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jeasiq-720
Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 21 2024
Journal Name
Edelweiss Applied Science And Technology
Using count regression models to investigate the most important economic factors affecting divorce in Iraq
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The two most popular models inwell-known count regression models are Poisson and negative binomial regression models. Poisson regression is a generalized linear model form of regression analysis used to model count data and contingency tables. Poisson regression assumes the response variable Y has a Poisson distribution, and assumes the logarithm of its expected value can be modeled by a linear combination of unknown parameters. Negative binomial regression is similar to regular multiple regression except that the dependent (Y) variables an observed count that follows the negative binomial distribution. This research studies some factors affecting divorce using Poisson and negative binomial regression models. The factors are unemplo

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Engineering
Esterification Reaction Kinetics Using Ion Exchange Resin Catalyst by Pseudo-Homogenous and Eley-Ridel Models
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This work deals with kinetics and chemical equilibrium studies of esterification reaction of ethanol with acetic acid. The esterification reaction was catalyzed by an acidic ion exchange resin (Amberlyst- 15) using a batch stirred tank reactor. The pseudo-homogenous and Eley-Rideal models were successfully fitted with experimental data. At first, Eley-Rideal model was examined for heterogeneous esterification of acetic acid and ethanol. The pseudo-homogenous model was investigated with a power-law model. The apparent reaction order was determined to be (0.88) for Ethanol and (0.92) for acetic acid with a correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.981 and 0.988, respectively. The reaction order was determined to be 4.1087x10-3 L0.8/(mol0.8.min) with

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 05 2025
Journal Name
Irrigation And Drainage
Predicting Potential Salinity in River Water for Irrigation Water Purposes Using Integrative Machine Learning Models
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ABSTRACT<p>Accurate prediction of river water quality parameters is essential for environmental protection and sustainable agricultural resource management. This study presents a novel framework for estimating potential salinity in river water in arid and semi‐arid regions by integrating a kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) with a boosted salp swarm algorithm based on differential evolution (KELM‐BSSADE). A dataset of 336 samples, including bicarbonate, calcium, pH, total dissolved solids and sodium adsorption ratio, was collected from the Idenak station in Iran and was used for the modelling. Results demonstrated that KELM‐BSSADE outperformed models such as deep random vector funct</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Concentrations and Radiation Hazard Indices of Naturally Radioactive Materials for Flour Samples in Baghdad Markets
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In the present work, Uranium (238U), Thorium (232Th) and Potassium (40K) specific activity concentration in (Bq/kg) was measured in five different types for wheat flours that are available in the Iraqi markets. The gamma spectrometry method with an NaI (Tl) detector has been used for radiometric measurements. Calculations of radium equivalent activity, annual effective dose equivalent, external hazard index (Hex), internal hazard index (Hin), representing gamma index and gamma dose rate in all  flour samples were 17.98132 Bq/kg, 0.0100334, 0.04502, 0.04857, 0.06872, 0.125883 and 8.181244 respectively. It is found that the average of specific activity concentration of wheat flour sam

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 26 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Impact of Social Responsibility on the Financial Performance of Banks: )Applied Research at the Bank of Baghdad)
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The objective of the research is to measure the impact of social responsibility on the financial performance of the Bank of Baghdad for the period from 2014 to 2016 (3 years) through discussing and analyzing the level of practice of the Bank of Baghdad for social responsibility and the impact on their financial performance during the period. To measure the independent variable (CSR), the researcher used the CSR Disclosure Index and relied on the ROA as an indicator to measure the dependent variable (financial performance).The results of the research showed the main hypothesis of the research, which states that the social responsibility of the banks has no significant impact on the financial performance. In relation to the disclosure of s

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 14 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Correlation between Periodontal Health Status and Salivary Matrix Metalloproteinase-9 Levels in Smoker and Non-Smoker Chronic Periodontitis Patients (A Comparative Study)
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Background: Periodontal diseases are inflammatory diseases affecting the supporting tissues of the teeth. One of the leading environmental factors that are closely related not only to the risk but also to the prognosis of periodontitis is smoking. This study aimed to evaluate the influence of smoking on periodontal health status and to measure the levels of matrix metalloproteinase-9 in smokers and nonsmokers chronic periodontitis patients, also it aimed to test the correlation between the levels of matrix metalloproteinase-9 and the clinical periodontal parameters. Materials and Methods: Five milliliters samples of un-stimulated whole saliva and full-mouth clinical periodontal recordings (plaque index, gingival index, bleeding on probing,

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 15 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Personality Types in relation to dental caries and salivary testosterone among teachers in Baghdad city
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Background: Personality could be defined broadly as those characteristics of individuals that describe the pattern of feeling, cognition and behaving. Personality types can be measured by using one of personality type’s measures. Personality has been proposed to influence the oral health. The purpose of the present study was to assess the influence of Personality Types on caries experience in relation to salivary testosterone hormone among teachers in Baghdad city. Materials and Methods: Female teachers (n=534) of randomly selected schools were subjected to personality questionnaire using The Riso-Hudson Enneagram Type Indicator. Teachers were examined to estimate the caries experience according to the decayed-missing and filled i

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 21 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Analytical Study of National Housing Finance Policies and Implementation Strategies Case Study: Baghdad Governorate
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           Housing finance is one of the main components of housing, and it is relied upon to help families buy, build, add building, and housing improve. Accordingly, different countries all over the world set policies and strategies for the purpose of organizing and developing the financial sector to solve quantitative and qualitative housing problems.

This research aims to identify housing finance policies and strategies in Iraq and Baghdad governorate.

The most prominent sources of housing financing are the Real Estate Bank and the Housing Fund, and accordingly the focus has been on the role of these two institutions in filling

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Standraidization of Post traumatic Stress Disorder Scale on Students of University of Baghdad
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There are a lot of measures for Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), but what distinguishes it from other measures is the number of short paragraphs and concise depending on the classification of American Psychiatric Association (APA), which can be applied by the researchers on a large number, Because the Iraqi society suffered from psychological trauma due to wars, conflicts and occupation and the resulting psychological disorders of the members of Iraqi society, especially post-traumatic stress disorder, as mentioned by many studies and researches.

Therefore, the aim of this study was to standardize the PTSD scale for students at Baghdad University. For the Psychologist Fua . E. which was applied in many foreign studies. 

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effective administrative leadership in the implementation of public policies: Analytical look at the Baghdad Provincial Council
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Abstract

      The current research aims to find out the role of administrative leadership in the implementation of public policies and their effectiveness and their ability to do so, As well as analysis and testing of influence and correlations between research variables, The researcher has the descriptive and analytical approach, And several tools used to gather information consisted of personal interviews and field visits, While distributed questionnaire tool that consists of (35) items on a sample consisting of (147) individuals formed of staff of the Baghdad Provincial Council.

The research was based on a set of assum

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