There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
The research risk of flooding on six water basins located in the eastern part of the western plateau, reached total area of the basin (22,998.9 km 2), has reached all the Basin area (basin to time 7056.1 km2 basin by 3585 km 2, Bath Alheiazi 6404 km 2, Abu beasts 544.1 km2 basin Abu Shannan 144.6 km 2, Bath Valley Faraj 5265.1 km 2), where it was specifically spatial degree of this risk by studying some of the hydrological basin transactions directly related to operations spate runoff study area and the occurrence of flood risks on the surface of ponds.
The PbSe alloy was prepared in evacuated quarts tubs by the method of melt quenching from element, the PbSe thin films prepared by thermal evaporation method and deposited at different substrate temperature (Ts) =R.T ,373 and 473K . The thin films that deposited at room temperature (R.T=303)K was annealed at temperature, Ta= R.T, 373 and 473K . By depended on D.C conductivity measurements calculated the density of state (DOS), The density of extended state N(Eext) increases with increasing the Ts and Ta, while the density of localized state N(Eloc) is decreased . We investigated the absorption coefficient (?) that measurement from reflection and transmission spectrum result, and the effect of Ts and Ta on it , also we calculated the tai
... Show MoreThe goal of the research is to develop a sustainable rating system for roadway projects in Iraq for all of the life cycle stages of the projects which are (planning, design, construction and operation and maintenance). This paper investigates the criteria and its weightings of the suggested roadway rating system depending on sustainable planning activities. The methodology started in suggesting a group of sustainable criteria for planning stage and then suggesting weights from (1-5) points for each one of it. After that data were collected by using a closed questionnaire directed to the roadway experts group in order to verify the criteria weightings based on the relative importance of the roadway related impacts
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This paper follows the growing interest and continuity of Islamic finance products worldwide, which has encouraged the formulation of financial institutions based on the concepts of Islamic Sharia in many countries of the world and is no longer limited to Islamic countries only, and Not exclusive to Muslims which is due to Islamic finance services and their ability to apply in non-Islamic societies, and perhaps what encouraged the development and progress of this industry Islamic history, which was attended by many different models With the development of trade's share between different countries as well as trips carried out by Muslims
... Show MoreIn the present article, Nano crystalline SnS and SnS:3% Bi thin films were fabricated using thermal
evaporation with 400±20 nm thickness at room temperature at a rate deposition rate of 0.5 ±0.01nm
/sec then annealing for one hour at 573 K for photovoltaic application. The prepared samples were
characterized in order to investigate the structural, electrical, morphological, and optical properties
using diverse techniques. XRD and SEM were recorded to investigate the effect of doping and
annealing on structural and morphological possessions, respectively. XRD showed an SnS phase
with polycrystalline and appeared to form an orthorhombic structure, with the distinguish trend
along the (111) grade,
The performance of a condenser in a domestic refrigerator system without wires and a condenser with a novel design consisted of number of loops as elliptical shape is investigated experimentally in this work. The experiment was conducted with a refrigerator designed to work with HFC134a, under no load and with loads of (1.5,3 and 12 liters of water). In particular, the effects of shape change of the condenser were very important in heat transfer enhancement and reduce of the frictional loss as a result of reducing the pressure drop in the condenser. The results shown that compressor work decreases with elliptical condenser about (8.6% to 11.3%), and then the power consumption decreases also. The performance of household refrigerator with
... Show MoreDue to the intensity of competition between economic units that run the trade in durable goods had to pay a lot of these companies to follow the new selling methods aimed at attracting customers to be able to increase its sales and thereby increase their profits , these methods are installment sales, which had been in great demand by the customers with limited income, who provides them with the possibility of possession and use of such goods and to postpone the full amount of the payment to the seller, This transaction sales have grown even became installment sales system at the present time of the common types of sales transactions and deployed a lot in our environment and in many sectors of the market, and in some cases m
... Show MoreBecause of the experience of the mixture problem of high correlation and the existence of linear MultiCollinearity between the explanatory variables, because of the constraint of the unit and the interactions between them in the model, which increases the existence of links between the explanatory variables and this is illustrated by the variance inflation vector (VIF), L-Pseudo component to reduce the bond between the components of the mixture.
To estimate the parameters of the mixture model, we used in our research the use of methods that increase bias and reduce variance, such as the Ridge Regression Method and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method a
... Show MoreThe aim of our study is to solve a nonlinear epidemic model, which is the COVID-19 epidemic model in Iraq, through the application of initial value problems in the current study. The model has been presented as a system of ordinary differential equations that has parameters that change with time. Two numerical simulation methods are proposed to solve this model as suitable methods for solving systems whose coefficients change over time. These methods are the Mean Monte Carlo Runge-Kutta method (MMC_RK) and the Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta method (MLH_RK). The results of numerical simulation methods are compared with the results of the numerical Runge-Kutta 4th order method (RK4) from 2021 to 2025 using the absolute error, which prove
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