There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
Moisture damage is one of the most significant troubles that destroy asphaltic pavement and reduces road serviceability. Recently, academics have noticed a trend to utilize fibers to enhance the efficiency of asphalt pavement. This research explores the effect of low-cost ceramic fiber, which has high tensile strength and a very high thermal insulation coefficient, on the asphalt mixture's characteristics by adding three different proportions (0.75%, 1.5%, and 2.25%). The Marshall test and the Tensile Strength Ratio Test (TSR) were utilized to describe the impact of ceramic fiber on the characteristics of Marshall and the moisture susceptibility of the hot mix asphalt mixture. The Field Emission Scanning Electron Microsc
... Show MoreIn this work, a simple and new method is proposed to simultaneously improve the physical layer security and the transmission performance of the optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing system, by combining orthogonal frequency division multiplexing technique with chaotic theory principles. In the system, a 2-D chaotic map is employed. The introduced system replaces complex operations such as matrix multiplication with simple operations such as multiplexing and inverting. The system performance in terms of bit error rate (BER) and peak to average ratio (PAPR) is enhanced. The system is simulated using Optisystem15 with a MATLAB2016 and for different constellations. The simulation results showed that the BE
... Show MoreWe propose a new object tracking model for two degrees of freedom mechanism. Our model uses a reverse projection from a camera plane to a world plane. Here, the model takes advantage of optic flow technique by re-projecting the flow vectors from the image space into world space. A pan-tilt (PT) mounting system is used to verify the performance of our model and maintain the tracked object within a region of interest (ROI). This system contains two servo motors to enable a webcam rotating along PT axes. The PT rotation angles are estimated based on a rigid transformation of the the optic flow vectors in which an idealized translation matrix followed by two rotational matrices around PT axes are used. Our model was tested and evaluated
... Show MoreThe research focuses on determination of best location of high elevated tank using the required head of pump as a measure for this purpose. Five types of network were used to find the effect of the variation in the discharge and the node elevation on the best location. The most weakness point was determined for each network. Preliminary tank locations were chosen for test along the primary pipe with same interval distance. For each location, the water elevation in tank and pump head was calculated at each hour depending on the pump head that required to achieve the minimum pressure at the most weakness point. Then, the sum of pump heads through the day was determined. The results proved that there is a most economical lo
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This paper presents mechanical and electrical design, and implementation process of industrial robot, 3-DoF type SCARA (selective compliment assembly robot arm),with two rotations and one translation used for welding applications.The design process also included the controller design which was based on PLC(programmable logic controller) as well as selection of mechanical and electrical components.The challenge was to use the available components in Iraq with reasonable costs. The robot mentioned is fully automated using programmable logic controller PLC(Zelio type SR3-B261BD),with 16inputs and 10 outputs. The PLC was implemented in FBD logic to obtain three different automatic motions with hi
... Show More<span lang="EN-US">The use of bio-signals analysis in human-robot interaction is rapidly increasing. There is an urgent demand for it in various applications, including health care, rehabilitation, research, technology, and manufacturing. Despite several state-of-the-art bio-signals analyses in human-robot interaction (HRI) research, it is unclear which one is the best. In this paper, the following topics will be discussed: robotic systems should be given priority in the rehabilitation and aid of amputees and disabled people; second, domains of feature extraction approaches now in use, which are divided into three main sections (time, frequency, and time-frequency). The various domains will be discussed, then a discussion of e
... Show MoreThis paper investigates an effective computational method (ECM) based on the standard polynomials used to solve some nonlinear initial and boundary value problems appeared in engineering and applied sciences. Moreover, the effective computational methods in this paper were improved by suitable orthogonal base functions, especially the Chebyshev, Bernoulli, and Laguerre polynomials, to obtain novel approximate solutions for some nonlinear problems. These base functions enable the nonlinear problem to be effectively converted into a nonlinear algebraic system of equations, which are then solved using Mathematica®12. The improved effective computational methods (I-ECMs) have been implemented to solve three applications involving
... Show MoreAlginate is one of the natural biopolymers that is widely used for drug formulations, combination of alginate with other polymers, such as gum acacia, pectin, and carrageenan can increase mechanical strength, therefore, can reduce leakage of the encapsulated active pharmaceutical ingredient from the polymer matrix. Interaction of alginate and these polymers can occur via intermolecular hydrogen bonds causing synergism, which is determined from the viscosity of polymer mixture.
Alginate was combined with gum acacia/pectin/carrageenan in different blending ratios (100:0, 75:25, 50:50, 25:75, and 0:100) with and without addition of CaCl2. The synergism effect is obtained from the design of experimental (DoE), and calculati
... Show MoreThe growth curves of the children are the most commonly used tools to assess the general welfare of society. Particularity child being one of the pillars to develop society; through these tools, we can path a child's growth physiology. The Centile line is of the important tools to build these curves, which give an accurate interpretation of the information society, also respond with illustration variable age. To build standard growth curves for BMI, we use BMI as an index. LMSP method used for finding the Centile line which depends on four curves represents Median, Coefficient of Variation, Skews, and Kurtosis. These can be obtained by modeling four parameters as nonparametric Smoothing functions for the illustration variable. Ma
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