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jeasiq-720
Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Mon May 20 2019
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Effect of Metformin and Glimepiride Treatment on Some Biochemical Parameters in Diabetic Male Patients with Chronic Renal Failure
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The present study was included a measurements of fasting serum glucose, total protein, potassium, and calcium levels in the sera of 25 diabetic male patients suffer from chronic renal failure; their ages range were (32-75) and compared them with 25 healthy males as control group. The aim of this study was to study the effects of antidiabetic drugs on some biochemical parameters such as fasting serum glucose, serum total protein, serum potassium and calcium. The current results demonstrated a hyperkalemia in patients and this increasing of potassium is significantly (p = 0.03), but calcium level showed no significant variations ( p>0.05 ), and serum total protein was significantly decreased in patients as compared to t

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 30 2022
Journal Name
Research Journal Of Pharmacy And Technology
The Distribution of ABO blood groups among type 2 Diabetes mellitus patients with or without Chronic Microvascular Complications
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The ABO blood group system is highly polymorphic, with more than 20 distinct sub-groups; study findings are usually related to ABO phenotype, but rarely to the ABO genotype and animal models are unsatisfactory because their antigen glycosylation structure is different from humans. Both the ABO and Rh blood group systems have been associated with a number of diseases, but this is more likely related to the presence or absence of these tissue antigens throughout the body and not directly or primarily related to their presence on RBCs. A total of fifty-two 52 patients without complication of DMII, two hundred sixteen 216 patients with complication of DMII and seventy-one 71 person as healthy control were included in the study. The resu

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Gastroenterology Review
The impact of sofosbuvir/ledipasvir on chronic hepatitis C-infected paediatric patients: a Middle East single-centre experience
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Publication Date
Sat May 01 2021
Journal Name
European Journal Of General Dentistry
Assessment of Serum Interleukin-1β and Interleukin-6 Levels in Patients with Chronic Periodontitis and Coronary Heart Disease
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Abstract<p> Objective The aim of this study was to assess whether serum cytokine levels correlate with clinical periodontal parameters in health or disease.</p><p> Materials and Methods Male subjects (40–60 years) with CP (n = 30), CP + CHD (n = 30), and healthy controls (n = 20) had plaque index (PLI), gingival index (GI), bleeding on probing, probing pocket depth (PPD), and clinical attachment level (CAL) evaluated. Serum IL-1β and IL-6 levels were quantified using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.</p><p> Results PLI, GI, PPD, and CAL were significantly higher in patients with CP + CHD compared to those with CP. Serum levels of IL-1β and IL-6 were also si</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Fuzzy Games Theory to Determine the optimal Strategy for The Mobile Phone Networks in The Baghdad And Basra governorates
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      The objective of this research is employ the special cases of  function  trapezoid in the composition of fuzzy sets to make decision within the framework of the theory of games traditional to determine the best strategy for the mobile phone networks in the province of  Baghdad and Basra, has been the adoption of different periods of the  functions belonging to see the change happening in the matrix matches and the impact  that the strategies  and decision-making  available to each player and the impact on  societ

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 28 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Increasing the design efficiency of roads in Al-Shatrah city center by achieving adequacy for car parking
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        The research deals with the analysis of the city's commercial center using geographic information systems to solve the problem of congestion by evaluating the efficiency and adequacy of car parking lots according to local and Arab standards. Undoubtedly, the importance of car parking areas, as they are not within the desired efficiency within the city, will lead to congestion and traffic becomes very difficult. Thus, the transportation service loses its most important characteristic, which is the ease of movement. Therefore, there has become an urgent need to study and analyze it, as well as to verify the adequacy of the service, and the amount of deficit required to be provided to solve the tra

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Publication Date
Fri May 02 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Evaluation of the effectiveness of coenzyme Q10 gel in management of patients with chronic periodontitis (I intra group comparison)
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Background: Periodontal pathogens can induce free radicals over-formation and thus may cause collagen and periodontal destruction. Anti-oxidants are used as supplements to counteract the over production of free radicals in periodontal disease, that can reduce of collagen destruction. Coenzyme Q10 serves as an endogenous antioxidant, regenerates other antioxidants, stimulates cell growth, and inhibits cell death. Because it is an antioxidant, coenzyme Q10 has received much research attention associated with periodontal diseases. Perio Q gel may possibly be effective as a topical agent and as an adjunct to scaling& root planing in treatment of gingivitis and chronic periodontitis. Aim of study:Determine the periodontal health status in a foll

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 30 2013
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Using the Abbreviated Version of Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Formula as A Primary Estimate for the Prevalence of Undiagnosed Chronic Kidney Disease in Patients with Acute Stroke
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Introduction: The association between acute stroke and
renal function is well known. The aim of this study is to
know which group of patients with acute stroke is more
likely to have undiagnosed Chronic Kidney Disease and
which risk factors are more likely to be associated with.
Methods:We studied 77 patients who were diagnosed to
have an acute stroke.Patients were selected between
April2011andJune 2011 using the " 4-variable
Modification of
Diet in Renal Disease Formula " which estimates
Glomerular Filtration Rate using four variables :serum
creatinine ,age ,race and gender.
Results :The study included 38 male and 39 females
patients ,aged (35-95) years. Glomerular Filtration Rate in
patients wi

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 15 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Caries experience and treatment needs among footballers in Baghdad city
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Background: footballers may have poor oral health like elevated levels of dental caries. The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence and severity of dental caries in Iraqi footballers and to measure dental treatments needs. Materials and methods: 403 Iraqi males footballers aged from 18-32 years were included in the study. The cases were recruited from 18 clubs in Baghdad city. Results: the results of present study showed increased percent of caries experience according to age increase and decreased dental caries percent as education level increased among Iraqi footballers. Decayed component was found to be the largest of DMFS value compared to MS and FS among all age groups, Caries experience was found to be increased as age

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2022
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Heavy metals pollution profiles in Tigris River within Baghdad city
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Abstract<p>The Tigris River is a major source of Iraq’s drinking and agricultural water supply. An increase in pollution by heavy metals can be a great threat to human and aquatic life. In this study, the pollution index (PI) and metal index (MI) were used to evaluate the status of the Tigris River in Baghdad City. Five stations were chosen to conduct the study. Five heavy metals were analyzed: iron (Fe), lead (Pb), nickel (Ni), zinc (Zn), and chromium (Cr). The result of PI was ranked between “No effect to moderately affected for Fe; Slightly Affected to Seriously Affected for Pb; no effect to moderately affected for Ni, and no effect to strongly affected for Cr; only Zn was in the No effec</p> ... Show More
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