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Using Bayesian method to estimate the parameters of Exponential Growth Model with Autocorrelation problem and different values of parameter of correlation-using simulation
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We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. For verifying the goal has been used the simulation technique where has been generated random samples with known parameters and different values of correlation. It has been shown from the computational results that all result has been affected by the values of correlation coefficients used to generate the data, and there is a clear proof and regularity of the sensitivity for Bayesian estimators by Autocorrelation with increase the size of sample.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Financial Variables and Their Effects on The Development of Bank Credit and Productive Sectors in Iraq Using a Path Analysis Model
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This study aims to measure and analyze the direct and indirect effects of the financial variables, namely (public spending, public revenues, internal debt, and external debt), on the non-oil productive sectors with and without bank credit as an intermediate variable, using quarterly data for the period (2004Q1–2021Q4), converted using Eviews 12. To measure the objective of the study, the path analysis method was used using IBM SPSS-AMOS. The study concluded that the direct and indirect effects of financial variables have a weak role in directing bank credit towards the productive sectors in Iraq, which amounted to (0.18), as a result of market risks or unstable expectations in the economy. In addition to the weak credit ratings of borr

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

  

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 13 2022
Journal Name
International Information And Engineering Technology Association
Countermeasure of Riverbanks Local Scour and Deposition Using Different Shapes of Multiple Groynes with Different Spacing
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In current study a computation fluid dynamic (CFD) technique was used to investigate the effect of groynes shape and spacing on the scour pattern and the maximum scour depth in open channel flow. CFD model have been validated throughout comparing the numerical results with three previous experimental studies for a single groyne located in open channel with three different shapes (L, quadrant, and parabola shapes). The comparison revealed very good agreement between numerical results of the maximum scour depth with the results of all experimental models. Moreover, investigations of the effect of multi-groynes (three groynes and four groynes) arranged in parallel with constant spacing and also with variable spacing have been done, the

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Determinants of economic growth in Arab Countries: An Empirical Study compared with South-east Asia
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The study addresses the problem of stagnation and declining economic growth rates in Arab countries since the eighties till today after the progress made by these countries in the sixties of the last century. The study reviews the e

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 11 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Comparison of Bayes' Estimators for the Exponential Reliability Function Under Different Prior Functions
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 In this study, we derived the estimation for Reliability of the Exponential distribution based on the Bayesian approach. In the Bayesian approach, the parameter of the Exponential distribution is assumed to be random variable .We  derived  posterior distribution the parameter of the Exponential distribution under four types priors distributions for the scale parameter of the Exponential distribution is: Inverse Chi-square distribution, Inverted Gamma distribution, improper distribution, Non-informative distribution. And the estimators for Reliability is obtained using the two proposed loss function in this study which is based on the natural logarithm for Reliability function .We used simulation technique, to compare the

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The economic feasibility of substituting different residues replaces part of the barley In the fattening of the Arabian lambs
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This experiment was carried out at the Grdarash field belongs to the Agricultural researches directorate/general Agriculture directorate-Erbil in September (2007)، 27 Arabic lambs aged (5-6 months) With average initial weight (39.178 Kg/lamb) were used. Lambs were divided in to (3) groups (9 lambs/group). Control group was fed on (85% barely، 10% bran and 5% straw)، and second and third groups were fed on various by-product in replacement with barely in loss and block shape respectively.

The total gain of three groups were (392708.32، 634826.52 & 445613.72 ID resp

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Distinguishing Shapes of Breast Cancer Masses in Ultrasound Images by Using Logistic Regression Model
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The last few years witnessed great and increasing use in the field of medical image analysis. These tools helped the Radiologists and Doctors to consult while making a particular diagnosis. In this study, we used the relationship between statistical measurements, computer vision, and medical images, along with a logistic regression model to extract breast cancer imaging features. These features were used to tell the difference between the shape of a mass (Fibroid vs. Fatty) by looking at the regions of interest (ROI) of the mass. The final fit of the logistic regression model showed that the most important variables that clearly affect breast cancer shape images are Skewness, Kurtosis, Center of mass, and Angle, with an AUCROC of

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimation of the parameter of the Pareto distribution manual Using the general mediator estimator
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Estimation of the tail index parameter of a one - parameter Pareto model has wide important by the researchers because it has awide application in the econometrics science and reliability theorem.

Here we introduce anew estimator of "generalized median" type and compare it with the methods of Moments and Maximum likelihood by using the criteria, mean square error.

 The estimator of generalized median type performing best over all.

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Efficiency Measurement Model for Postgraduate Programs and Undergraduate Programs by Using Data Envelopment Analysis
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Measuring the efficiency of postgraduate and undergraduate programs is one of the essential elements in educational process. In this study, colleges of Baghdad University and data for the academic year (2011-2012) have been chosen to measure the relative efficiencies of postgraduate and undergraduate programs in terms of their inputs and outputs. A relevant method to conduct the analysis of this data is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The effect of academic staff to the number of enrolled and alumni students to the postgraduate and undergraduate programs are the main focus of the study.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 28 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Diversity Operators-based Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm to Solve Flexible Job Shop Scheduling Problem
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Artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA) is one of the critical swarm intelligent algorithms. In this
paper, the authors decide to enhance AFSA via diversity operators (AFSA-DO). The diversity operators will
be producing more diverse solutions for AFSA to obtain reasonable resolutions. AFSA-DO has been used to
solve flexible job shop scheduling problems (FJSSP). However, the FJSSP is a significant problem in the
domain of optimization and operation research. Several research papers dealt with methods of solving this
issue, including forms of intelligence of the swarms. In this paper, a set of FJSSP target samples are tested
employing the improved algorithm to confirm its effectiveness and evaluate its ex

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