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jeasiq-720
Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 31 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Salivary level of RANKL and OPG in chronic periodontitis
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Background: Periodontal diseases are initiated by microbial plaque, which accumulates in the sulcular region and induces an inflammatory response. The Receptor activator of nuclear factor-kappa B ligand / osteoprotegerin (RANKL/OPG) axis is involved in the regulation of bone metabolism in periodontitis, in which an increase in receptor activator of nuclear factor-kappa B ligand or a decrease in osteoprotegerin can tip the balance in favor of osteoclastogenesis and the resorption of alveolar bone that is the hallmark of periodontitis. This study was performed to investigate the role of salivary levels of RANKL and OPG in pathogenesis of chronic periodontitis. Subjects and Methods: Fifty five subjects with chronic periodontitis with ages rang

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 21 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Dental Journal
Amoxicillin vs Levofloxacin in Treatment of Chronic Periodontitis: Review
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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
The Effect of Chronic Renal Failure on Thyroid Hormones
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       Chronic renal failure (CRF) affects thyroid function in multiple ways, including low circulating thyroid hormone concentration, altered peripheral hormone metabolism, disturbed binding to carrier proteins, possible reduction in tissue thyroid hormone content, and increased iodine store in thyroid glands.The target of study is to find a relationship between chronic renal failure and thyroid function.In addition, we tried to study the effect of CRF on serum creatinine dependent on the level of thyroid hormones (T3 and T4) and thyroid stimulating hormones(TSH). Forty patients with chronic renal failure (20 male, 20 female) were enrolled in this study in addition to forty healthy individual as control gro

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Influence of the basic elements of knowledge management in strategic performance/filed research sample of private banks in Baghdad
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objective  the research to diagnosis and interpretation of the nature of the effect between the  basic elements of knowledge management (tecgnology , structure , culture , process , human resource ) and the strategic performance of the Iraqi private banks, the research community and the level dimensions, and I've tested this research in the private banking sector represented by (7), especially in Baghdad, Iraqi banks, and applied research on sample consisting of 100 distributors in several administrative levels Director (Director, Director of the department, branch manager), and use the researcher questionnaire Head to collect data and information tool, and some private banks annual reports, has sought research to test

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 14 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Personality Types in Relation to the Periodontal Health Status and Salivary Dehydroepiandrosterone among Teachers in Baghdad City
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Background: The individual differences in emotional and behavioral style can be examined through personality instruments. These differences may explain the health status of the individuals. The purpose of the present study was to assess the influence of Personality Types on gingival and periodontal health status among teachers in Baghdad city in relation to selected salivary hormone (Dehydroepiandrosterone). Materials and methods: Females teachers 534 of randomly selected schools were subjected to personality questionnaire using The Riso-Hudson Enneagram Type Indicator. Teachers were examined to estimate the periodontal status according to the Community Periodontal Index (CPI). A group of teachers were selected for salivary analysis of Dehy

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 15 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Oral health status in relation to nutritional status among institutionalized and non-institutionalized orphans in Baghdad city
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Background: Nutritional condition was reported as one of the factors affecting the oral health status, particularly among underprivileged groups. Orphans are one of the known high-risk groups. The aims of this study were to assess the nutritional status of orphans, and its impact on the oral health status. Materials and Methods: Five-hundred children aged 6-12 years old, 254 males and 246 females: institutionalized, non-institutionalized orphans and controls were participated in this study. Nutritional status assessed according to body mass index (BMI). Ramfjord index teeth were examined to assess oral cleanliness and gingival condition. All data were analyzed using SPSS version 23. Results this study revealed the institutionalized orphans

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 09 2023
Journal Name
Bmj
COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake And Its’ Associated Factors among general population In Basmaia City in Baghdad 2022
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Abstract<sec><title>Objective

Vaccination is a vital cornerstone of public health, which has saved countless lives throughout history. Therefore, achieving high vaccination uptake rates is essential for successful vaccination programs. Unfortunately, vaccine uptake has been hindered by deferent factors and challenges. The objective of this study is to assess COVID-19 vaccine uptake and associated factors among the general population.

Methods

This study is a descriptive cross-sectional study conducted in Basmaia city, Baghdad from June to October 2022. Data were collected through a semi-structured questionnaire using multi-stag

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 31 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
A Salivary α-Amylase Level in Relation to the Oral Health Parameters among Children in Baghdad City
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Background: Saliva is a specific bio-fluid with important biomarkers. Analyzing any alternation in these markers could give valuable information, in relation to oral health status parameters. The aim of this study was to investigate the level of α -amylase in unstimulated whole saliva of healthy, primary school children in relation to some oral health parameters. Materials and Methods: A questionnaires consisted of demography and medical histories of participants were filled by children families. Saliva samples were collected for 5- minutes between 9:00 -11:00 AM from 114 healthy students aged 6-13 years, divided into four age groups. Flow- rate, Plaque and Gingival Index were assessed and dentition status was investigated by DMFT/dmft

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 31 2026
Journal Name
Al Ghary Journal Of Economic And Administrative Sciences
The impact of strategic knowledge on strategic improvisation: an exploratory study of some private hospitals in the city of Baghdad
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Evaluation and Improvement of Manufacturing System Using Computer Software Arena
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The main purpose of the paper is to identify the controllability of an existing production system; yogurt production line in Abu Ghraib Dairy Factory which has several machines of food processing and packing that has been studied. Through the starting of analysis, instability in production has been found in the factory. The analysis is built depending on experimental observation and data collection for different processing time of the machines, and statistical analysis has been conducted to model the production system. Arena Software is applied for simulating and analyzing the current state of the production system, and results are expanded to improve the system production and efficiency. Research method is applied to contribute in knowi

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