There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
In this study, gamma-ray spectrometry with an HPGe detector was used to measure the specific activity concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th, and 40K in soil samples collected from IT1 oil reservoirs in Kirkuk city, northeast Iraq. The “spectral line Gp” gamma analysis software package was used to analyze the spectral data. 226Ra specific activity varies from 9 0.34 Bq.kg-1 to 17 0.47 Bq.kg-1. 232Th specific activity varies from 6.2 0.08 Bq.kg-1 to 18 0.2 Bq.kg-1. 40K specific activity varies from 25 0.19 Bq.kg-1 to 118 0.41 Bq.kg-1. The radiological hazard due to the radiation emitted from natural r
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The research aims at the relationship between Servant leadership dimensions test as an independent variable and an organizational trust as a variable dependent. Thus it was necessary to answer the following question: Is there a correlation relationship and impact between Servant leadership dimensions and organizational trust? To investigate the contents of the answer, the researcher selected a group of employees in Oil Products Distribution Company / Baghdad. The researcher adopted the analytical descriptive approach in completing his research which dealt with a random sample of (190) individuals representing the research society out of the total number of (376) person from the middle and high Leaders. Depending
... Show MoreIn recent years, non-oil primary balance indicator has been given considerable financial important in rentier state. It highly depends on this indicator to afford a clear and proper picture of public finance situation in term of appropriate and sustainability in these countries, due to it excludes the effect of oil- rental from compound of financial accounts which provide sufficient information to economic policy makers of how economy is able to create potential added value and then changes by eliminating one sided shades of economy. In Iraq, since, 2004, the deficit in value of this indicator has increased, due to almost complete dependence on the revenues of the oil to finance the budget and the obvious decline of the non-oil s
... Show MoreThe Carbonate-clastic succession in this study is represented by the Shuaiba and Nahr Umr Formations deposited during the Albian - Aptian Sequence. The present study includes petrography, microfacies analyses, and studying reservoir characterizations for 5 boreholes within West Qurna oil field in the study area. According to the type of study succession (clastic – Carbonate) there are two types of facies analyses:-Carbonate facies analysis, which showed five major microfacies were recognized in the succession of the Shuaiba Formation, bioclastic mudstones to wackstone, Orbitolina wackestone to packstone, Miliolids wackestone, Peloidal wackestone to packstone and mudstone to wackestone identified as an open shelf toward the deep basin.
... Show MoreThe success of an organization is significantly influenced by strategic performance, a focal point in recent scholarly investigations and regulatory considerations. This study delves into the examination of the impact of strategy formulation, implementation, and evaluation on the strategic performance within the context of the oil industry in Iraq. Additionally, the research explores the moderating influence of leadership style on the relationship between strategy formulation, implementation, evaluation, and strategic performance in the Iraqi oil industry. Data collection involved the utilization of survey questionnaires distributed to selected employees of Iraqi oil companies. Statistical analysis, specifically SPSS-AMOS, was employed to s
... Show MoreThe current study examines the combined impacts of ultrasonic waves and nano silica (NS) on reducing the viscosity Sharqy Baghdad heavy crude oil with an API gravity of 20.32. NS of an average particle size of 59.93 nm and 563.23 m²/g surface area were produced utilizing the sol-gel technique from Iraqi sand. The XRD analysis indicates the existence of an amorphous silica, the SEM analysis showed that NS tends to agglomerate, and the FTIR spectra exhibited the presence of siloxane and silanol groups. In addition, the TGA analysis demonstrated a total weight loss of 15.62%, validating the thermal stability of the NS. The experiments included a study of the impact of ultrasonic power, exposure time, duty cycle, temperature, and the c
... Show MoreThis study is concerned with making comparison in using different geostatistical methods for porosity distribution of upper shale member - Zubair formation in Luhais oil field which was chosen to study.
Kriging, Gaussian random function simulation and sequential Gaussian simulation geostatistical methods were adopted in this study. After preparing all needed data which are contour map, well heads of 12 wells, well tops and porosity from CPI log. Petrel software 2009 was used for porosity distribution of mentioned formation in methods that are showed above. Comparisons were made among these three methods in order to choose the best one, the comparing cri
Foreign trade is very important in global economies because of its impact on the sustainability of economic growth by stimulating economic activity, creating jobs and expanding production . On the other side , this policy is a major obstacle to many developing countries and the reason is due to the nature of the economies of those countries because they rely mostly on one or a few economic resources, which makes them rely mostly on exports to that resource while they import most of the needs of their local market Which makes them in a spiral of underdevelopment , dependence and economic exposure, which requires them to break that cycle and the launch of economic development Perhaps one of the most important means to a
... Show Moreجريت دراسة مختبرية لمعرفة تأثير الزيت الطيار لقشور ثمار نبات النارنج الصفرC. aurantium تجاه النمو السطحي للفطريات Penicillium expansum، Aspergillus flavus و Fusarium oxysporum ، أظهرت نتائج الفعالية التثبيطية للزيت الطيار تأثيراً معنويا متفاوتاً في الفطريات المشمولة بالدراسة، إذ كان الزيت الطيار أكثر تأثيرأَ في الفطر P. expansum تلاه الفطر A. flavus ،في حين كان الفطر oxysporum F.أقل حساسية تجاه الزيت الطيار. بصورة عامة اظهر الزيت الطيار تأثيرا تثبيطيا
... Show MoreBackground: Herbal medicine can be called one of the branches of medicine in various forms. Turmericcurcumin has proved its efficiencies a coloring, flavoring agent and has been traditionally used in medicine, exhibiting remarkable anti-inflammatory and antioxidant properties. The varied biological properties of curcumin and lack of toxicity even when administered at higher doses makes it attractive to explore its use in various disorders like diseases of skin. It is good potential agent for wound healing. Materials and methods: Sixty four new Zealand rabbits were used in this study ,they were divided into four groups,each group was subdivided as follows:Experimental groups(8 rabbits) right facial side of animals for essential oil applicati
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