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Using Bayesian method to estimate the parameters of Exponential Growth Model with Autocorrelation problem and different values of parameter of correlation-using simulation
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We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. For verifying the goal has been used the simulation technique where has been generated random samples with known parameters and different values of correlation. It has been shown from the computational results that all result has been affected by the values of correlation coefficients used to generate the data, and there is a clear proof and regularity of the sensitivity for Bayesian estimators by Autocorrelation with increase the size of sample.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
"Testing Caldor's Hypothesis to Estimate the Relationship between the Industrial Production and Growth in Gross Domestic Product in Iraq"
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The study aimed to test the hypothesis of Caldor to estimate the relationship between industrial production and GDP growth in Iraq using with Integration Framework  and to determine the causal relationship in the short and long term using the error correction vector model for the period 1990-2016. the results showed a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and industrial output, while Ganger causality tests showed a causal relationship in the long run of GDP to output Subliminal thus illustrated the extent of the recession suffered by the industrial sector, which is supposed to be the driving force of the economy and the development and expansion of the productive base of the industry, so this study recommends attent

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Finding the best estimation of generalized for failure rates by using Simulation
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The statistical distributions study aimed to obtain on best descriptions  of variable sets phenomena, which each of them got one behavior of that distributions .  The estimation operations study for that distributions considered of important things which could n't canceled in variable behavior study, as result  this research came as trial for reaching to best method for information distribution estimation which is generalized linear failure rate distribution, throughout studying the theoretical sides by depending on statistical posteriori methods  like greatest ability, minimum squares method and Mixing method (suggested method).        

The research

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 02 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Transport Assessment Using Bayesian Method to Determine Ride-Hailing in Kula Lumpur: A Case Study
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This research was designed to investigate the factors affecting the frequency of use of ride-hailing in a fast-growing metropolitan region in Southeast Asia, Kuala Lumpur. An intercept survey was used to conduct this study in three potential locations that were acknowledged by one of the most famous ride-hailing companies in Kuala Lumpur. This study used non-parametric and machine learning techniques to analyze the data, including the Pearson chi-square test and Bayesian Network. From 38 statements (input variables), the Pearson chi-square test identified 14 variables as the most important. These variables were used as predictors in developing a BN model that predicts the probability of weekly usage frequency of ride-hai

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 02 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications
Using the wavelet analysis to estimate the nonparametric regression model in the presence of associated errors
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Abstract The wavelet shrink estimator is an attractive technique when estimating the nonparametric regression functions, but it is very sensitive in the case of a correlation in errors. In this research, a polynomial model of low degree was used for the purpose of addressing the boundary problem in the wavelet reduction in addition to using flexible threshold values in the case of Correlation in errors as it deals with those transactions at each level separately, unlike the comprehensive threshold values that deal with all levels simultaneously, as (Visushrink) methods, (False Discovery Rate) method, (Improvement Thresholding) and (Sureshrink method), as the study was conducted on real monthly data represented in the rates of theft crimes f

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
مقارنة بين الطريقة التقليدية Classical Method وطريقة تحليل الطيف Spectral Analysis لإيجاد ثابت التمهيد التكيفي عند وجود قيم شاذة Outlier Values
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   In this paper , two method which deal with finding the optimal value for adaptive smoothing constant, are compared .This constant is used in adaptive Single Exponential Smoothing (ASES).

The comparing is between a method uses time domain and another uses frequency domain when the data contain outlier value for autoregressive model of order one AR(1) , or Markov Model, when the time series are stationary and non stationary with deferent samples .    

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimate the Partial Linear Model Using Wavelet and Kernel Smoothers
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This article aims to estimate the partially linear model by using two methods, which are the Wavelet and Kernel Smoothers. Simulation experiments are used to study the small sample behavior depending on different functions, sample sizes, and variances. Results explained that the wavelet smoother is the best depending on the mean average squares error criterion for all cases that used.

 

 

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Some Methods for Estimating Parameters of General Linear Model in Presence of Heteroscedastic Problem and High Leverage Points
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Linear regression is one of the most important statistical tools through which it is possible to know the relationship between the response variable and one variable (or more) of the independent variable(s), which is often used in various fields of science. Heteroscedastic is one of the linear regression problems, the effect of which leads to inaccurate conclusions. The problem of heteroscedastic may be accompanied by the presence of extreme outliers in the independent variables (High leverage points) (HLPs), the presence of (HLPs) in the data set result unrealistic estimates and misleading inferences. In this paper, we review some of the robust

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison between method penalized quasi- likelihood and Marginal quasi-likelihood in estimating parameters of the multilevel binary model
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Multilevel models are among the most important models widely used in the application and analysis of data that are characterized by the fact that observations take a hierarchical form, In our research we examined the multilevel logistic regression model (intercept random and slope random model) , here the importance of the research highlights that the usual regression models calculate the total variance of the model and its inability to read variance and variations between levels ,however in the case of multi-level regression models, the calculation of  the total variance is inaccurate and therefore these models calculate the variations for each level of the model, Where the research aims to estimate the parameters of this m

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 16 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Self-control of kindergarten teachers and its relationship to some variables
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The aim of the current research is to identify the self-control of kindergarten teachers as well as to identify the significance of the differences according to a variable (years of service, academic achievement, specialization). Its final paragraphs consist of (35) paragraphs, and its psychometric properties were verified and the tool was applied to a sample of (400) teachers chosen randomly from kindergarten teachers affiliated to the General Directorates of Education in Baghdad, Rusafa, and Karkh for the academic year 2019-2020

In light of the objectives of the current research, the following results were reached

  1. The current research sample is from kindergarten teachers with self-contro
  2. There are diffe

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