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jih-2631
Bayesian Structural Time Series for Forecasting Oil Prices
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There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.

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Publication Date
Sun May 18 2025
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study the effect of position on the time of astronomical twilight
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Twilight is that light appear on the horizon before sunrise and after sunset, Astronomically it is known that sunrise and sunset are effected by high above sea level, but the effect of high above sea level on the time of astronomical twilight still not decided and controversy among astronomers, in This research we studies the effect of high above sea level on the time of astronomical twilight, through adding the equation correct high above sea level to equation computation of twilight and then calculate of changing in the time of twilight for different highest (0-10000) meters above sea level , and the ratio of increase for time with high between (15.45-20.5) minutes. It was found that there was an increase in the time of the twilight along

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 29 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Prediction of Hydraulic Flow Units for Jeribe Reservoir in Jambour Oil Field Applying Flow Zone Indicator Method
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The Jeribe reservoir in the Jambour Oil Field is a complex and heterogeneous carbonate reservoir characterized by a wide range of permeability variations. Due to limited availability of core plugs in most wells, it becomes crucial to establish correlations between cored wells and apply them to uncored wells for predicting permeability. In recent years, the Flow Zone Indicator (FZI) approach has gained significant applicability for predicting hydraulic flow units (HFUs) and identifying rock types within the reservoir units.

   This paper aims to develop a permeability model based on the principles of the Flow Zone Indicator. Analysis of core permeability versus core porosity plot and Reservoir Quality Index (RQI) - Normalized por

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 12 2023
Journal Name
Energies
Finite Time Disturbance Observer Based on Air Conditioning System Control Scheme
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A novel robust finite time disturbance observer (RFTDO) based on an independent output-finite time composite control (FTCC) scheme is proposed for an air conditioning-system temperature and humidity regulation. The variable air volume (VAV) of the system is represented by two first-order mathematical models for the temperature and humidity dynamics. In the temperature loop dynamics, a RFTDO temperature (RFTDO-T) and an FTCC temperature (FTCC-T) are designed to estimate and reject the lumped disturbances of the temperature subsystem. In the humidity loop, a robust output of the FTCC humidity (FTCC-H) and RFTDO humidity (RFTDO-H) are also designed to estimate and reject the lumped disturbances of the humidity subsystem. Based on Lyapunov theo

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Molecular Liquids
The development of new homogenous and heterogeneous catalytic processes for the treatment of low grade palm oil
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Low grade crude palm oil (LGCPO) presents as an attractive option as feedstock for biodiesel production due to its low cost and non-competition with food resources. Typically, LGCPO contains high contents of free fatty acids (FFA), rendering it impossible in direct trans-esterification processes due to the saponification reaction. Esterification is the typical pre-treatment process to reduce the FFA content and to produce fatty acid methyl ester (FAME). The pre-treatment of LGCPO using two different acid catalysts, such as titanium oxysulphate sulphuric acid complex hydrate (TiOSH) and 5-sulfosalicylic acid dihydrate (5-SOCAH) was investigated for the first time in this study. The optimum conditions for the homogenous catalyst (5-SOCAH) wer

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Multiphase Flow Behavior Prediction and Optimal Correlation Selection for Vertical Lift Performance in Faihaa Oil Field, Iraq
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In the petroleum industry, multiphase flow dynamics within the tubing string have gained significant attention due to associated challenges. Accurately predicting pressure drops and wellbore pressures is crucial for the effective modeling of vertical lift performance (VLP). This study focuses on predicting the multiphase flow behavior in four wells located in the Faihaa oil field in southern Iraq, utilizing PIPESIM software. The process of selecting the most appropriate multiphase correlation was performed by utilizing production test data to construct a comprehensive survey data catalog. Subsequently, the results were compared with the correlations available within the PIPESIM software. The outcomes reveal that the Hagedorn and Brown (H

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2020
Journal Name
Ieee Transactions On Industrial Electronics
Finite-Time Continuous Terminal Sliding Mode Control of Servo Motor Systems
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In this article, a continuous terminal sliding mode control algorithm is proposed for servo motor systems. A novel full-order terminal sliding mode surface is proposed based on the bilimit homogeneous property, such that the sliding motion is finite-time stable independent of the system’s initial condition. A new continuous terminal sliding mode control algorithm is proposed to guarantee that the system states reach the sliding surface in finitetime. Not only the robustness is guaranteed by the proposed controller but also the continuity makes the control algorithm more suitable for the servo mechanical systems. Finally, a numerical example is presented to depict the advantages of the proposed control algorithm. An application in the rota

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Study the Effect of Catalyst -to- Oil Ratio Parameter (COR) on Catalytic Cracking of Heavy Vacuum Gas Oil
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This work deals with the production of light fuel cuts of (gasoline, kerosene and gas oil) by catalytic cracking treatment of secondary product mater (heavy vacuum gas oil) which was produced from the vacuum distillation unit in any petroleum refinery. The objective of this research was to study the effect of the catalyst -to- oil ratio parameter on catalytic cracking process of heavy vacuum gas oil feed at constant temperature (450 °C). The first step of this treatment was, catalytic cracking of this material by constructed batch reactor occupied with auxiliary control devices, at selective range of the catalyst –to- oil ratio parameter (  2, 2.5, 3 and 3.5) respectively.  The conversion of heavy vacuum gas

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Reducing of Manufacturing Lead Time by Implementation of Lean Manufacturing Principles
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Many organizations today are  interesting to implementing lean manufacturing principles  that should enable them to eliminating the wastes to reducing a  manufacturing lead time.  This paper concentrates on  increasing  the competitive level of the company in globalization markets and improving of the productivity by reducing the manufacturing lead time. This will be by using the main tool of lean manufacturing which is value stream mapping (VSM) to identifying all the activities of manufacturing process (value and non-value added activities) to reducing elimination of wastes (non-value added activities) by converting a manufacturing system to pull instead of push by applying some of pull system strategies a

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Equity financing within the framework the signal theory and its reflection on prices of stocks avarege: an empirical study in the Iraq stock exchange
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 Since there is no market for bond issuance by companies in the Iraqi market and the difficulty of borrowing, companies must resort to proprietary financing to finance their investments. However, in the framework of the literature of financial management, the type of financing used by the company sends signals to investors and therefore reflected on the market value. Therefore, the problem of the study revolves around the variables of the study (Equity financing within the framework the signal theory, price of common stock in the Iraqi market).     

The study aims to verify the impact of the capital increase through the issuance of new stock on the price of

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 30 2004
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Oil Removal from Wastewater of Al-Bezerqan Crude Oil Fields by Air Flotation
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