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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2026
Journal Name
Next Materials
Valorization of aluminum waste wire into nanostructured Al2O3: Sustainable synthesis, characterization, and evaluation as a drilling-fluid additive for the oil and gas industry
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Industrial machining workshops generate substantial quantities of aluminum wire offcuts and filings that cannot be re-entered into bulk metal recycling circuits, posing both a resource management challenge and a potential environmental burden. This study demonstrates a closed-loop valorization route in which this low-grade aluminum waste is converted into nanostructured aluminum oxide (Al2O3) nanoparticles (NPs) by two scalable synthesis pathways (i) chemo-thermal calcination of precipitated Al(OH)₃ at 1000 °C and 1200 °C for 1 and 4 h, and (ii) direct chemical precipitation via AlCl3/Na2CO3 reaction, and then deployed as a functional additive in water-based drilling fluids (WBDFs) used by the oil and gas industry. Comprehensive chara

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 03 2013
Journal Name
Heat Transfer-asian Research
CFD Simulation of Heat Transfer Augmentation in a Circular Tube Fitted with Alternative Axis Twisted Tape in Laminar Flow under a Constant Heat Flux
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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2024
Journal Name
Results In Materials
Fabrication and characterization of mesoporous calcium silicate and silver-incorporated mesoporous calcium silicate nanoparticles with low cytotoxicity and antibacterial properties as a dental biomaterial
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Publication Date
Mon Dec 20 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
STUDY THE PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL PROPERTIES AND DETERMINATION THE CYTOTOXICITY OF KOJIC ACID PRODUCED FROM THE LOCAL ISOLATE ASPERGILLUS FLAVUS WJF81 AND THEIR EFFECTS ON CONSUMER HEALTH.: STUDY THE PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL PROPERTIES AND DETERMINATION THE CYTOTOXICITY OF KOJIC ACID PRODUCED FROM THE LOCAL ISOLATE ASPERGILLUS FLAVUS WJF81 AND THEIR EFFECTS ON CONSUMER HEALTH.
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Steps were taken to obtain the Kojic acid crystals from local fungal isolation A. flavus WJF81 by separating the fermentation products from the fungus mycelium from the production plant at the centrifuge at a speed of 5000 cycles for 10 minutes. The extraction was followed by ethyl acetate then supernatant concentrate by using rotary evaporator, and dried with heat oven 37ºC. Long, yellowish, pristine acid crystals were obtained that examined the optical microscope with a magnification force of 10x and 40x. The melting point of kojic acid was determined between 152.9-153.5 °C Results of the diagnosis of Kojic acid by applying High pressure liquid chromatography HPLC technique showed that the acid was at one peak, which was close to the

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
تناول البحث تطورات بنية الانفاق الحكومي للمدة (1990-2014) اذ تشمل هذه المدة مدتين مختلفتين من حيث الظروف اذ اتسمت المدة الاولى (1990-2002) بفرض العقوبات الاقتصادية وحرمان الاقتصاد العراقي من المورد النفطي ,في حين اتسمت المدة الثانية (2003-2014) بوفرة ال
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  The research explain the developments in the structure of government Expenditure for the period (1990-2014), this period include tow different periods in terms of the conditions, the first period (1990-2002)characterized by imposing the economic sanctions and deny the Iraqi economy from the oil revenues, while the second period (2003-2014) marked by abundance resource rents as a result of lifting the ban on oil exports, (autoregressive Distributed lag Model) has been used to measure the impact of government Expenditure in both side current and investment in the oil-GDP (gross domestic product) and non oil-GDP, the stady found that there is no significant relationship between current Expenditure in non-oil and oil-GDP in bo

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 02 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Preparation, Study and Theortical Treatment of Co(II) Ni(II) Cu(II) and Zn(II) Schiff Base Coplexes with Sodium [N-(hydroxyl naphtholidine) Glycine imino].
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Anew Schiff base (NaHL) has been prepared from the reaction between the salt of amino acid glycine with 2-hydroxy naphthaldehyde. By tridentate Schiff base of (ONO), donors were characterized by using U.V and spectrophotometer techniques. Complexes of Co(II) Ni(II) Cu(II) and Zn(II) ion with the ligand have been prepared, these complexes were identified by infrared, electronic spectral data, elemental analysis, magnetic moments, and molar conductivity measurements. It is concluded from the elemental analysis that all the complexes have (1:2) [metal:ligand] molar ratios, octahedral, with the exception to Zn(II) complex which have (1:1)[metal:ligand] molar ratio.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2023
Journal Name
لارك
Expressions of probability in Spanish language and their translation into Arabic (Empirical study)تعابير الاحتمالية في اللغة الاسبانية و ترجمتها الى اللغة العربية: دراسة تطبيقية
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The probability is considered one of the grammatical cases in all languages of the world. Expressions of probability in Spanish language are expressed by various structures, expressions and some verb tenses. By this study explains the grammatical cases, the verbal periphrases, the impersonal expressions, the future tenses (simple and perfect) and the conditional mode of probability in Spanish language .We have explains these cases in detail with examples that have extracted from various spanish grammar books .The specific objective of this study is to know the resources and constructions of probability in Spanish language and their translation in Arabic language.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
International Medical Journal
Effect of Accelerated Canine Retraction by Vitamin D3 Local Administration on Apical Root Resorption, Alveolar Bone Integrity, and Chair-side Time: A Prospective Clinical Study.
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Objectives: To evaluate the effect of vitamin D3 local injections on apical root resorption, alveolar bone integrity, and chair-side time following three and six months of canine retraction. Subjects and Methods: Seventeen adult patients (18-35 years old) of class I and II malocclusions were recruited, who required bilateral maxillary 1st premolars extraction before starting maxillary canines retraction. The experimental side received 25 pg dose of vitamin D3 injected locally into the distal periodontal sulcus of the canine (before force application) every three weeks, while the control side received retraction force only. Periapical radiographic evaluation was conducted after 3 and 6 months of the start of canines' retraction. Results: At

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Contemporary experimental currents and its impact on the structure of the contemporary Iraqi theatrical text "The epic theater as a model": هيثم حمزة سلمان الحمداني
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  In this research study, I tried to trace the epic effect to learn how it was understood and how it was used. Following the descriptive and analytical approach in the research, the first chapter dealt with a presentation of the methodological framework of the problem, the goal, the limits of the research, the importance and the need for it and the definition of terms, as well as the theoretical framework which consisted of two topics, including the impact of the epic theater on the world theater and the second the effect of the epic theater on the Arab theater, This came by tracing the epic impact on the world stage of the Greeks, the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, and the Arab theater of the twentieth century.
As for the second

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 28 2024
Journal Name
Al-rafidain Journal Of Medical Sciences ( Issn 2789-3219 )
The Effects of -806 T/C and -857 T/C Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms in the TNF-α Gene on Rheumatoid Arthritis Severity and Inflammatory Markers
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Background: Polymorphisms in the TNF-α gene affect the development and progression of rheumatoid arthritis. Objective: To investigate the associations between (-806 T/C) and (-857 T/C) SNPs with rheumatoid arthritis severity and susceptibility in a sample of Iraqi patients. Methods: A case-control study was conducted in Baghdad, Iraq. Twenty healthy controls and 63 patients confirmed to be newly diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis were included. Those are divided into two groups (patients and controls), and the patients were further subdivided into severe and mild-moderate groups. Samples from those participants were analyzed for clinical and inflammatory parameter measurements. Genotyping by the Sanger method was performed to stu

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