank and the fact that the plan was approved ( three stages of it ) and only one phase remains the fourth stage, which is under discussion the aim of the

Modern communication and media technology has pioneered new horizons and curried out deep changes in the various fields of social life, It effected enormously human communication as well.
Content one Who late the developments which have effected the social relations ،due to the new media ،especially Face book ,will certainly notice the far cry changes of the social relation net which has been effected ,in a way or another ،the accelerated development ،under the appearance of the so called the virtual society .
Face book has embodied the means – communication ,which has become an important turn point in the social communication .
It is the point the present paper tries to expose an discuss by a field study curried on a sam

The Purpose of this study is mainly to improve the competitive position of products economic units using technique target cost and method reverse engineering and through the application of technique and style on one of the public sector companies (general company for vegetable oils) which are important in the detection of prices accepted in the market for items similar products and processing the problem of high cost which attract managerial and technical leadership to the weakness that need to be improved through the introduction of new innovative solutions which make appropriate change to satisfy the needs of consumers in a cheaper way to affect the decisions of private customer to buy , especially of purchase private economic units to

ABSTRACTBackground : Acne vulgaris is a
common skin disease, affecting more than 85% of
adolescents and often continuing into adulthood.
People between 11 and 30 years of age and up to
5% of older adults. For most patients acne remains
a nuisance with occasional flares of unsightly
comedones, pustules and nodules. For other less
fortunate persons, the sever inflammatory response
to Propionibacterium acnes (P.acnes) results in
permanent
Methods: Disfiguring scars. (1, 2) Stigmata of sever
acne cane lead to social ostracism, withdrawal
from society and severe psychologic
depression (1-4).
Result Pathogenesis of acne Traditionally, acne
has been thought of as a multifactorial disease of
the fo

This research was conduct to evaluate the cytotoxic effect of exotoxin A (ETA) produced by Pseudomonas aeruginosa on mice in comparison with (phosphate buffer saline (PBS) as a negative control. The effect of the toxin was measured by employing the cytogenetic analysis which included (the mitotic index (MI), chromosomal aberrations (CAs), micronucleus (MN) and sperm abnormalities) parameters. In order to specify the cytotoxic effect of the toxin, three doses of ETA (125, 250 and 500 ng/ml) were used. Results showed that ETA was found to cause a significant decrease in mitotic index (MI) percentage, while significant increase in micronucleus (MN), chromosomal aberrations (CAs) and sperm abnormalities parameters in compression with control wa