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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 04 2016
Journal Name
European Journal Of Oral Sciences
Experimental polyethylene-hydroxyapatite carrier-based endodontic system: an in vitro study on dynamic thermomechanical properties, sealing ability, and measurements of micro-computed tomography voids
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The dynamic thermomechanical properties, sealing ability, and voids formation of an experimental obturation hydroxyapatite-reinforced polyethylene (HA/PE) composite/carrier system were investigated and compared with those of a commercial system [GuttaCore (GC)]. The HA/PE system was specifically designed using a melt-extrusion process. The viscoelastic properties of HA/PE were determined using a dynamic thermomechanical analyser. Human single-rooted teeth were endodontically instrumented and obturated using HA/PE or GC systems, and then sealing ability was assessed using a fluid filtration system. In addition, micro-computed tomography (μCT) was used to quantify apparent voids within the root-canal space. The data were statistically analys

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2012
Journal Name
Natural Science
Determination of threshold random gain medium in dye: Polymer films containing TiO<sub>2</sub> nanoparticles
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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Engineering And Technology Journal
Synthesis and study of the Novel tetradented ligand type N2O2 and its complexes with (Mn (II) ,Co (II) ,Ni (II) and Cu(II)) ions
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A new Schiff base ligand Bis-1,4-di[N-3-(2-hydroxy-1-amino)- acetophenonylidene] benzylidene [L] and its complexes with (Mn(II) ,Co(II) ,Ni(II and Cu(II)) were synthesized . The ligand was prepared in two steps. In the first step a solution of (terphthalaldehyde) in methanol reacts under reflux with (p-aminoacetophenone) to give an intermediate compound [1-[3-({4-[(3-Acetyl-phenylimino)-methyl]-benzylidene}-amino)-phenyl]- ethanone which reacts in the second step with (2-Amino-phenol) giving the mentioned ligand. The complexes were synthesized by addition the corresponding metal salt solution to the solution of the ligand in methanol under reflux in (1:1) metal to ligand ratio. On the basis of, molar conductance, I.R., UV-Vis, HPLC, chlorid

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Performance Evaluation of Pole Placement and Linear Quadratic Regulator Strategies Designed for Mass-Spring-Damper System Based on Simulated Annealing and Ant Colony Optimization
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This paper investigates the performance evaluation of two state feedback controllers, Pole Placement (PP) and Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR). The two controllers are designed for a Mass-Spring-Damper (MSD) system found in numerous applications to stabilize the MSD system performance and minimize the position tracking error of the system output. The state space model of the MSD system is first developed. Then, two meta-heuristic optimizations, Simulated Annealing (SA) optimization and Ant Colony (AC) optimization are utilized to optimize feedback gains matrix K of the PP and the weighting matrices Q and R of the LQR to make the MSD system reach stabilization and reduce the oscillation of the response. The Matlab softwar

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Publication Date
Sun May 22 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Early Childhood Special Education
The impact of an instructional-learning design based on the brain- compatible model in systemic thinking among first intermediate grade female students in Mathematics
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The research aimed to identify “The impact of an instructional-learning design based on the brain- compatible model in systemic thinking among first intermediate grade female students in Mathematics”, in the day schools of the second Karkh Educational directorate.In order to achieve the research objective, the following null hypothesis was formulated:There is no statistically significant difference at the significance level (0.05) among the average scores of the experimental group students who will be taught by applying an (instructional- learning) design based to on the brain–compatible model and the average scores of the control group students who will be taught through the traditional method in the systemic thinking test.The resear

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 06 2013
Journal Name
Advances In Physics Theories And Applications
Adsorption study of Symmetrical schiff base ligand 4,4 -[hydrazine -1,2- diylidenebis ( methan-1-yl-1-ylidene) bis ( 2-methoxyphenol)] on Granulated Initiated calcined Iraqi …
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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The effect of aqueous extracts and isolation proteinous compound from clove buds on serumglucose, triglyceride , glutathione and malnodialdehyde levels in alloxan induced diabetic mice
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This study was included preparing acold aqueous extract of clove buds The study also comprised the isolation and studying the proteinous compound,which was seperated using gel filtration technique and determined approximately molecular weight of this isolated compound(6799) dalton . The aim of the study demonstrate effects of the crude aqueous, non proteinous extract, proteinous precipitate and proteinous compound on serum glucose, total cholesterol, triglyceride and high density lipoprotein-cholesterol levels, also glutathione and malondialdehyde levels in liver and kidney tissues in diabetic mice-induced alloxan.Extracts were administerated interaperitioneally. The results were indicated that the crude aqueous, non proteinous extr

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Publication Date
Sun May 22 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Early Childhood Special Education
A training program based on integrating futuristic thinking skills with classroom interaction patterns and its effect on the academic self- efficacy of mathematics teachers
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The research aims to identify the effect of the training program that is based on integrating futuristic thinking skills with classroom interaction patterns on mathematics teachers in order to provide their students with creative solution skills. The research sample consisted of 31teachers (15 teachers for the experimental group and 16 for the control groups). The researcher developed a measure for the academic self-efficacy consisting of (39) items. Its validity, reliability, coefficient of difficulty and discriminatory power were estimated. To analyze the findings, the researcher adopted the Mann-Whitney (U) test and the effect size, and the findings were as follows: There is a statistically significant difference at the significance leve

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Geology, Pb and S Isotope Geochemistry, and Genesis of the Na Bop-Pu Sap Lead-Zinc Deposit in the Cho Don area, Northeastern Vietnam
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The Na Bop-Pu Sap Pb-Zn ore bodies represent a typical vein-type lead-zinc deposit situated in the Cho Don area and are currently being extracted for their lead and zinc resources. This deposit is characterized by its significant scale and quality and is considered one of the prominent lead-zinc deposits in the Cho Don area. Despite its significance, this deposit has not received adequate attention, resulting in limited knowledge of its geology, mineralization, and deposit genesis model. To address this knowledge gap, our study utilized several methodologies, including field surveying, ore mineral analysis under a microscope, and S and Pb isotopic geochemistry. By employing these approaches, we were able to obtain specific insights

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 13 2022
Journal Name
Ibero-american Journal Of Exercise And Sports Psychology
The effect of Sakyo training (S.A.Q) in developing some physical and kinetic abilities and completing 110m hurdles for 16-year-old specialized school players
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The event of crossing the barriers is one of the Power Games activities that have received great attention in the field of researches. Which led to ma..

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