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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 13 2014
Journal Name
Environmental Monitoring And Assessment
Estimating the health risks associated with air pollution in Baghdad City, Iraq
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 15 2020
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Land cover change for Baghdad City in the period 1986 to 2019
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Earth cover of the city of Baghdad was studied exclusively within its administrative border during the period 1986-2019 using satellite scenes every five years, as Landsat TM5 and OLI8 satellite images were used. The land has been classified into ten subclasses according to the characteristics of the land cover and was classified using the Maximum Likelihood classifier. A study of the changing urban reality of the city of Baghdad during that period and the change of vegetation due to environmental factors, human influences and some human phenomena that affected the accuracy of the classification for some areas east of the city of Baghdad is presented. The year 2019 has been highlighted because of its privacy in changing the land cover of th

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
Comparison between the estimated of nonparametric methods by using the methodology of quantile regression models
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This paper study two stratified quantile regression models of the marginal and the conditional varieties. We estimate the quantile functions of these models by using two nonparametric methods of smoothing spline (B-spline) and kernel regression (Nadaraya-Watson). The estimates can be obtained by solve nonparametric quantile regression problem which means minimizing the quantile regression objective functions and using the approach of varying coefficient models. The main goal is discussing the comparison between the estimators of the two nonparametric methods and adopting the best one between them

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
A prospective study on sexual deviation deployed in Baghdad crimes
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The current research aims to identify the types and rates and the reasons for the crimes that are with the origin and sexual scattered deviation between the fabric of Iraqi society, which reticent about because of the culture of the community, where he offered a researcher investigator justice and tribal leaders and lawyers about proportion and the types and causes of crime is the origin of sexual deviance and finally a question asked a researcher in 1000 young lived their adolescence days of the former regime (1979-2003) from going to brothels researcher found that 920 people and 92% had gone to the house to practice adultery and that 70 of them, and by 7% had engaged in masturbation only and that 10 of them have not committed anything

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Climate change and dust storms in Iraq / 'Baghdad', case study
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A dust storm in Iraq is a climatic phenomenon common in arid and semi-arid regions . The frequency of the occurrence has increased drastically in the last decade and it is increasing continuously .Baghdad city like the rest of Iraq is suffering from the significant increase in dust storms . In this research , the study of the phenomenon of dust storms for all types (Suspended dust , rising dust , dust storm) , and its relationship with some climate variables (Temperature , rainfall ,wind speed) .The statement of the impact of climate change on this phenomenon to Baghdad station  for the period (1981 – 2012) . Time series has been addressing the phenomenon of storms and cli

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Clinicopathological assessment of chronic hyperplastic candidasis
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Background: Chronic hyperplastic candidiasis is the least common type of oral candidiasis. The diagnosis, long-term treatment, and prognosis of this potentially malignant oral condition are still currently unclear. Objective: the aim of this study is to analyze the demographic features and clinical characteristics of oral chronic hyperplastic candidiasis. Materials and Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on blocks and case sheets of patients who were diagnosed with chronic hyperplastic candidiasis in the archives of Oral and Maxillofacial Pathology at the College of Dentistry/University of Baghdad. Demographic and clinical characteristics were analyzed. Results: twenty-one cases with chronic hyperplastic candidiasis were coll

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 29 2021
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The attitude of Imam Ibn Jarir al-Tabari to the occurrence of unanimous and its convening by statement of the majority in light of his interpretation - Jami` al-Bayan on the interpretation of the verse of the Qur’an -‘‘Applied Models’’
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The research deals with the statement of the importance of unanimous in Islamic Sharia in terms of being the third source of Islamic legislation after the Holy Qur’an and the Sunnah of the Prophet, and the extent of interest of the scholars of interpretation in it, and those who took great interest in mentioning what was agreed upon in every site that necessitated mentioning its issues within, or mentioning an event that has encountered an unanimous, and in various sciences, to extract and extrapolate Sharia rules when these rules are lost in the texts, because it is based on them and derived from them. Among these distinguished scholars is Muhammad bin Jarir al-Tabari. Besides, the research discusses in

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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2006
Journal Name
East Mediterr Health J
Prevalence of HCV/HIV co-infection among haemophilia patients in Baghdad
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Abstract To estimate the seroprevalence of HCV infection among HIV-infected haemophiliacs and to demonstrate the most prevalent HCV genotype, 47 HIV-infected haemophilia patients were screened for anti-HCV antibodies. By performing polymerase chain reaction and DNA enzyme immunoassay, HCV-RNA was detected with subsequent genotyping. Seroprevalence of anti-HCV antibodies was 66.0%. Of 31 HCV/HIV co-infected patients, 21 (67.7%) had no history of blood transfusion. We detected 4 HCV genotypes: 1a, 1b, 4 and 4 mixed with 3a, HCV-1b being the most frequent. Contaminated factor VIII (clotting factor) could be responsible for disease acquisition.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Psychological Burdens of Children with Anorectal Malformation on Mothers at Pediatric Teaching Hospitals in Baghdad City
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Objective(s): The main aim of the study is to determine the level of burden on mothers toward children with anorectal malformation.
Methodology: A descriptive study was carried out at Welfare Pediatric Teaching Hospital and Central Pediatric Teaching Hospital in Baghdad City. From November 15th, 2017 to April 29th, 2018. Convenient sample comprised of (140) children mothers with anorectal malformation were interviewed for the study. The instrument of study is composed of six domains related mothers' burden toward psychosocial burden as a result of child with anorectal malformation. Validity of the study instrument was determined through a panel of experts and the reliability of the questionnaire is determined in a pilot study among (1

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison between the logistic regression model and Linear Discriminant analysis using Principal Component unemployment data for the province of Baghdad
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     The objective of the study is to demonstrate the predictive ability is better between the logistic regression model and Linear Discriminant function using the original data first and then the Home vehicles to reduce the dimensions of the variables for data and socio-economic survey of the family to the province of Baghdad in 2012 and included a sample of 615 observation with 13 variable, 12 of them is an explanatory variable and the depended variable is number of workers and the unemployed.

     Was conducted to compare the two methods above and it became clear by comparing the  logistic regression model best of a Linear Discriminant  function written

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