There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
Sliding Mode Controller (SMC) is a simple method and powerful technique to design a robust controller for nonlinear systems. It is an effective tool with acceptable performance. The major drawback is a classical Sliding Mode controller suffers from the chattering phenomenon which causes undesirable zigzag motion along the sliding surface. To overcome the snag of this classical approach, many methods were proposed and implemented. In this work, a Fuzzy controller was added to classical Sliding Mode controller in order to reduce the impact chattering problem. The new structure is called Sliding Mode Fuzzy controller (SMFC) which will also improve the properties and performance of the classical Sliding Mode control
... Show MoreFor many problems in Physics and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), providing an accurate approximation of derivatives is a challenging task. This paper presents a class of high order numerical schemes for approximating the first derivative. These approximations are derived based on solving a special system of equations with some unknown coefficients. The construction method provides numerous types of schemes with different orders of accuracy. The accuracy of each scheme is analyzed by using Fourier analysis, which illustrates the dispersion and dissipation of the scheme. The polynomial technique is used to verify the order of accuracy of the proposed schemes by obtaining the error terms. Dispersion and dissipation errors are calculated
... Show MoreIn modern hydraulic control systems, the trend in hydraulic power applications is to improve efficiency and performance. “Proportional valve” is generally applied to pressure, flow and directional-control valves which continuously convert a variable input signal into a smooth and proportional hydraulic output signal. It creates a variable resistance (orifice) upstream and downstream of a hydraulic actuator, and is meter in/meter out circuit and hence pressure drop, and power losses are inevitable. If velocity (position) feedback is used, flow pattern control is possible. Without aforementioned flow pattern, control is very “loose” and relies on “visual” feed back by the operator. At this point, we should examine how this valv
... Show MoreObjective(s): To determine the quality of life for adults with a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Methodology: A descriptive study was carried out on (80) patients with a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease from
December 2008 through October 2009 with special inclusion criteria (adult paƟents from 18 years and above exclude
the patients who suffer complication related of disease and from psychological problems and other chronic illnesses.
The data were analyzed through the application of descriptive data analysis approach and inferential data approach.
Result: The study indicated that the determination of QoL for COPD depended on the level of effect .The grades
according to R.S are: "high" effect of disease in
This research aims to identify the cognitive distortion of kindergarten children and its relationship to their parenting reinforcement. The researcher used the descriptive approach, being the closest to reaching the study objectives, To measure the relationship between the research variables, the researcher prepared two questionnaire tools for this purpose, the first for measuring "cognitive distortion", And the second is to measure "parental reinforcement", and each tool consisted of (20) items.
After ensuring the validity and reliability of the two research tools and their suitabi
... Show MoreThe main work of this paper is devoted to a new technique of constructing approximated solutions for linear delay differential equations using the basis functions power series functions with the aid of Weighted residual methods (collocations method, Galerkin’s method and least square method).
The aim of the current research is to verify the effect of the cognitive modeling strategy on the achievement of the chemistry course for the students of the first intermediate grade. To achieve the objective of the research, the null hypothesis was formulated via cognitive modeling strategy. The results showed that the experimental group's students performed better than the students in the control group. In the light of the results, the researchers concluded: The impact of the cognitive modeling strategy in the achievement of students of first intermediate grade in chemistry.
Cox regression model have been used to estimate proportion hazard model for patients with hepatitis disease recorded in Gastrointestinal and Hepatic diseases Hospital in Iraq for (2002 -2005). Data consists of (age, gender, survival time terminal stat). A Kaplan-Meier method has been applied to estimate survival function and hazerd function.
In this work, we first construct Hermite wavelets on the interval [0,1) with it’s product, Operational matrix of integration 2^k M×2^k M is derived, and used it for solving nonlinear Variational problems with reduced it to a system of algebric equations and aid of direct method. Finally, some examples are given to illustrate the efficiency and performance of presented method.
content Analysis for Some Type of Pillows used in Iraqi houses