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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2002
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
SEASONAL CHANGES OF THE TESTES IN THE MARSH FROGE RANA RIDIBUNDA PALLAS, 1771
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Samples of marsh frog included 148 sexually mature males were collected in Baghdad
from December 1992 to December 1993 to December 1993. The testis weight was expressed
as percentage of the body weight. The percent mean weights of testis were at their minimal
weight (0.255%) during April (spawning period).
Testis weight has increased until reached its greatest average weight in August (0.785%).
During the winter there is a slight decrease in weight with a more obvious fall at the spawning
months. From the results obtained from the present work on Rana ridibunda and from the
observations on annual cycle in testis weight of some temperate zone anurans we notice that
testes tend to be lowest after spawning and the te

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2023
Journal Name
Al-mustansiriyah Journal Of Science
Seasonal Optimum Tilt Angle of Solar Panels for 100 Cities in the World
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Solar energy is the most abundant renewable energy source. This energy can be converted directly into electricity using solar panels. The fixed tilt solar panels are the most practical and the most widely installed throughout the world. Optimum tilt angle calculation has the advantage that it does not use expensive solar trackers. This research calculates the seasonal optimum tilt angle of solar panels for 17 cities in Iraq and 83 cities in 83 countries distributed around the world. Solar Panel Angle Calculator program was used in calculating the optimum tilt angles from vertical. The optimum tilt angle varies between 6° and 112° throughout the year. This angle for winter, spring/ autumn and summer seasons are found to be between

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Factor Analysis In Determine the Important Influenced Factors In Student Outcomes Pheonema From Primary School In The Province Of Baghdad
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Abstract

The Purpose of This Research is The  Main Factors  In out Comes Phenomena From Primary School Which in Creased in Lost Period in Iraq And to Find Solutions to The This Problem.

In Order to Achieve Al The Aim The Research Choose a Systematic Random Sample of School Records For Students in Some Primary Schools in Karkh and Rusafa and Year of Study (2010-2015) and Size (40) Samples, included  (16) Variable , Collected in Form Prepared by The Research As a Way to Analyze The Data.

Remember to Summarize The (6) Main components Pay a Student to Drop out of Primary Schools in The Province of Baghdad are Arranged As Follows:

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Publication Date
Thu May 14 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The Impact of the Method of Dealing with the Product of Wars in the Continuity of the Crisis Wars. Beirut city as an Example
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This research investigates the subject of the impact of wars (as a manifestation of crisis) on architecture, and the extent of continuing wars physical and moral results of wars, even after the end of the cause of the crisis. The impact of different rebuilding which exposed to the effects of the war seems different in crisis regions.

The problem of research is about the uncertainty of the impact of the way chooses for reconstructing the buildings after wars in the continuity of the crisis of war. The goals of this research are to clarify the influence of methods of reconstruction of buildings in a city chosen which is Beirut, on the continuation of the war crisis with the argument of demolishing and rebuilding newly or keeping tr

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 19 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
التنمية الحضرية للمناطق السكنية غير الرسمية/العشوائية المتدهورة في مدينة بغداد
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Publication Date
Fri Jan 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
نمذجة توزيع المدارس الابتدائية في مدينة الفلوجة باستخدام نظم المعلومات الجغرافية G.I.S
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Publication Date
Wed Sep 29 2021
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The attitude of Imam Ibn Jarir al-Tabari to the occurrence of unanimous and its convening by statement of the majority in light of his interpretation - Jami` al-Bayan on the interpretation of the verse of the Qur’an -‘‘Applied Models’’
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The research deals with the statement of the importance of unanimous in Islamic Sharia in terms of being the third source of Islamic legislation after the Holy Qur’an and the Sunnah of the Prophet, and the extent of interest of the scholars of interpretation in it, and those who took great interest in mentioning what was agreed upon in every site that necessitated mentioning its issues within, or mentioning an event that has encountered an unanimous, and in various sciences, to extract and extrapolate Sharia rules when these rules are lost in the texts, because it is based on them and derived from them. Among these distinguished scholars is Muhammad bin Jarir al-Tabari. Besides, the research discusses in

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
The Burden of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease COPD in Stable Patients and its Association with Inflammatory Biomarkers and Body Mass Index
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Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a progressive airflow limitation that is preventable but not curable. It is associated with persistent symptoms that cause a considerable burden on individual productivity at work, and daily activities, and reduced quality of life, also burdening the healthcare system and society. Objectives: The study aims to measure the burden of COPD on patients in terms of daily activities and work productivity. It also seeks to investigate some inflammatory biomarkers' levels and their correlation with selected outcomes. Patients and Methods: A cross-sectional study on 120 stable COPD patients who were diagnosed and treated according to the GOLD guidelines at Kirkuk General Hospital's

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 23 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Phototoxic effect of visible blue light on Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans and Porphyromonas gingivalis in patients with chronic periodontitis (An in-vitro study)
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Background: The aim of this study was to determine phototoxic effect of visible blue light on anaerobic periodontal pathogens namely Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans and Porphyromonas gingivalis. Materials and methods: Strains of Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans and Porphyromonas gingivalis were isolated from pockets of systemically healthy patients aged between 35-55 years old with pocket depths of 5-6 mm, the bacteria cultured on special blood Agar plates solid media, then subjected to visible blue light emitted from commercially available light cure devise (LED curing light); that emits blue light (400-500nm) of 1000mw energy at different periods of time exposures, then the CFU of each plate was measured by direct colony count

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 01 2021
Journal Name
The Iraqi Postgraduate Medical Journal
Knowledge of Hypertensive Patients Attending Al-Imamein Kadhimein Medical City Regarding Follow-Up Visits
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