There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
Thin films of pure polycarbonate (PC) with anthracene doping PC films for different doping ratios (10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 ml) were prepared by using a casting method. The influence of anthracene doping ratio on photo-fries rearrangement of polycarbonate was systematic investigated. Furthermore, pure PC and anthracene doping PC films were irradiated via UV light at a wavelength (254 nm) for different periods (5, 240, 288, and 360 hrs). The photo-fries rearrangement occurring in pure PC and anthracene doping PC films were monitored using UV and FTIR spectroscopies. The photo-fries rearrangement leads to scission the carbonate linkage and formation phenylsalicylate and dihydroxybenzophenes. The result of the UV spectrum confirms disappea
... Show MoreIn solar-thermal adsorption/desorption processes, it is not always possible to preserve equal operating times for the adsorption/desorption modes due to the fluctuating supply nature of the source which largely affects the system’s operating conditions. This paper seeks to examine the impact of adopting unequal adsorption/desorption times on the entire cooling performance of solar adsorption systems. A cooling system with silica gel–water as adsorbent-adsorbate pair has been built and tested under the climatic condition of Iraq. A mathematical model has been established to predict the system performance, and the results are successfully validated via the experimental findings. The results show that, the system can be operational
... Show Moreon this research is to study the effect of nickel oxide substitution on the pure phases superconductor Tl0.5Pb0.5Ba2Can-1Cun-xNixO2n+3-δ (n=3) where x=(0,0.2,0.4,0.6,0.8.and 1.0). The specimens in this work were prepared with used procedure of solid state reaction with sintering temperature 8500C for 24 h .we used technical (4-prob)to calculated and the critical temperature Tc . The results of the XRD diffraction analysis showed that the structure for pure and doped phases was tetragonal with phases high-Tc phase (1223),(1212) and low-Tc phase (1202) and add
... Show MoreThe effect of time (or corrosion products formation) on corrosion rates of carbon steel pipe in aerated 0.1N NaCl
solution under turbulent flow conditions is investigated. Tests are conducted using electrochemical polarization
technique by determining the limiting current density of oxygen reduction in Reynolds number range of 15000 to 110000
and temperature range of 30 to 60oC. The effect of corrosion products formation on the friction factor is studied and
discussed. Corrosion process is analyzed as a mass transfer operation and the mass transfer theory is employed to
express the corrosion rate. The results are compared with many proposed models particularly those based on the
concept of analogy among momentum, heat,
Nano-structural of vanadium pentoxide (V2O5) thin films were
deposited by chemical spray pyrolysis technique (CSPT). Nd and Ce
doped vanadium oxide films were prepared, adding Neodymium
chloride (NdCl3) and ceric sulfate (Ce(SO4)2) of 3% in separate
solution. These precursor solutions were used to deposit un-doped
V2O5 and doped with Nd and Ce films on the p-type Si (111) and
glass substrate at 250°C. The structural, optical and electrical
properties were investigated. The X-ray diffraction study revealed a
polycrystalline nature of the orthorhombic structure with the
preferred orientation of (010) with nano-grains. Atomic force
microscopy (AFM) was used to characterize the morphology of the
films. Un-do
An experiment was conducted to study how SAE 50 engine oil contaminated with diesel fuel affects engine performance. The engine oil was contaminated with diesel fuel at concentrations of 0%, 1%, and 3%. The following performance characteristics were studied: brake-specific fuel consumption, brake thermal efficiency, friction power, and exhaust gas temperature. Each treatment was tested three times. The three treatments (0%, 1%, and 3%) were analyzed statistically with a one-way ANOVA model at the 5% probability level to determine if the three treatments produced significant differences in engine performance. The statistical results showed that there were significant differences in engine performance metrics among the three treatments. The 3
... Show MoreThe research amid to find out the extent of Iraqi oil companies commitment to implement internal control procedures in accordance with the updated COSO framework. As the research problem was represented in the fact that many of the internal control procedures applied in the Iraqi oil companies are incompatible with most modern international frameworks for internal control, including the integrated COSO framework, issued by the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Tradeway Committee. The research followed the quantitative approach to handling and analysing data by designing a checklist to represent the research tool for collecting data. The study population was represented in the Iraqi oil companies, while the study sample
... Show MoreThe extraction of Eucalyptus oil from Iraqi Eucalyptus Camadulensis leaves was studded using water distillation methods. The amount of Eucalyptus oil has been determined in a variety of extraction temperature and agitation speed. The effect of water to Eucalyptus leaves (solvent to solid) ratio and particle size of Eucalyptus leaves has been studied in order to evaluate the amount of Eucalyptus oil. The optimum experimental condition for the Eucalyptus oil extraction was established as follows: 100 C extraction temperature, 200 rpm agitation speed; 0.5 cm leave particle size and 6: 1 ml: g amount of water to eucalyptus leaves Ratio.
To enlighten the extent of crude oil pollution effects on some anatomical characteristics of olive plant (Olea europaea ). Two years - old seedlings were chosen to grow under 5 levels of pollution (0.0, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0, liter/ plant). The experiment has been conducted in the experimental field of Natural History Research Center and Museum, University of Baghdad. It was designed as CRD experiment. Testing wood specimens were prepared after 2.5 years of growth. Fiber length, width, wall thickness, and wood specific gravity were measured. Results showed that olive plants could not resist the highest level ( 3 liters / plant ) of pollution .Fiber length was the most affected property by treatment. All fiber dimensions wer
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