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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Theoretical Study of Charge Transfer in Styryl Thiazilo Quinoxaline Dyes STQ-1, STQ-2,and STQ-3 in Organic Media System
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Charge transfer in styryl dyes STQ-1, STQ-2,and STQ-3 with organic media system has been studied theoretically depending on the Franck- Condon rule and continuum dielectric model . The reorientation energies (eV) were evaluated theoretically depending on dipole momentum, dielectric constant , and refrective index n. The rate constant of charge transfer has been calculated depending on the reorientation energy (eV) ,effective free energy , potential height barrier , and coupling coefficient . A matlap program has been written to calculated the rate constant of charge transfer and other parameter. The results of calculations show that STQ-2 dye is more reaction for charge transfer compare with STQ-1 and STQ-3 dyes

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Orthodontic Science
Presurgical management trends and nasoalveolar molding usage for infants with cleft lip and palate in the capital of a developing country
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BACKGROUNDS Nasoalveolar molding (NAM) application is among presurgical management (PSM) techniques used for infants with cleft lip and palate (CLP). It helps to approximate the palatal cleft and to reshape the nasoalveolar complex prior to primary lip repair. This study aimed to explore types of PSM and the dental speciality provision for infants with CLP in Baghdad. The status of NAM usage and surgeons’ perceptions toward NAM usage were assessed. MATERIALS AND METHODS This is a cross-sectional paper-based questionnaire study that collected responses of surgeons perform primary lip and nose repair regarding PSM. The questionnaire was distributed amongst public and private hospitals in Baghdad. Twenty surgeons were enrolled (only those su

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 08 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Calculation of the total mass stopping power for electrons in some human body tissues in the energy range 0.01-1000 MeV
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The mass collision energy loss (dE/dX), the mass radiative energy loss (Srad/) and the total mass stopping power of electrons in the energy range of 0.01 MeV up to 1000 MeV has been calculated for Lung, Urea and Skin. The results of the present work for the mass collision stopping power of electrons in Lung, Urea and Skin are in excellent agreement with the standard results given by ESTAR program, where the maximum percentage error between the present calculated values and that of ESTAR program in Lung tissue, Urea and Skin tissue is 0.27%, 0.3% and 0.8% respectively. The mass radiative energy loss of electrons in the same energy range is also calculated using a modified equation, and the results are found to be in very good agreem

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 27 2019
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
MICROFACIES ANALYSIS AND BASIN DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENOMANIAN - EARLY TURONIAN SEQUENCE IN THE RAFAI, NOOR AND HALFAYA OIL FIELDS, SOUTHEASTERN IRAQ
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    The stratigraphic sequence of Cenomanian-Early Turonian is composed of Ahmadi, Rumaila, and Mishrif formations in the Rifai, Noor and Halfaya Oil Fields within the Mesopotamian Zone of Iraq, which is bounded at top and bottom by unconformity surfaces. The microfacies analysis of the study wells assisted the recognition of five main environments (open marine, basinal, shallow open marine, Rudist biostrome, and lagoon); these microfacies were indicative of a normal lateral change facies from shallow water facies to deeper water and open marine sediments.

 

    Ahmadi Formation (Early Cenomanian) is characterized by open marine sediments during the transgressive conditions, and would be

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Ingots Defects under the influence of Solidification and Freezing Conditions. : Farouk Mahdi Mansour|Mustafa A. Rijab Al-Najar|Amera kanan Asfur
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The results of research to reach the conditions that prevents the emergence of primary or secondary voids and achieve worker benefit from molded by almost 100%, which was the situation that cast poured in a mold heated and insulated from all sides to achieve freezing directional full starting from the region remote from the casting and ending then. Has also been compared to the microscopic structure of the resulting castings of various molding conditions, as these conditions have achieved the best sound microscopic structures.

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
Estimating the reliability function of the asymmetrical hybrid parallel-series system: Applied study at the state company for vegetable oils industry
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The research studied and analyzed the hybrid parallel-series systems of asymmetrical components by applying different experiments of simulations used to estimate the reliability function of those systems through the use of the maximum likelihood method as well as the Bayes standard method via both symmetrical and asymmetrical loss functions following Rayleigh distribution and Informative Prior distribution. The simulation experiments included different sizes of samples and default parameters which were then compared with one another depending on Square Error averages. Following that was the application of Bayes standard method by the Entropy Loss function that proved successful throughout the experimental side in finding the reliability fun

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Next Generation Information Technology
The effect of the smoothing filter on an image encrypted by the blowfish algorithm then hiding it in a BMP image
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order to increase the level of security, as this system encrypts the secret image before sending it through the internet to the recipient (by the Blowfish method). As The Blowfish method is known for its efficient security; nevertheless, the encrypting time is long. In this research we try to apply the smoothing filter on the secret image which decreases its size and consequently the encrypting and decrypting time are decreased. The secret image is hidden after encrypting it into another image called the cover image, by the use of one of these two methods" Two-LSB" or" Hiding most bits in blue pixels". Eventually we compare the results of the two methods to determine which one is better to be used according to the PSNR measurs

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study the Effect of Graphene on the Contact Angle, Water Absorption and Thermal Stability ( TGA ,DSC) for Blend (Epoxy & Repcoat ZR)
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In this study, polymeric coating was developed by incorporating nano graphene in the polymer blend with applications to oil storage tanks. The oil storage tanks samples were brought from the oil Pipeline Company / Doura refinery in Baghdad. The coating polymer was formed with a blend (epoxy resin and repcoat ZR). The proportion of mixing the mixture was 3:1:1 epoxy resin 21.06 gm: repcoat ZR 10.53 gm: hardener 10.53 gm. The blend/graphene was prepared using in stui-polymerization method with different weight percentage 1, 3, 5, and 7 wt % added to blend. The resulting solution was put in a glass tube on a magnetic stirrer for one hour at a temperature of 40 °C. The result of contact angle and wate

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 11 2019
Journal Name
Global Proceedings Repository American Research Foundation
Preparation, Spectra and Biological Properties of Transition Metals ((III) and (II) Mixed - Ligand Complexes with 5-Chlorosalicylic Acid and L-Valine
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Mixed ligand metal complexes of CrIII, FeIII,II, NiII and CuII have been synthesized using 5-chlorosalicylic acid (5-CSA) as a primary ligand and L-Valine (L-Val) as secondary ligand. The metal complexes have been characterized by elemental analysis, electrical conductance, magnetic susceptibility measurements and spectral studies. The electrical conductance studies of the complexes indicate their electrolytic nature. Magnetic susceptibility measurements revealed paramagnetic nature of the all complexes. Bonding

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2020
Journal Name
Biochemical And Cellular Archives
Immunohistochemical evaluation of epidermal growth factor expression in skin wound treated by capparis spinosa flavonoid extract in alloxan induced diabetes rats
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In diabetes, impaired wound healing and other tissue abnormalities are considered major concerns. Many factorsaffect the time and quality of wound healing. One of the purposes of medical sciences is wound healing in a short time withreduced side effects. The herbal products are more precious in both prophylaxis as well as curative in delayed diabetic woundhealing activity when compared to synthetic drugs.A wide range of evidence has shown that capers plant possesses differentbiological effects, including antioxidant, anticancer and antibacterial effects. Phytochemical analysis shows thatC. spinosahashigh quantities of bioactive constituents, including polyphenolic compounds, which are responsible for its health-promotingeffects. The healing

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