There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
Crude oil is one of the most important sources of energy in the world. To extract its multiple components, we need oil refineries. Refineries consist of multiple parts, including heat exchangers, furnaces, and others. It is known that one of the initial operations in the refineries is the process of gradually raising the temperature of crude oil to 370 degrees centigrade or higher. Hence, in this investigation the focus is on the furnaces and the corrosion in their tubes. The investigation was accomplished by reading the thickness of the tubes for the period from 2008 to 2020 with a test in every two year, had passed from their introduction into the work. Where the thickness of more than one point was measured on each tube in the sa
... Show MoreThe downhole flow profiles of the wells with single production tubes and mixed flow from more than one layer can be complicated, making it challenging to obtain the average pressure of each layer independently. Production log data can be used to monitor the impacts of pressure depletion over time and to determine average pressure with the use of Selective Inflow Performance (SIP). The SIP technique provides a method of determining the steady state of inflow relationship for each individual layer. The well flows at different stabilized surface rates, and for each rate, a production log is run throughout the producing interval to record both downhole flow rates and flowing pressure. PVT data can be used to convert measured in-situ rates
... Show MoreThe catalytic cracking of three feeds of extract lubricating oil, that produced as a by-product from the process of furfural extraction of lubricating oil base stock in AL-Dura refinery at different operating condition, were carried out at a fixed bed laboratory reactor. The initial boiling point for these feeds was 140 ºC for sample (1), 86 ºC for sample (2) and 80 ºC for sample (3). The catalytic cracking processes were carried out at temperature range 325-400 ºC and initially at atmospheric pressure after 30 minutes over 9.88 % HY-zeolite catalyst load. The comparison between the conversion at different operating conditions of catalytic cracking processes indicates that a high yield was obtained at 375°C, according to gasoline pr
... Show MoreThe depletion of petroleum reserves and increasing environmental concerns have driven the development of eco-friendly asphalt binders. This research investigates the performance of natural asphalt (NA) modified with waste engine oil (WEO) as a sustainable alternative to conventional petroleum asphalt (PA). The study examines NA modified with 10%, 20%, and 30% WEO by the weight of asphalt to identify an optimal blend ratio that enhances the binder’s flexibility and workability while maintaining high-temperature stability. Comprehensive testing was conducted, including penetration, softening point, viscosity, ductility, multiple stress creep recovery (MSCR), linear amplitude sweep (LAS), energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX), F
... Show MoreIn this study, sulfur was removed from imitation oil using oxidative desulfurization process. Silicoaluminophosphate (SAPO-11) was prepared using the hydrothermal method with a concentration of carbon nanotubes (CNT) of 0% and 7.5% at 190 °C crystallization temperature. The final molar composition of the as-prepared SAPO-11 was Al2O3: 0.93P2O5: 0.414SiO2. 4% MO/SAPO-11 was prepared using impregnation methods. The produced SAPO-11 was described using X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Brunauer-Emmet-Teller (N2 adsorption–desorption isotherms). It was found that the addition of CNT increased the crystallinity of SAPO-11. The results showed that the surface area of SAPO-11 containing 7.5% CNT was 179.54 m2/g, and the pore volume was 0.31
... Show MoreThe Albian Carbonate-clastic succession in the present study is represented by the Mauddud and Nahr Umr formations were deposited during the Albian stage within the Wasia Group More than 200 thin sections of cores and cuttings in addition to well logs data for Nahr Umr and Mauddud formations from 4 boreholes within two oil fields (Ba-4, Ba-8, Ns-2 and Ns-4) were used to interpret the different associations facies as well as the facies architectures to describe the sedimentary framework of the basin and development the petrophysical properties. Seven major microfacies were diagnosed in the carbonate succession of the Mauddud Formation, while the Nar Umr Formation includes five lithofacies; their grain types characteristic and deposit
... Show MoreThis study is achieved in the local area in Eridu oil field, where the Mishrif Formation is considered the main productive reservoir. The Mishrif Formation was deposited during the Cretaceous period in the secondary sedimentary cycle (Cenomanian-Early Turonian as a part of the Wasia Group a carbonate succession and widespread throughout the Arabian Plate. There are four association facies are identified in Mishrif Formation according the microfacies analysis: FA1-Deep shelf facies association (Outer Ramp); FA2-Slope (Middle Ramp); FA3-Reef facies (Shoal) association (Inner ramp); FA4-Back Reef facies association. Sequence stratigraphic analysis show there are three stratigraphic surfaces based on the abrupt changing in depositional
... Show MoreAir pollution evaluation of the operational processes in the East Baghdad oil field was carried out. The analysis was carried out by ICP-MS technique. Total Suspended Particles (TSP) air load was higher than Iraqi Standards and world international allowable limits of World Health Organization. The mean concentrations of gases carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, in the air were within national and world standards, while the mean concentration of nitrogen dioxide was higher than standard limits. The air of the study area is considered a good quality for CO, CO2 and NO2 with no health effect, while it is hazardous for TSP that have serious risk for people with respiratory disease. The mean concentrations of Cd, Cr, Cu and
... Show MoreThe antimicrobial activity of ginger extracts ( cold-water, hot-water, ethanolic and essential oil ) against some of pathogenic bacteria ( Escherichia coli , Salmonella sp , Klebsiella sp , Serratia marcescens, Vibrio cholerae , Staphylococcus aureus , Streptococcus sp) was investigated using Disc diffusion method , and the results were compared with the antimicrobial activity of 12 antibiotics on the same bacteria . The results showed that the ginger extracts were more effective on gram-positive bacteria than gram-negative . V. cholerae and S. marcescens,were the most resistant bacteria to the extracts used , while highest inhibition was noticed against Streptococcus sp (28 mm) . The ethanolic extract showed the broadest antibacterial ac
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