The aim of our study is to solve a nonlinear epidemic model, which is the COVID-19 epidemic model in Iraq, through the application of initial value problems in the current study. The model has been presented as a system of ordinary differential equations that has parameters that change with time. Two numerical simulation methods are proposed to solve this model as suitable methods for solving systems whose coefficients change over time. These methods are the Mean Monte Carlo Runge-Kutta method (MMC_RK) and the Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta method (MLH_RK). The results of numerical simulation methods are compared with the results of the numerical Runge-Kutta 4th order method (RK4) from 2021 to 2025 using the absolute error, which proves that the MLH_RK method is the best and closest to the expected values. The results have been discussed after being tabulated and represented graphically. Epidemic behavior for the next two years until 2025 has been projected using the proposed methods.
Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ
... Show MoreIn this paper, we applied the concept of the error analysis using the linearization method and new condition numbers constituting optimal bounds in appraisals of the possible errors. Evaluations of finite continued fractions, computations of determinates of tridiagonal systems, of determinates of second order and a "fast" complex multiplication. As in Horner's scheme, present rounding error analysis of product and summation algorithms. The error estimates are tested by numerical examples. The executed program for calculation is "MATLAB 7" from the website "Mathworks.com
The state did not witness the emergence of independent bodies because of the nature of the ruling regimes that were characterized by political tyranny represented by the king at the time, as is the case with Greece and the Greeks and Persia and the Romans and others. As for the Islamic state, which emerged later, it saw the emergence of what looks like independent bodies that we see today, There was the so-called Diwan Al-Hesba and the Ombudsman's Office as an independent body from the Islamic State, which operated independently to support the oppressed and the equitable distribution of financial resources, even though it was headed by well-known governors of justice and honesty. A state in the modern era, many countries, especially in E
... Show MoreChronic viral hepatitis is an important health problem in the world, where hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections are the main causes of liver insufficiency. The study included 100 blood samples from patients with chronic viral hepatitis, fifty of them with HBV infection and 50 with HCV infection. Twenty apparently healthy age and gender matched subjects were included as a control group. Out of the 50 patients with HBV, 36(72%) were males and 14(28%) were females. Thirty two (64%) patients with HCV were males and 18(36%) were females. The mean age for HBV patients was 36.9 ± 15.8 year and for HCV patients it was 39.9 ±14.2 year. The results of the liver function tests showed no significant differ
... Show MoreTheatrical production mechanisms were determined according to the extents of the theatrical performance, the directing plan, and the ideas that the theatrical performance seeks to convey to the audience. Accordingly, theatrical production mechanisms differ between one theatrical performance and another according to the requirements of each of them and the surrounding circumstances that accompany the production of theatrical performance, and in order to search for production mechanisms and their repercussions on the show. Theatrical The current research was divided into four chapters, namely (Chapter One - Methodology), which identified the research problem in the following question: What are the production mechanisms and their implicatio
... Show MoreThe study aims to identify the degree of appreciation for the level of digital citizenship of a sample of Palestinian university students in the governorates of Gaza, and its relationship to the level of health awareness about the emerging coronavirus (covid-19). To achieve the objectives of the study, the researcher followed a descriptive approach by applying two questionnaires; the first, which consists of 30 items, was used to measure the level of digital citizenship. The second, which consists of 19 items, was used to measure the level of health awareness. Both questionnaires were applied on a sample of 367 students who were electronically selected using the manner simple randomness. Results have shown that the degr
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The issue of the protection of the environment is a shared responsibility between several destinations and sectors, and constitutes a main subject in which they can achieve sustainable development. In the sectors of government programs can be set up towards the establishment of the government sector to the green environment, so to be the implementati
... Show MoreThe objective of the study is to demonstrate the predictive ability is better between the logistic regression model and Linear Discriminant function using the original data first and then the Home vehicles to reduce the dimensions of the variables for data and socio-economic survey of the family to the province of Baghdad in 2012 and included a sample of 615 observation with 13 variable, 12 of them is an explanatory variable and the depended variable is number of workers and the unemployed.
Was conducted to compare the two methods above and it became clear by comparing the logistic regression model best of a Linear Discriminant function written
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The Non - Homogeneous Poisson process is considered as one of the statistical subjects which had an importance in other sciences and a large application in different areas as waiting raws and rectifiable systems method , computer and communication systems and the theory of reliability and many other, also it used in modeling the phenomenon that occurred by unfixed way over time (all events that changed by time).
This research deals with some of the basic concepts that are related to the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process , This research carried out two models of the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process which are the power law model , and Musa –okumto , to estimate th
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