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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Evaluation of the Influence of De-sanding (Recycling System) Process on the Pile Bearing Capacity Using Full Scale Models
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The present study investigates the effect of the de-sanding (recycling system) on the bearing capacity of the bored piles. Full-scale models were conducted on two groups of piles, the first group was implemented without using this system, and the second group was implemented using the recycling system. All piles were tested by static load test, considering the time factor for which the piles were implemented. The test results indicated a significant and clear difference in the bearing capacity of the piles when using this system. The use of the recycling system led to a significant increase in the bearing capacity of the piles by 50% or more. Thus it was possible to reduce the pile length by (15 % or more) thus, and implementation costs

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Evaluation of the Influence of De-sanding (Recycling System) Process on the Pile Bearing Capacity Using Full Scale Models
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The present study investigates the effect of the de-sanding (recycling system) on the bearing capacity of the bored piles. Full-scale models were conducted on two groups of piles, the first group was implemented without using this system, and the second group was implemented using the recycling system. All piles were tested by static load test, considering the time factor for which the piles were implemented. The test results indicated a significant and clear difference in the bearing capacity of the piles when using this system. The use of the recycling system led to a significant increase in the bearing capacity of the piles by 50% or more. Thus it was possible to reduce the pile length by (15 % or more) thus, and implementation c

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 13 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE EMPLOYMENT OF WOMAN IN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT DECLARATIONS: (An Analytical Study of Road Advertising in Baghdad)
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Woman is the first target of social advertising, because most of these advertisements are primarily belong to them. This paper which is entitled "Social Responsibility for the Employment of Woman in Sustainable Development Declarations, An Analytical Study of Road Advertising in Baghdad" focuses on the use of woman in advertising. This aspect shows that some people see that advertisement is a mirror to what’s found in society such as woman’s behaviors in her everyday life and so on, while other people see that as long as the public wants those advertisings, they are free to choose what they prefer. They think that the shameful advertisements are natural and unavoidable. These vie

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 28 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Social Dimension of the Phenomenon of Suicide in Iraq: Reasons and Proposals "Field Study in Baghdad Police Stations
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There have been many negative phenomena in Iraqi society, especially after the political crises over the last years, such as the spread of violence, the deterioration of the economic situation, the spread of unemployment and poverty, and the disintegration of social ties, divorce, and the entry of the scourge of drugs. Among the most dangerous of these emergent phenomena, the phenomenon of suicide among young people of both sex, which has grown and increased in an unprecedented manner, surpassing all known social norms in Iraqi society and the prevailing religious values. Suicide in Iraqi society has transformed from a simple case to a visible presence in all Iraqi provinces. Suicides cases have registered in all cities of Iraq and of bo

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 11 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
STUDY THE MICROBIAL CONTAMINATION OF BROKEN AND CRACKED COMMERCIAL TABLE EGG IN BAGHDAD MARKETS AND ITS ECONOMIC EFFECT: STUDY THE MICROBIAL CONTAMINATION OF BROKEN AND CRACKED COMMERCIAL TABLE EGG IN BAGHDAD MARKETS AND ITS ECONOMIC EFFECT
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The aim of this novel native study was to determine the microbial contamination of broken and cracked imported commercial table egg in Baghdad markets and its economic effect. A total of 21510 commercial chicken table eggs were checked and surveyed from retail markets in different popular regions of Baghdad city during a year period from January 3rd to December 28th of 2018 and its microbial contamination were studied. Results revealed that significant differences (P<0.01) were appeared in the studied microbial counts during months of the study and significant differences (P<0.01) in the average counts between broken and cracked eggs and sound (not bro

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Calendar art activities in private schools Secondary School in Baghdad: سناء عبد الامير حسين
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The technical activities designed to highlight the creations of students by providing activities appropriate to their abilities and capabilities within and outside the school, which is a way for the development of learning and learner behavior aimed at directing guidance educationally and artistically.As a result of the efforts of modern educational activities, art has become part of the philosophy of the modern school and part of the modern curriculum. Because it is enough to configure the practices and habits of a satisfactory and acceptable, and is characterized by precision, order and beauty.Through the researcher with a survey of previous studies that dealt with art activities and found that all studies have been confined to a calen

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 19 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Effective of incentive system on development of Research creativity for professors of university: Analytical study at private collage in Baghdad
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This research aims at studying and analyzing the creative research thinking of the educational staffs in private universities and colleges, and also the role of incentives, in its materialistic and moral sides in the development of such thinking and the pack of restraints which cause decline in interest level of the scientificresearch, and its weak role in the development of universities in Iraq, despite the interest of the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research in Iraq in scientific research as part ofits academic and humanitarian targets.Based on study and analysis, and the using if some of statistical methods such as the Alpha Chronobaghcoefficient and the (T. Test)(F. Test),the research reached a number of conclusions.

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Frequency of Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibodies (ANCA) in Some Autoimmune Diseases
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Anti-Neutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibodies (ANCA) are a heterogeneous group of autoantibodies with a broad spectrum of clinically associated diseases. The diagnostic value is established for Proteinase 3 (PR3)-ANCA as well as Myeloperoxidase (MPO)-ANCA. To estimate the frequency of anti-neutrophile cytoplasmic antibodies (ANCA) in sera from a group of Iraqi patients with some autoimmune diseases compared with a healthy control group. Serum samples were collected from one hundred patient, 47 males and 53 females; with age range of 16-70 years; 20 specimens from patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), 30 from patients with ulcerative colitis (UC), and 50 from patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A group of 40 apparently healthy b

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
الضغوط النفسية والعوامل الاجتماعية المؤدية إلى الإصابة بأمراض القولون ( بحث ميداني في مدينة بغداد )
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بالنظر الظروف الراهنة التي يمر بها قطرنا ونتيجة للارتفاع معدل الاصابة بالامراض ذات الطابع النفسي جسمي او ما تعرف بامراض سوء التكيف الناتج عن الضغوط النفسية المستمرة.

ارتأت الحاجة الى دراسة هذا النوع من المرض والتي ترجعها الباحثة الى الاسباب التالية :.

1-تعرض المواطن العراقي الى ضغوط نفسية مستمرة متمثلة بحالة الانفلات الامني والشعور بالقلق المستمر المراف

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Global Pharma Technology
Serum levels of cross-linked n-telopeptide of Type i collagen before and after non-surgical periodontal therapy in type 2 diabetic patients with chronic periodontitis
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Background: Diabetes mellitus is a major risk factor for chronic periodontitis (CP) and hyperglycemia has an important role in the enhancement of the severity of the periodontitis. It has been reported that the progression of CP causes shifting of the balance between bone formation and resorption toward osteoclastic resorption, and this will lead to the release of collagenous bone breakdown products into the local tissues and the systemic circulation. Cross-linked N-telopeptide of type I collagen (NTx) is the amino-terminal peptides of type I collagen which is released during the process of bone resorption. This study was conducted to determine the effects of nonsurgical periodontal therapy on serum level of NTx in type 2 diabetic patients

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