There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
Net pay is one of the most important parameters used in determining initial oil in place of a reservoir. It can be delineated through the using of limiting values of the petrophysical properties of the reservoir. Those limiting values are named as the cutoff. This paper provides an insight into the application of regression line method in estimating porosity, clay volume and water saturation cutoff values in Mishrif reservoir/ Missan oil fields. The study included 29 wells distributed in seven oilfields of Halfaya, Buzurgan, Dujaila, Noor, Fauqi, Amara and Kumait.
This study is carried out by applying two types of linear regressions: Least square and Reduce Major Axis Regression.
The Mishrif formation was
... Show MoreExploration activities of the oil and gas industry generate loads of formation water called produced water (PW) up to thousands of tons each day. Depending on the geographic area, formation depth, oil production techniques, and age of oil supply wells, PW from different oil fields contain different chemical compositions. Currently, PW is also known as industrial waste water containing heavy metals that are toxic to humans and the environment, requiring special processing so that they can be disposed of in the environment. To determine the heavy metals content in PW from the Al-Ahdab oil field (AOF), the Ministry of Science and Technology/Agricultural Research Department determined som
This experiment was performed to investigate the influence of different oils in the diets of laying quail on their egg quality characteristics. One hundred and twenty 7-week-old Japanese quails (Coturnix coturnix japonica) were allocated to four groups with three replicates containing 10 quail each (30 quail per treatment group). They were fed for 13 weeks (including one week of adaptation period) on diets containing 3% oil from different sources, viz., sunflower (T1), linseed (T2), maize (T3), or fish oil (T4). Inclusion of the diet of laying quail with fish oil (T4) and maize oil (T2) resulted in a significant increase with respect to egg weight, yolk weight, albumen weight, yolk diameter, yolk height, albumen diameter, albumen height, sh
... Show MoreThe study aimed to assess Milk Thistle oi reducing the aflatoxin damage and improve the health status of local breed hens. The study was performed on 60 hens aged 35 weeks, weighing 2-2.5 kg of the body was obtained and housed on a private poultry farm in north of Baghdad (Altaji) for a period of 9 weeks from 22 October until 22 December 2020. Hens were divided to three treatments (20 hens). The first was fed a basal diet free of aflatoxin. The 2nd fed on a contaminated diet with aflatoxin (14.6 ppb) while the 3rd fed as in the 2nd with 0.5% of Milk Thistle oil /kg feed. A 5 hens from each group were slaughtered at the end of the trial for the histopathological inspection of liver, spleen and intestine tissues to evaluate the harmfu
... Show MoreThis study examines experimentally the performance of a horizontal triple concentric tube heat exchanger TCTHE made of copper metal using water as cooling fluid and oil-40 as hot fluid. Hot fluid enters the inner annular tube of the TCTHE in a direction at a temperature of 50, 60 and 70 oC and a flow rate of 20 l/hr. On the other hand, the cooling fluid enters the inner tube and the outer annular tube in the reverse direction (counter current flow) at a temperature of 25 oC and flow rates of 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35 l/hr. The TCTHE is composed of three copper tubes with outer diameters of 34.925 mm, 22.25 mm, and 9.525 mm, and thicknesses of 1.27 mm, 1.143 mm, and 0.762 mm, respectively. TCTHE tube's length was 670
... Show MoreThe diesel oil type S-3 specified for diesel engine has limited the suitability for diesel trucks for 8000 km, but didn't clarify its suitability if used in tractor engines.It is known that the work style of farm tractor differs from that of other vehicles where tractors are used for all the activities in sever conditions and under the complete usage of the available power and capability, so there is no sign or indication of the usage period of this oil in tractor's engine. The oil has been used on Cirta C6806 tractors. The manual book of the tractor's engine, Deutz recommends changing the oil every 100 hrs. Therefore the main goal of this research is to give the recommended working hours for S-3 diesel oil when used in farm tractor engines
... Show MoreThis experiment was performed to investigate the influence of different oils in the diets of laying quail on their egg quality characteristics. One hundred and twenty 7-wk old Japanese quails (Coturnix coturnix japonica) were allocated to four groups with three replicates containing 10 quail each (30 quail per each treatment group). They were fed for 13 weeks (including one week of adaptation period) on diets containing 3% oil from different sources, viz. either sunflower (T1), linseed (T2), maize (T3), or fish oil (T4). Inclusion the diet of laying quail with fish oil (T4) and maize oil (T2) resulted in significant increase with respect to egg weight, yolk weight, albumen weight, yolk diameter, yolk height, albumen diameter, albumen height
... Show MoreThe analysis of Iraqi light oil (light naphtha) by capillary gas chromatography- mass spectrometry (GC-MS) was performed by the injection of whole naphtha sample without use of solvents. Qualitative analysis and the identification of the hydrocarbon constituents of light naphtha was performed and comparison had been done with American light oil (light naphtha). The obtained results showed a major difference between the two-light naphtha.
Two oil wells were tested to find the abnormal pressure zones using sonic log technique. We found that well Abu-Jir-3 and Abu-Jir-5 had an abnormal pressure zones from depth 4340 to 4520 feet and 4200 to 4600 feet, respectively. The maximum difference between obtained results and the field measured results did not exceed 2.4%.
In this paper, the formation pressures were expressed in terms of pressure gradient which sometimes reached up to twice the normal pressure gradient.
Drilling and developing such formations were dangerous and expensive.
The plotted figures showed a clear derivation from the normal trend which confirmed the existence of abnormal pressure zones.