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Using Bayesian method to estimate the parameters of Exponential Growth Model with Autocorrelation problem and different values of parameter of correlation-using simulation
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We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. For verifying the goal has been used the simulation technique where has been generated random samples with known parameters and different values of correlation. It has been shown from the computational results that all result has been affected by the values of correlation coefficients used to generate the data, and there is a clear proof and regularity of the sensitivity for Bayesian estimators by Autocorrelation with increase the size of sample.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Future of Mathematical Modelling: A Review of COVID-19 Infected Cases Using S-I-R Model
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The spread of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in chaos around the globe. The infected cases are still increasing, with many countries still showing a trend of growing daily cases. To forecast the trend of active cases, a mathematical model, namely the SIR model was used, to visualize the spread of COVID-19. For this article, the forecast of the spread of the virus in Malaysia has been made, assuming that all Malaysian will eventually be susceptible. With no vaccine and antiviral drug currently developed, the visualization of how the peak of infection (namely flattening the curve) can be reduced to minimize the effect of COVID-19 disease. For Malaysians, let’s ensure to follow the rules and obey the SOP to lower the

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
مجلة كلية الكوت الجامعة للعلوم الإنسانية
Student - Teacher Environmental Sustainability Values College of Education for Pure Sciences
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Research objective to identify the degree of environmental sustainability values of the student-teacher in the College of Education for Pure Sciences. In this research the methodology of relational descriptive research was adopted, and the research sample consisted of (116) students from the College of Education for Pure Sciences / Ibn Al-Haytham / University of Baghdad From the Department of Chemistry (fourth stage), that is, 54% of the research community were randomly selected. The research tool was prepared, represented by a measure of environmental sustainability values of (20) items, the results of the research showed: The poor degree of environmental sustainability values. The Statistical Portfolio of Social Sciences (SPSS) was adopte

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 24 2024
Journal Name
Applied Water Science
Tectonic activation and the risk of Ilisu Dam collapse to Iraq through modelling and simulation using HEC-RAS
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Abstract<p>Floods caused by dam failures can cause huge losses of life and property, especially in estuarine areas and valleys. In spite of all the capabilities and great improvements reached by man in the construction of dams and their structures, they will remain helpless before the powerful forces of nature, especially those related to tectonic activation, and the occurrence of earthquakes of different intensities.</p><p>The region extending from the Ilisu Dam in Turkey to the Mosul Dam in Iraq was chosen as an area for this study, and the HEC-RAS application was used to simulate the collapse of the Ilisu Dam due to a major earthquake, to know the magnitude of the risks and losses that could result</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
EFFECT OF ADDING QUERCETIN TO TRIS EXTENDER IN SOME SEMEN CHARACTERISTICS OF AWASSI RAMS AFTER DIFFERENT PERIODS OF CRYOPRESERVATION: EFFECT OF ADDING QUERCETIN TO TRIS EXTENDER IN SOME SEMEN CHARACTERISTICS OF AWASSI RAMS AFTER DIFFERENT PERIODS OF CRYOPRESERVATION
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ABSTRACT

The study evaluated the effect of adding quercetin to some characteristics of the sperm of the ram. This study was conducted in the animal field, Department of Animal Production, College of Agricultural Engineering Science, University of Baghdad for the period 5/12/2021 to 20/2/2022. In this experiment, 3 rams were used at the age of 2-2.5 years and weighed 50-55 kg. The semen was collected early in the morning and once a week and the semen was pooled to remove the individual differences. The treatments were divided: quercetin-free control group, treatment T1 (3 µL/mL quercetin), T2 treatment (6 µL/mL quercetin), T3 treatment (9 µL/mL quercetin). The result of the study showed

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 15 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Effect of feeding pattern on the stage of primary dentition eruption in relation to growth parameters
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Background: Feeding is a complicated process that involves the coordination of cardiovascular, respiratory, gastrointestinal (GI), and oropharyngeal mechanisms, with support from the musculoskeletal and craniofacial systems. The practice of feeding could be correlated with eruption stage and nutritional status in infants. Aim of the study: This study aimed to assess the relation of feeding patterns to a selected oral variable (stage of the eruption of primary teeth) and growth parameters among clinically healthy infants. Subjects and Methods: A cross-sectional comparative study on a sample of (300) infants aged between 6 and 18 months was performed in Karbala City, Iraq. The feeding pattern was investigated using an information sheet ans

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Suggested method for modifying the site parameter
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     Estimating multivariate location and scatter with both affine equivariance and positive break down has always been difficult. Awell-known estimator which satisfies both properties is the Minimum volume Ellipsoid Estimator (MVE) Computing the exact (MVE) is often not feasible, so one usually resorts to an approximate Algorithm. In the regression setup, algorithm for positive-break down estimators like Least Median of squares typically recomputed the intercept at each step, to improve the result. This approach is called intercept adjustment. In this paper we show that a similar technique, called location adjustment, Can be applied to the (MVE). For this purpose we use the Minimum Volume Ball (MVB). In order

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measurement of Impact of Banking System Development on Economic Growth in Iraq
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At the heart of every robust economy is a vital banking system. The functional banking system can effectively perform several functions such as mobilizing savings, allocating credit, monitoring managers, transforming risks, and facilitating the financial transactions. This paper aims to measure the impact of banking system development on economic growth in Iraq. Credit to private sector divided by GDP used as a proxy of banking development. Real per capita GDP used as a proxy of economic growth. By using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the paper finds that the undeveloped Iraqi banking system could not promote economic growth in the country. Therefore, a variety of policies need to be taken to spur the role of bankin

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 15 2023
Journal Name
History Of Medicine
Assessment of Alpha-Fetoprotein in Cerebrospinal Fluid, Plasma and Its Correlation to Some Biochemical Parameters in New Born with Congenital Hydrocephalus
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ATAW Eqbal Abdul Ameer'. Shifaa Jameel Ibrahim?, HISTORY Of MEDICINE, 2023

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 11 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Comparison of Bayes' Estimators for the Exponential Reliability Function Under Different Prior Functions
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 In this study, we derived the estimation for Reliability of the Exponential distribution based on the Bayesian approach. In the Bayesian approach, the parameter of the Exponential distribution is assumed to be random variable .We  derived  posterior distribution the parameter of the Exponential distribution under four types priors distributions for the scale parameter of the Exponential distribution is: Inverse Chi-square distribution, Inverted Gamma distribution, improper distribution, Non-informative distribution. And the estimators for Reliability is obtained using the two proposed loss function in this study which is based on the natural logarithm for Reliability function .We used simulation technique, to compare the

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 30 2019
Journal Name
Environmental Engineering Research
Numerical modeling of two-dimensional simulation of groundwater protection from lead using different sorbents in permeable barriers
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This study is to investigate the possibility of using activated carbon prepared from Iraqi date-pits (ADP) which are produced from palm trees (Phoenix dactylifera L.) as low-cost reactive material in the permeable reactive barrier (PRB) for treating lead (Pb<sup>+2</sup>) from the contaminated groundwater, and then compare the results experimentally with other common reactive materials such as commercial activated carbon (CAC), zeolite pellets (ZP). Factors influencing sorption such as contact time, initial pH of the solution, sorbent dosage, agitation speed, and initial lead concentration has been studied. Two isotherm models were used for the description of sorption data (Langmuir and Freundlich). The maximum lead sorp

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