In this paper we introduce a brief review about Box-Jenkins models. The acronym ARIMA stands for “autoregressive integrated moving averageâ€. It is a good method to forecast for stationary and non stationary time series. According to the data which obtained from Baghdad Water Authority, we are modelling two series, the first one about pure water consumption and the second about the number of participants. Then we determine an optimal model by depending on choosing minimum MSE as criterion.
Background: The main purpose of this study is to find if there is any correlation between the level of C-reactive protein (CRP) in gingival crevicular fluid with its serum level in chronic periodontitis patients and to explore the differences between them according to the probing depth. Materials and methods: Forty seven male subjects enrolled in this study. Thirty males with chronic periodontitis considered as study group whom further subdivided according to probing depth into subgroup 1 with pocket depth ≤6mm, subgroup 2 with pocket depth >6mm. The other 17 subjects considered as controls. For all subjects, clinical examination where done for periodontal parameters plaque index (PLI), gingival index (GI), bleeding on probing (BOP),
... Show MoreSoil improvement has developed as a realistic solution for enhancing soil properties so that structures can be constructed to meet project engineering requirements due to the limited availability of construction land in urban centers. The jet grouting method for soil improvement is a novel geotechnical alternative for problematic soils for which conventional foundation designs cannot provide acceptable and lasting solutions. The paper's methodology was based on constructing pile models using a low-pressure injection laboratory setup built and made locally to simulate the operation of field equipment. The setup design was based on previous research that systematically conducted unconfined compression testing (U.C.Ts.). Th
... Show MoreThe purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals
... Show MoreSewer systems are used to convey sewage and/or storm water to sewage treatment plants for disposal by a network of buried sewer pipes, gutters, manholes and pits. Unfortunately, the sewer pipe deteriorates with time leading to the collapsing of the pipe with traffic disruption or clogging of the pipe causing flooding and environmental pollution. Thus, the management and maintenance of the buried pipes are important tasks that require information about the changes of the current and future sewer pipes conditions. In this research, the study was carried on in Baghdad, Iraq and two deteriorations model's multinomial logistic regression and neural network deterioration model NNDM are used to predict sewers future conditions. The results of the
... Show MoreThe research aims to shed light on the possibility of measuring the intellectual capital in the Iraqi insurance company using accounting models, as well as disclosing it in the financial statements of the company, where human capital was measured using the present value factor model for discounted future revenues and the intellectual value-added factor model for measuring structural capital It was also disclosed in the financial statements based on the theory of stakeholders. The research problem lies in the fact that the Iraqi insurance company does not carry out the process of measuring and disclosing the intellectual capital while it is considered an important source for the company’s progress in the labor market recently. T
... Show MoreDiyala river is the most important tributaries in Iraq, this river suffering from pollution, therefore, this research aimed to predict organic pollutants that represented by biological oxygen demand BOD, and inorganic pollutants that represented by total dissolved solids TDS for Diyala river in Iraq, the data used in this research were collected for the period from 2011-2016 for the last station in the river known as D17, before the river meeting Tigris river in Baghdad city. Analysis Neural Network ANN was used in order to find the mathematical models, the parameters used to predict BOD were seven parameters EC, Alk, Cl, K, TH, NO3, DO, after removing the less importance parameters. While the parameters that used to predict TDS were fourte
... Show MoreThere is a great operational risk to control the day-to-day management in water treatment plants, so water companies are looking for solutions to predict how the treatment processes may be improved due to the increased pressure to remain competitive. This study focused on the mathematical modeling of water treatment processes with the primary motivation to provide tools that can be used to predict the performance of the treatment to enable better control of uncertainty and risk. This research included choosing the most important variables affecting quality standards using the correlation test. According to this test, it was found that the important parameters of raw water: Total Hardn