There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
This study dealt with the management strategy as an independent variable and the integrated industrial distribution as a variable. The study aimed at finding the integrated industrial distribution that fits with the management strategy in providing the needs of the firm on the one hand and reducing the cost of management that is reflected in increasing its profits.
The researcher selected the data from (130) decision makers in the corporation and used the questionnaire as a tool for collecting data and used a set of statistical tools and tools suitable for the nature of information and were processed using the data analysis system (SPSS version 24) Based on the analysis of the responses of the sample and the test of correlation and
Variation orders are an on-going phenomenon in construction and industry projects worldwide, particularly in the province of Sulaimani, where the project's damage from cost and schedule overrun because of variation orders. However, the effect on project costs and time overrun of variation order has yet to be identified. This study evaluates the impact of variation orders on the cost and time off in the Sulaimani governorate. Two hundred twenty-eight projects from various construction sectors built between 2007-2012 were adopted to calculate the contract cost and schedule overruns due to variation orders. Data analysis was applied in the study were descriptive statistics. One-way ANOVA was also applied to determine w
... Show MoreCadmium oxide thin films were prepared by D.C magnetron plasma sputtering using different voltages (700, 800, 900, 1000, 1100 and 1200) Volt. The Cadmium oxide structural properties using XRD analysis for just a voltage of 1200 volt at room temperature after annealing in different temperatures (523 and 623) K were studied .The results show that the films prepared at room temperature have some peaks belong to cadmium element along the directions (002), (100), (102) and (103) while the other peaks along the directions of (111), (200) and (222) belong to cadmium oxide. Annealed samples display only cadmium oxide peaks. Also, the spectroscopic properties of plasma diagnostic for CdO thin films were determined and the results show that the el
... Show MoreAsphaltenes are a solubility class described as a component of crude oil with undesired characteristics. In this study, Sharqy Baghdad heavy oil upgrading was achieved utilizing the solvent deasphalting approach as asphaltenes are insoluble in paraffinic solvents; they may be removed from heavy crude oil by adding N-Hexane as a solvent to create deasphalted oil (DAO)of higher quality. This method is known as Solvent De-asphalting (SDA). Different effects have been assessed for the SDA process, such as solvent to oil ratio (4-16/1 ml/g), the extraction temperature (23 ºC) room temperature and (68 ºC) reflux temperature at (0.5 h mixing time with 400 rpm mixing speed). The best solvent deasphalting results were obtained at room temp
... Show MoreThe monogeneans Gyrodactylus dzhalilovi Ergens & Ashurova, 1984, G. magnus Konovalov, 1967 and G. matovi Ergens & Kakachava-Avramova, 1966 were recorded in this study for the first time in Iraq from gills of the common carp Cyprinus carpio Linnaeus, 1758 collected from Tigris River in Baghdad city. The description, measurements and illustrations of these parasites were given.
Research includes evaluation of projects implemented and which entered into trial operation period in accordance with the evaluation criteria and of (cost, quality and time) to determine the size deviations gap for the sample of projects during the years of assessment (2011-2012-2013-2014) of each of the three evaluation criteria, and then followed by a calculation the size of the overall gap to the problem based on the research problem to determine deviations from the specific implementation of each project by answering several questions to answer turns out the reasons for these deviations occur.
The importance of research Focus on the evaluation of received projects from contractors executing the projec
... Show MoreThe aim of the present study is to provide the adequate knowledge about the role of time management in facilitate the work requirements for employees of the administrative department at the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research. The research depend on studying four important dimensions which are (time planning, time organization, time direction and time observation). In addition to study other five dimensions which are (new procedures, clear procedures, short procedures, the available information and the simplicity of the methods
used).Questionnaire sheets consist of (38 questions) distributed to (170) employees and (146) sheets only were considered in the study. SPSS program was used
... Show Morestructural and electrical of CuIn (Sex Te1-x)2
Rare earth elements (Cerium, Lanthanum and Neodymium) doped CdS thin films are prepared using the chemical Spray Pyrolysis Method with temperature 200 oC. The X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis refers that pure CdS and CdS:Ce, CdS:La and CdS:Nd thin films showed the hexagonal crystalline phase. The crystallite size determined by the Debye-Scherrer equation and the range was (35.8– 23.76 nm), and it was confirmed by field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM). The pure and doped CdS shows a direct band gap (2.57 to 2.72 eV), which was obtained by transmittance. The room-temperature photoluminescence of pure and doped CdS shows large peak at 431 nm, and two small peaks at (530 and 610 nm). The Current – voltage measurement in da
... Show MoreThis work used the deposition method to synthesize nickel oxide nanoparticles. The materials mainly used in this study were nickel sulfate hexahydrate (as a precursor) and NaOH (as a precipitant). The properties of the nanopowder were characterized by XRD, FE-SEM, EDX, and VSM. The obtained results confirmed the presence of nickel oxide nanoparticles with a face-centered cubic (FCC) structure with a lattice constant (a=4.17834 Å). Scherer and Williamson-Hall equations were used to calculate the crystallite size of about (30.5-35.5) nm. The FE-SEM images showed that the particle shape had a ball-like appearance with a uniform and homogeneous distribution and confirmed that the particles were within the nanoscale. The presence of oxygen a
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