There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
This study investigates the application of hydraulic acid fracturing to enhance oil production in the Mishrif Formation of the Al-Fakkah oilfield due to declining flow rates and wellhead pressures resulting from asphaltene deposition and inadequate permeability. Implementing acid fracturing, an established technique for low-permeability carbonate reserves, was essential due to the inadequacy of prior solvent cleaning and acidizing efforts. The document outlines the protocols established prior to and following the treatment, emphasizing the importance of careful oversight to guarantee safety and efficacy. In the MiniFrac treatment, 150 barrels of #30 cross-linked gel were injected at 25 barrels per minute, followed by an overflush wi
... Show MoreIntelligent or smart completion wells vary from conventional wells. They have downhole flow control devices like Inflow Control Devices (ICD) and Interval Control Valves (ICV) to enhance reservoir management and control, optimizing hydrocarbon output and recovery. However, to explain their adoption and increase their economic return, a high level of justification is necessary. Smart horizontal wells also necessitate optimizing the number of valves, nozzles, and compartment length. A three-dimensional geological model of the As reservoir in AG oil field was used to see the influence of these factors on cumulative oil production and NPV. After creating the dynamic model for the As reservoir using the program Petrel (2017.4), we
... Show Moreيهدف البحث الى تقديم استراتيجية مقترحة لشركة نفط الشمال ، وأخذت الاستراتيجية المقترحة بنظر الاعتبار الظروف البيئية المحيطة واعتمدت في صياغتها على اسس وخطوات علمية تتسم بالشمولية والواقعية ، اذ انها غطت الانشطة الرئيسية في الشركة (نشاط الانتاج والاستكشاف , نشاط التكرير والتصفية , التصدير ونقل النفط , نشاط البحث والتطوير , النشاط المالي , تقنية المعلومات , الموارد البشرية ) وقد اعتمد نموذج (David) في التحليل البيئي
... Show MoreThe research aims to present a proposed strategy for the North Oil Company, and the proposed strategy took into account the surrounding environmental conditions and adopted in its formulation on the basis and scientific steps that are comprehensive and realistic, as it covered the main activities of the company (production and exploration activities, refining and refining activities, export and transport of oil, research and development activity, financial activity, information technology, human resources) and the (David) model has been adopted in the environmental analysis of the factors that have been diagnosed according to a
... Show MoreDr. Qahtan Al-Madfa’i’s architecture has been characterized by a particular characteristic that may be unique and extreme at the same time, that is the use of the distinctive three-dimensional structural coverings and the exploitation of structural construction to give an extra aesthetic touch to the composition of the building, to achieve the application of his universal ideas, which he strongly believed and defended.
In the period of the marked urban decline that the country undergoes now, which urges us toward making a comparison between the beginning of the modern Iraqi architecture and its ascending path up to its peak and the periods of its decline until it reached a very
... Show MoreIn this paper, an adaptive active disturbance rejection control is newly designed for precise angular steering position tracking of the uncertain and nonlinear SBW system with time delay communications. The proposed adaptive active disturbance rejection control comprises the following two elements: (1) An adaptive extended state observer and (2) an adaptive state error feedback controller. The adaptive extended state observer with adaptive gains is employed for estimating the unmeasured velocity, acceleration, and compound disturbance which consists of system parameter uncertainties, nonlinearities, exterior disturbances, and time delay in which the observer gains are dynamically adjusted based on the estimation error to enhance est
... Show MoreThe compressive residual stresses generated by shot peening, is increased in a direct proportional way with shot peening time (SPT). For each metal, there is an optimum shot peening time (O.S.T) which gives the optimum fatigue life. This paper experimentally studied to optimize shot peening time of aluminium alloy 6061-T651 as well as using of and analysis of variance (ANOVA).
Two types of fatigue test specimens’ configuration were used, one without notch (smooth) and the other with a notch radius (1,25mm), each type was shot peened at different time. The (O.S.T) was experimentally estimated to be 8 minutes reaching the surface stresses at maximum peak of -184.94 MPa.
A response surface methodology (RSM) is presen
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