There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
The Turonian-Lower Companian succession at Majnoon Oil Field is represented by the Khasib, Tanuma, and Saadi formations. Four major paleoenvironments were recognized within the studied succession, there are: Shallow open marine environment, shoal environment, deep marine environment, and basinal environment. They reflect deposition on a carbonate platform of homoclinal ramp setting. The studied succession represents two second order supersequences (A) and (B). Supersequence (A) includes both the Khasib and Tanuma formations. The Saadi Formation represents cycle (B). These second order cycles can be divided each into two third order cycles, This subdivision may reflect the effect of eustacy being the major controlling factor of cycles dev
... Show MoreThe research mainly seeks to predict the amounts of non- oil Iraqi exports which concludes ) Food & Animals , Raw materials and non- tanned Leather and fur , Mineral fuels and Lubricating Oil , Chemical substances and amounts , Manufactured goods , Electrical and non - electrical machines , Supplies and Total non- Oil exports ) by using Markov Chain as one of Statistical approach to forecasting in future . In this search We estimate the transliteration probabilities matrix according to Maximum Likelihood on a data collected from central organization for Statistics and information technology represents an index numbers of non- Oil exports amount in Iraq from 2004 to 2015 depending on 2007 as a basic year . Results shown that trend of index
... Show MoreThe current investigation examines the combined impacts of ultrasonic radiation and hydrogen donors on the viscosity of heavy crude oil. The impact of exposure time, power, duty cycle, and temperature on the viscosity of Iraqi heavy crude oil with 20.32 API was studied. Also, the viscosity of the oil samples, which were mixed with a hydrogen donor (decalin) and subjected to ultrasonic treatment under optimal conditions, was examined to evaluate the combined impact of ultrasonic radiation and hydrogen donor on the viscosity of crude oil. The viscosity experienced a decrease of 52.34% at 2 min of irradiation, 360 W ultrasonic power, 0.8 duty cycle, 35 ⁰C, and 8vol% decalin. To validate the outcomes of the experiments, asphaltene content, s
... Show MoreEfficacy of Oregano Essential Oil Mouthwash in Reducing Oral Halitosis: A Randomized, Double-Blind Clinical Trial, Mohamed Saeed M Ali, Ayser Najah Mohammed*
Crude oil still affects many countries because it is one of the essential fuel sources. It makes life more manageable in modern communities and cannot be overstated because it is easy to use and find. However, the pollution caused by its use in industries such as mining, transportation, and the oil and gas business, especially soil pollution, cannot be ignored. Soil pollution is an issue in most communities because it influences people and ecology. Accidental infusions and spills of ore oils are prevalent occurrences leading to the entire or fractional exchange of the soil pore fluid by oil-contaminated soils that have affected the geotechnical engineering properties. The liquid limitations for polluted soil grades silty loam and sa
... Show MoreCrude oil still affects many countries because it is one of the essential fuel sources. It makes life more manageable in modern communities and cannot be overstated because it is easy to use and find. However, the pollution caused by its use in industries such as mining, transportation, and the oil and gas business, especially soil pollution, cannot be ignored. Soil pollution is an issue in most communities because it influences people and ecology. Accidental infusions and spills of ore oils are prevalent occurrences leading to the entire or fractional exchange of the soil pore fluid by oil-contaminated soils that have affected the geotechnical engineering properties. The liquid limitations for polluted soil grades silty loam and sa
... Show MoreIn this research, an experimental study was conducted to high light the impact of the exterior shape of a cylindrical body on the forced and free convection heat transfer coefficients when the body is hold in the entrance of an air duct. The impact of changing the body location within the air duct and the air speed are also demonstrated. The cylinders were manufactured with circular, triangular and square sections of copper for its high thermal conductivity with appropriate dimensions, while maintaining the surface area of all shapes to be the same. Each cylinder was heated to a certain temperature and put inside the duct at certain locations. The temperature of the cylinder was then monitored. The heat transfer coefficient were then cal
... Show MoreBackground: The timing of eruption of permanent teeth is of considerable importance to the dental health planning for diagnostic, preventive and therapeutic measures for children and teenagers. The purposes of this study were to determine timing of maxillary and mandibular permanent teeth emergence (except third molars) and to evaluate the effect nutritional status by anthropometric measures on the eruption time of permanent teeth, investigations had been done according to jaw and gender variations. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted among four to fifteen years old children and teenagers from kindergarten and schools in Basrah city in the south region of Iraq. The total sample composed of 1807 children and teenagers that were
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