There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
Electromyogram (EMG)-based Pattern Recognition (PR) systems for upper-limb prosthesis control provide promising ways to enable an intuitive control of the prostheses with multiple degrees of freedom and fast reaction times. However, the lack of robustness of the PR systems may limit their usability. In this paper, a novel adaptive time windowing framework is proposed to enhance the performance of the PR systems by focusing on their windowing and classification steps. The proposed framework estimates the output probabilities of each class and outputs a movement only if a decision with a probability above a certain threshold is achieved. Otherwise (i.e., all probability values are below the threshold), the window size of the EMG signa
... Show MoreIn this study, the four tests employed for non-linear dependence which is Engle (1982), McLeod &Li (1983), Tsay (1986), and Hinich & Patterson (1995). To test the null hypothesis that the time series is a serially independent and identical distribution process .The linear structure is removed from the data which is represent the sales of State Company for Electrical Industries, through a pre-whitening model, AR (p) model .From The results for tests to the data is not so clear.
The current research aims to determine the necessary linguistic competencies for Arabic language teachers of the preparatory stage (fourth grade preparatory), which were five main competencies: Arabic grammar competencies, literary competencies, cultural competencies, rhetorical competencies, and expression competencies. To achieve the objective of the research, the researcher developed a questionnaire as the main tool for collecting data based on literature, it consists of (28) items including the five main competencies. The questionnaire was administered to (60) male and female teachers at Al-Karkh's first Education Directorate in the city of Baghdad. The findings of the research indicated that Arabic language proficiency got the highe
... Show MoreThe present work is to investigate the feasibility of removal vanadium (V) and nickel (Ni) from Iraqi heavy gas oil using activated bentonite. Different operating parameters such as the degree of bentonite activation, activated bentonite loading, and operating time was investigated on the effect of heavy metal removal efficiency. Experimental results of adsorption test show that Langmuir isotherm predicts well the experimental data and the maximum bentonite uptake of vanadium was 30 mg/g. The bentonite activated with 50 wt% H2SO4 shows a (75%) removal for both Ni and V. Results indicated that within approximately 5 hrs, the vanadium removal efficiencies were 33, 45, and 60% at vanadium loadings of 1
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to study the comparison between (ARIMA) Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average and(ANNs) Artificial Neural Networks models and to select the best one for prediction the monthly relative humidity values depending upon the standard errors between estimated and observe values . It has been noted that both can be used for estimation and the best on among is (ANNs) as the values (MAE,RMSE, R2) is )0.036816,0.0466,0.91) respectively for the best formula for model (ARIMA) (6,0,2)(6,0,1) whereas the values of estimates relative to model (ANNs) for the best formula (5,5,1) is (0.0109, 0.0139 ,0.991) respectively. so that model (ANNs) is superior than (ARIMA) in a such evaluation.
ABSTRUCT
In This Paper, some semi- parametric spatial models were estimated, these models are, the semi – parametric spatial error model (SPSEM), which suffer from the problem of spatial errors dependence, and the semi – parametric spatial auto regressive model (SPSAR). Where the method of maximum likelihood was used in estimating the parameter of spatial error ( λ ) in the model (SPSEM), estimated the parameter of spatial dependence ( ρ ) in the model ( SPSAR ), and using the non-parametric method in estimating the smoothing function m(x) for these two models, these non-parametric methods are; the local linear estimator (LLE) which require finding the smoo
... Show MoreIn this work, we prove that the triple linear partial differential equations (PDEs) of elliptic type (TLEPDEs) with a given classical continuous boundary control vector (CCBCVr) has a unique "state" solution vector (SSV) by utilizing the Galerkin's method (GME). Also, we prove the existence of a classical continuous boundary optimal control vector (CCBOCVr) ruled by the TLEPDEs. We study the existence solution for the triple adjoint equations (TAJEs) related with the triple state equations (TSEs). The Fréchet derivative (FDe) for the objective function is derived. At the end we prove the necessary "conditions" theorem (NCTh) for optimality for the problem.
There are many tools and S/W systems to generate finite state automata, FSA, due to its importance in modeling and simulation and its wide variety of applications. However, no appropriate tool that can generate finite state automata, FSA, for DNA motif template due to the huge size of the motif template. In addition to the optional paths in the motif structure which are represented by the gap. These reasons lead to the unavailability of the specifications of the automata to be generated. This absence of specifications makes the generating process very difficult. This paper presents a novel algorithm to construct FSAs for DNA motif templates. This research is the first research presents the problem of generating FSAs for DNA motif temp
... Show More