There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
This research aims to know the intellectual picture the displaced people formed about aid organizations and determine whether they were positive or negative, the researchers used survey tool as standard to study the society represented by displaced people living in Baghdad camps from Shiites, Sunnis, Shabak, Turkmen, Christians, and Ezidis.
The researcher reached to important results and the most important thing he found is that displaced people living in camps included in this survey hold a positive opinion about organizations working to meet their demands but they complain about the shortfall in the health care side.
The research also found that displaced people from (Shabak, Turkmen, and Ezidi) minorities see that internati
The agent-based modeling is currently utilized extensively to analyze complex systems. It supported such growth, because it was able to convey distinct levels of interaction in a complex detailed environment. Meanwhile, agent-based models incline to be progressively complex. Thus, powerful modeling and simulation techniques are needed to address this rise in complexity. In recent years, a number of platforms for developing agent-based models have been developed. Actually, in most of the agents, often discrete representation of the environment, and one level of interaction are presented, where two or three are regarded hardly in various agent-based models. The key issue is that modellers work in these areas is not assisted by simulation plat
... Show MoreThe study of the characteristics of the heritage fabric is one of the important things in studies of conservation and rehabilitative use. There are three main elements of rehabilitation and they are considered the basis for achieving the rehabilitation process and these elements are (development, sustainability, participation) and that the first item addressed in the research is heritage and urban fabric in heritage areas where characteristics have been studied And a problem, while the second term is rehabilitation, where the concept of rehabilitation, the types and causes of the process of rehabilitation and the benefits and qualifications that affect the urban fabric that are represented (social, economic, religious and political) were
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We have presented the distribution of the exponentiated expanded power function (EEPF) with four parameters, where this distribution was created by the exponentiated expanded method created by the scientist Gupta to expand the exponential distribution by adding a new shape parameter to the cumulative function of the distribution, resulting in a new distribution, and this method is characterized by obtaining a distribution that belongs for the exponential family. We also obtained a function of survival rate and failure rate for this distribution, where some mathematical properties were derived, then we used the method of maximum likelihood (ML) and method least squares developed (LSD)
... Show MoreAir pollution refers to the release of pollutants into the air that are detrimental to human health and the planet as a whole.In this research, the air pollutants concentration measurements such as Total Suspended Particles(TSP), Carbon Monoxides(CO),Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and meteorological parameters including temperature (T), relative humidity (RH) and wind speed & direction were conducted in Baghdad city by several stations measuring numbered (22) stations located in different regions, and were classified into (industrial, commercial and residential) stations. Using Arc-GIS program ( spatial Analyses), different maps have been prepared for the distribution of different pollutant
The purpose of the study is the city of Baghdad, the capital of Iraq, was chosen to study the spectral reflection of the land cover and to determine the changes taking place in the areas of the main features of the city using the temporal resolution of multispectral bands of the satellite Landsat 5 and 8 for MSS and OLI sensors respectively belonging to NASA and for the period 1999-2021, and calculating the increase and decrease in the basic features of Baghdad. The main conclusions of the study were, This study from 1999 to 2021 and in two different seasons: the Spring of the growing season and Summer the dry season. When using the supervised classification method to determine the differences, the results showed remarkable changes. Where h
... Show MoreMicroencapsulated of paraffin wax which acts as core material of phase change
material covered by polymer was prepared by using rabid (physical-chemical) with lower
energy (green) method. Prepolymer of condensed Melamine-Formaldehyde resin, was
solidified by heat effect gradually and surrounds the Paraffin wax as microcapsules. The
diameter of the prepared capsules was about (170-220) micron which has a proportion with
the prepolymer temperature, otherwise the thermal analysis appears as a best value of
enthalpy (ΔH) which was (12 J/gm) when the prepolymer temperature was (60˚C)
In this paper we estimate the coefficients and scale parameter in linear regression model depending on the residuals are of type 1 of extreme value distribution for the largest values . This can be regard as an improvement for the studies with the smallest values . We study two estimation methods ( OLS & MLE ) where we resort to Newton – Raphson (NR) and Fisher Scoring methods to get MLE estimate because the difficulty of using the usual approach with MLE . The relative efficiency criterion is considered beside to the statistical inference procedures for the extreme value regression model of type 1 for largest values . Confidence interval , hypothesis testing for both scale parameter and regression coefficients
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