Time Series Forecasting by Using Box-Jenkins Models

Hazim  M. Gorgess; Raghad  I brahim

Details

Publication Date

Wed May 03 2017

Journal Name

Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences

Volume

26

Issue Number

1

Choose Citation Style

Statistics

View publication

8

View pdf

1

Abstract Views

111

Galley Views

156

Statistics

Time Series Forecasting by Using Box-Jenkins Models

Forecasting

Box-Jenkins

autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)

Autoregressive (AR)

moving average (MA)

autocorrelation function (ACF)

partial autocorrelation function (PACF)

Hazim M. Gorgess

Raghad I brahim

...Show More Authors

In this paper we introduce a brief review about Box-Jenkins models. The acronym ARIMA stands for â€œautoregressive integrated moving averageâ€. It is a good method to forecast for stationary and non stationary time series. According to the data which obtained from Baghdad Water Authority, we are modelling two series, the first one about pure water consumption and the second about the number of participants. Then we determine an optimal model by depending on choosing minimum MSE as criterion.

View Publication Preview PDF

Quick Preview PDF

Publication Date

Wed Jan 01 2020

Journal Name

Colloids And Surfaces A: Physicochemical And Engineering Aspects

Studies on membrane stability and extraction of ciprofloxacin from aqueous solution using pickering emulsion liquid membrane stabilized by magnetic nano-Fe2O3

Ahmed A.

Mohammed A.

Maad A.

...Show More Authors

View Publication

(49)

(45)

Publication Date

Mon Apr 06 2020

Journal Name

August

INFLUENCE OF SOME FACTOR ON SOMATIC EMBRYOS INDUCTION AND GERMINATION OF DATE PALM CV BARHI BY USING CELL SUSPENSION CULTURE TECHNIQUE

This study was done to examine different concentrations of mercuric chloride (Hgcl2) for Explants sterilization and different concentration of NAA) mg/L with 2iP for their effect on initiation primary callus and subsequent embryogenesis in Phoenix dactyliferae cultivar Barhi. Leaf primordial and shoot tips were excised from 2-3 years old offshoot. The result showed that contamination percentage decreased with an increase in concentration of Hgcl2 for two explants where in the control (0.0)% gave highest value 75% and 62.5% of contamination for leaf primordial and shoot tip respectively while the addition (0.1)% gave a significant decrease 37.5 and 0% for explants respectively. The Explants were inoculated onto Murashiege and Skoog

1962 (MS) medium supplemented with 2iP 3mg/L and containing 0

25

50 or 100 mg/L of NAA

the addition (50) mg/L of NAA gave highest value 68.8% in percentage of callus initiation with significant difference from addition 0% gave lowest value (18.8)%

as well Explants of shoot tip gave significant difference was 53.1% while leaf primordial gave 28.1%

Primary callus was transferred to fresh MS medium containing (0

5

10 and 20) mg/L of NAA with 3mg/L 2iP

Results were recorded after 12 weeks. A highest value of embryonic callus induction percentage or fresh weight and dry weight 87.5% or 1.56g and 0.47g for the character respectively for the treat 20 mg/L while control treatment 0.0 gave the lowest value 12.5% or 0.37g and 0.14g for same character respectively. Inoculated 1g fresh biomass into a 250 ml Erlenmeyer flask containing 50 ml MS liquid medium supplemented with NAA 20mg/L and agitated at 150 rpm by shaker to making suspension culture the measurements of packed cell volume ( pcv) or fresh and dry weight taken weekly for 12 weeks

maximum values were reached in the eighth week of PCV and fresh weight but the dry weight reached to highest value in seventh week

then the curve began to decline gradually until it reached stability in the last two weeks. The cell suspension was Diluted to different initial cell density of 100

500

10000

50000 and 100000 cells /ml with hemocytometer. The initial cell number of (10000) cells gave significant different of plating efficiency PE (11.6)% while (100) cells gave lowest value 1.8% of PE.

Ali A.

...Show More Authors

View Publication

Publication Date

Mon Dec 01 2014

Journal Name

Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences

Material Requirements Planning (MRP) for Electric Geyser Product by Using Goal Programming\ applicative research in the general company of electrical industrialization

تخطيط الاحتياجات من المواد (MRP)

برمجة الاهداف.

Material Requirements Planning

Goal Programming

وقاص سعد

نادية لطفي

منال داود

...Show More Authors

Material Requirements Planning System (MRP) is considered as one of the planning and controlling of production and inventory systems which is used to prepare plan of the final production requirements and its parts of subcomponents raw materials and the time at which it was needed for the purpose of preparing orders of production and purchase.

The problem of the present work is represented in the general company of electrical industrialization adoption of traditional methods and personal experience of the process of the products and\or purchase quantity and inventory quantities and limiting the required time for acquiring the required quantities of the materials and parts used in the finish product of the

View Publication Preview PDF

Publication Date

Fri Sep 17 2021

Journal Name

Journal Of Petroleum Exploration And Production Technology

Characterization of flow units, rock and pore types for Mishrif Reservoir in West Qurna oilfield, Southern Iraq by using lithofacies data

M S

Mehdi

M S

...Show More Authors

Abstract<p>This study has been accomplished by testing three different models to determine rocks type, pore throat radius, and flow units for Mishrif Formation in West Qurna oilfield in Southern Iraq based on Mishrif full diameter cores from 20 wells. The three models that were used in this study were Lucia rocks type classification, Winland plot was utilized to determine the pore throat radius depending on the mercury injection test (r35), and (FZI) concepts to identify flow units which enabled us to recognize the differences between Mishrif units in these three categories. The study of pore characteristics is very significant in reservoir evaluation. It controls the storage mechanism and reservoir fluid prope</p> ... Show More

View Publication

(21)

(20)

Publication Date

Mon May 01 2023

Journal Name

Chemical Engineering Research And Design

Treatment of petroleum refinery wastewater by electrofenton process using a low cost porous graphite air-diffusion cathode with a novel design

Marwa M.

