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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The reality of succession planning Under the retirement law No. (26) of 2019 / Applied research in the medical city
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This research aims to know the reality of succession planning in the researched organization and how it occupies the important jobs in the organization and its readiness for sudden and urgent events that lead to the vacancy of these jobs, and the importance of this research is that it is one of the rare Arab and Iraqi studies and research in this field, as it is one of the first researches It deals with the reality of succession planning in light of the retirement law No. (26) of 2019, and the research problem was the absence of consecutive planning programs and the weak preparation of suitable candidates to face sudden and urgent conditions as replacements for current leaders who occupy the leading and key positions in the depar

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 29 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Surface Roughness Prediction for Steel 304 In Edm Using Response Graph Modeling
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Electrical Discharge Machining (EDM) is a non-traditional cutting technique for metals removing which is relied upon the basic fact that negligible tool force is produced during the machining process. Also, electrical discharge machining is used in manufacturing very hard materials that are electrically conductive. Regarding the electrical discharge machining procedure, the most significant factor of the cutting parameter is the surface roughness (Ra). Conventional try and error method is time consuming as well as high cost. The purpose of the present research is to develop a mathematical model using response graph modeling (RGM). The impact of various parameters such as (current, pulsation on time and pulsation off time) are studied on

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of Using Information and Communication Technology to Improving the Quality of Blended Learning Elements’, a Survey Study at the Technical College of Management /Baghdad
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 The research has been based on two main variables (information and communication technology) and the quality of blended education (physical and electronic), aiming to reveal the relationship between four dimensions (physical devices, software, databases, communication networks) and the elements of education represented by (the teacher, the student, the teaching process, curriculum).  The methodology and post-analysis-based research were conducted at the Technical College of Management / Baghdad through polling the opinions of a random sample that included (80) teachers out of (86) and the number of students (276) representing a random sample from all departments of the college (for the morning study) out of (3500) stud

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 15 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Antibacterial Effect of Aqueous and Alcoholic Propolis Extracts on Aggregatibacter Actinomycetemcomitans in Patients with Chronic Periodontitis (An In-vitro Study)
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Background: Propolis has received great interest because of its wide range antimicrobial activity. Propolis also called (bee glue) due to its collection by (Apismellifera) honeybees from various plants resinous substance. The aim of this study was to determine the antibacterial effect of propolis extracts (aqueous and alcoholic) on anaerobic periodontal pathogen namely Aggregatibacteractinomycetemcomitans. Materials and Methods: Strains of Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans wasisolated from pockets of systemically healthy patients aged between 35-55 years old suffering from chronic periodontitis with pocket depths of 5-6 mm, the bacteria cultured on special blood Agar plates solid media. Propolis was extracted by using water and alcohol.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 09 2019
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Early Detection of Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction in Asymptomatic Patients with Chronic Aortic Regurgitation by two Dimensional Speckle Tracking Echocardiography
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Background: Early detection of subclinical left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction is crucial and could influence patients' prognosis by aiding the clinician to candidate patients for better management.

Objective: To detect early LV systolic dysfunction in asymptomatic patient with chronic aortic regurgitation by two dimensional speckle tracking echocardiography.

 Methods:  Sixty one asymptomatic patients with chronic aortic regurgitation, with no ischemic heart diseases (by coronary angiography) or conductive heart diseases, no diabetes mellitus, no hypertension, and no other valvular heart diseases (group 1) and fifty age and sex-matched healthy subjects (

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
A prospective study on sexual deviation deployed in Baghdad crimes
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The current research aims to identify the types and rates and the reasons for the crimes that are with the origin and sexual scattered deviation between the fabric of Iraqi society, which reticent about because of the culture of the community, where he offered a researcher investigator justice and tribal leaders and lawyers about proportion and the types and causes of crime is the origin of sexual deviance and finally a question asked a researcher in 1000 young lived their adolescence days of the former regime (1979-2003) from going to brothels researcher found that 920 people and 92% had gone to the house to practice adultery and that 70 of them, and by 7% had engaged in masturbation only and that 10 of them have not committed anything

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Climate change and dust storms in Iraq / 'Baghdad', case study
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A dust storm in Iraq is a climatic phenomenon common in arid and semi-arid regions . The frequency of the occurrence has increased drastically in the last decade and it is increasing continuously .Baghdad city like the rest of Iraq is suffering from the significant increase in dust storms . In this research , the study of the phenomenon of dust storms for all types (Suspended dust , rising dust , dust storm) , and its relationship with some climate variables (Temperature , rainfall ,wind speed) .The statement of the impact of climate change on this phenomenon to Baghdad station  for the period (1981 – 2012) . Time series has been addressing the phenomenon of storms and cli

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 27 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of Women’s Knowledge about Health Promotion after Cesarean Delivery at Maternity and Pediatric Hospital in Al-Samawa City
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Objective(s): To assess women’s knowledge about health promotion after a cesarean delivery and to determine the association between women’s knowledge and their demographic data of age, level of education, and monthly income.
Methodology: A descriptive design is carried out to assess women’s knowledge about health promotion after cesarean delivery at Maternity and Pediatric Hospital in Al-Samawa City. This study starts from 26th of September 2020 up to 16th March 2021. Sample of (100) woman who are at reproductive age, pregnant (prime or multipara) who have planned to have birth by elective cesarean section or had previous elective caesarian section without medical indication or women who had cesarean section with medical indicat

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Factors associated with the phenomenon of marriage outside the court And the consequences of it A field study in Sadr City
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Marriage outside the court is a manifestation of the oppression that women are subjected to in Iraq its seriousness comes out of the consequences that it leads to The. It overlooks the age of the girl and her marriage in younger age or coerced to marry as it leads to neglecting the affordability of marital relationship as long as the marriage does not have any legal or material consequences. The present study aims to detect Characteristics of both wives, husbands and families Who agree to marry her daughters outside the court. And the reasons that lead them to marry outside the courts. It also aims to provide information on the circumstances of marriage and reasons for refusing to ratify it in court. The study was based on the sample soc

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2002
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
SEASONAL CHANGES OF THE TESTES IN THE MARSH FROGE RANA RIDIBUNDA PALLAS, 1771
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Samples of marsh frog included 148 sexually mature males were collected in Baghdad
from December 1992 to December 1993 to December 1993. The testis weight was expressed
as percentage of the body weight. The percent mean weights of testis were at their minimal
weight (0.255%) during April (spawning period).
Testis weight has increased until reached its greatest average weight in August (0.785%).
During the winter there is a slight decrease in weight with a more obvious fall at the spawning
months. From the results obtained from the present work on Rana ridibunda and from the
observations on annual cycle in testis weight of some temperate zone anurans we notice that
testes tend to be lowest after spawning and the te

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