Ali H.

...Show More Authors

View Publication

(21)

(23)

Publication Date

Sun Sep 06 2015

Journal Name

Baghdad Science Journal

Measurement of radon gas concentration in water and soil samples in AL-Najaf governorate by using nuclear track detector (CR-39)

Radon concentration

Soil

Radon exhalation rate

CR-39 nuclear track detector

Taghreed K.

...Show More Authors

The radon gas concentration in environmental samples soil and water of selected regions in Al-Najaf governorate was measured by using alpha-emitters registrations which are emitted form radon gas in (CR-39) nuclear track detector. The first part is concerned with the determination of radon gas concentration in soil samples, results of measurements indicate that the highest average radon concentration in soil samples was found in (Al-Moalmen) region which was (100.0±7.0 Bq/m3), while the lowest average radon concentration was found in (Al-Askary) region which was (38.5±4.7 Bq/m3), with an average value of (64.23±14.9 Bq/m3) ,the results show that the radon gas concentrations in soil is below the allowed limit from (ICRP) agency which is (

View Publication Preview PDF

(1)

Publication Date

Sun Oct 02 2016

Journal Name

Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches

The Effect of Driver and Posner Models in correcting Alternative Perceptions in Educational Psychology Material for the Students at the Institute of Fine Arts

Effect of Driver and Posner Models

زينب حمزة راجي

...Show More Authors

To achieve the goals, the researcher followed the design of equal and independent groups of partial control and post-test . The research has chosen the Institute of Fine Arts in the area Almansour area as deliberate sample where three sections of students have been chosen and the number of students is (69) students. The researcher conducted equivalence in the variables (age, and IQ , and the overall rate for grade III). in diagnostic phase, (21) concepts of alternative image out of (46) concepts have been identified in addition to the goals of formulation of acquisition concepts according to the three processes (definition, discrimination and application). Achievement test has been

View Publication Preview PDF

Publication Date

Fri Feb 01 2019

Journal Name

Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences

Comparison of estimations methods of the entropy function to the random coefficients for two models: the general regression and swamy of the panel data

الانتروبي

المعلمات العشوائية

البيانات المزدوجة

انموذج الانحدار

متوسط مربعات الخطأ

متوسط مطلق الخطأ النسبي .

Entropy

random coefficients

panel data

regression model

MSe

MAP.

محمد صادق

رحاب كاظم

...Show More Authors

In this study, we focused on the random coefficient estimation of the general regression and Swamy models of panel data. By using this type of data, the data give a better chance of obtaining a better method and better indicators. Entropy's methods have been used to estimate random coefficients for the general regression and Swamy of the panel data which were presented in two ways: the first represents the maximum dual Entropy and the second is general maximum Entropy in which a comparison between them have been done by using simulation to choose the optimal methods.

The results have been compared by using mean squares error and mean absolute percentage error to different cases in term of correlation valu

View Publication Preview PDF

Publication Date

Fri Jun 01 2012

Journal Name

Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences

The Effect of the Stability of Some Commodity Activities in Iraq on the Estimation of the Statistical Data Models for the Period (1988-2000)

الانشطة السلعية

Commodity Activities

احمد سلطان

هيثم يعقوب

...Show More Authors

There is an assumption implicit but fundamental theory behind the decline by the time series used in the estimate, namely that the time series has a sleep feature Stationary or the language of Engle Gernger chains are integrated level zero, which indicated by I (0). It is well known, for example, tables of t-statistic is designed primarily to deal with the results of the regression that uses static strings. This assumption has been previously treated as an axiom the mid-seventies, where researchers are conducting studies of applied without taking into account the properties of time series used prior to the assessment, was to accept the results of these tests Bmanueh and delivery capabilities based on the applicability of the theo

View Publication Preview PDF

Publication Date

Sun Sep 25 2022

Journal Name

Lubricants

Development of Hybrid Intelligent Models for Prediction Machining Performance Measure in End Milling of Ti6Al4V Alloy with PVD Coated Tool under Dry Cutting Conditions

Salah

Jaharah

Che Hassan

M. N.

Adnan Naji

Samaher M.

Mohd Shukor

M.

Oday I.

...Show More Authors

Ti6Al4V alloy is widely used in aerospace and medical applications. It is classified as a difficult to machine material due to its low thermal conductivity and high chemical reactivity. In this study, hybrid intelligent models have been developed to predict surface roughness when end milling Ti6Al4V alloy with a Physical Vapor Deposition PVD coated tool under dry cutting conditions. Back propagation neural network (BPNN) has been hybridized with two heuristic optimization techniques, namely: gravitational search algorithm (GSA) and genetic algorithm (GA). Taguchi method was used with an L27 orthogonal array to generate 27 experiment runs. Design expert software was used to do analysis of variances (ANOVA). The experimental data were

View Publication

(9)

(6)

1 2 ... 106 107 108 109 ... 623 624