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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 05 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Preparation and Physico-Chemical Investigation Studies for the of Mn(II),Co(II),Ni(II) and Cu(II) Metal Complexes with Ligand 2- Hydroxybenzaldine Urea
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Some of metal compounds have been synthesized of record ligand from aldehid interaction of a substance which is salicyladehyde with another material which is urea. During the analysis of the metal component, The prepared complexes were characterized by elemental analysis, IR ,UV-visible , conductivity and magnetic susceptibility measurements. this confirms the ratio[1:1] between the metal and ligand. It is found that theortical values agree with practical values All the studied complexes are suggested as an octahedral stereochemistry.

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 31 2022
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
A Spotlight on the Experience of E-learning as a Learning Method for the Undergraduate Pediatric Nursing Students in Iraq during the COVID-19 Pandemic
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    The emergence of COVID-19 has resulted in an unprecedented escalation in different aspects of human activities, including medical education. Students and educators across academic institutions have confronted various challenges in following the guidelines of protection against the disease on one hand and accomplishing learning curricula on the other hand. In this short view, we presented our experience in implementing e-learning to the undergraduate nursing students during the present COVID-19 pandemic emphasizing the learning content, barriers, and feedback of students and educators. We hope that this view will trigger the preparedness of nursing faculties in Iraq to deal with this new modality of learning and improve it should t

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2022
Journal Name
Sustainable Materials And Technologies
Green approach for fabrication of graphene from polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottle waste as reactive material for dyes removal from aqueous solution: Batch and continuous study
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Publication Date
Wed Mar 15 2023
Journal Name
Bionatura
Estimating genetic parameters of maize hybrids and parents under different plant densities (Combining ability for yield and some other traits for maize Zea mays L.)
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A field experiment was carried out in the fields of the Field Crops Department - Faculty of Agricultural Engineering Sciences. The study included five inbred lines (ZM43W (ZE), ZM60, ZM49W3E, ZM19, CDCN5), given numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5) to study the hybrid vigor and both general and special combing ability (GCA, SCA) of the half diallel mating method, for the spring and fall seasons (2016). The genetic analysis shows that all crosses gave a positive hybrid vigor for grain yield per unit area at the two population densities. the highest value is 116.20% for cross (3´5 )at low density, and 89.22% for cross( 1´4 )at high density. The hybrid vigor for all crosses is positive at two densities for dry matter yield, crop growth rate an

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 15 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The effect of nano-hydroxy apatite on re-mineralize white spot lesions prior to orthodontic adhesive removal by different techniques (An In vitro comparative study)
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Background: White-spot lesion is one of the problems associated with the fixed orthodontic treatment. The aims of this in-vitro study were to investigate enamel damage depth on adhesive removal when the adhesive were surrounded by sound, demineralized or demineralized enamel that had been re-mineralized prior to adhesive removal using 10% Nano-Hydroxy apatite and to determine the effect of three different adhesive removal techniques. Materials and methods: Composite resin adhesive (3M Unitek) was bonded to 60 human upper premolars teeth which were randomly divided in to three groups each containing ten sound teeth and ten teeth with demineralized and re-mineralized lesions adjacent to the adhesive. A window of 2 mm was prepared on the bucca

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 14 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Cell Surface Expression of 70 KDa Heat Shock Proteins and P21 in Normal Oral Mucosa, Oral Epithelial Dysplasia and Squamous Cell Carcinoma (An Immunohistochemical Study)
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Background: Oral SCC is a complex malignancy where environmental factors, viral infections and genetic alterations most likely interact, and thus give rise to the malignant condition. The HSP70 play a direct role in apoptosis inhibition by aligning the improved integrity of a cell’s proteins with the improved chances of that particular cell’s survival.P21 gene produces p21 protein which is a potent cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor that plays a significant role in carcinogenesis. The aims of the study were to evaluate and compare the immun-histochemical expression of the HSP70 and cell cycle protein p21in NOM, OED, and OSCC. Correlate both marker expressions with each other. Materials and methods: Forty six formalin-fixed, par

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 18 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Enhancement of hydrothermally Co <sub>3</sub> O <sub>4</sub> thin films as H <sub>2</sub> S gas sensor by loading yttrium element
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The gas sensing properties of Co3O4and Co3O4:Y nano structures were investigated. The films were synthesized using the hydrothermal method on a seeded layer. The XRD, SEM analysis and gas sensing properties were investigated for Co3O4and Co3O4:Y thin films. XRD analysis shows that all films are polycrystalline in nature, having a cubic structure, and the crystallite size is (11.7)nm for cobalt oxide and (9.3)nm for the Co3O4:10%Y. The SEM analysis of thin films obviously indicates that Co3O4possesses a nanosphere-like structure and a flower-like structure for Co3O4:Y.The sensitivity, response time and recovery time to a H2S reducing gas were tested at different operating

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 05 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ijsr)
Comparative Study of Some Antibiotic Resistance, Extended Spectrum ß-Lactamases (ESBLs), Metallo ß-Lactamases (MBLs) Produced in Pseudomonas aeruginosa Isolated from Clinical and Food Samples
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A total number of 33 isolates of Pseudomoans aeruginosa were collected from different clinical samples, such as: burn, wound and urine from patients attending Al-Yarmouk teaching hospital and some private clinical laboratories in Baghdad city through the period from October to December 2016. On the other hand, 21 isolates of P. aeruginosa were collected from 38 different food samples; such as: vegetables and fruits, from different local markets in Baghdad city during the period from November to December 2016. All isolates were identified by using different bacteriological and biochemical assays and confirmed by Vitek-2 identification system. The antimicrobial susceptibility test for clinical and food isolates towards 17 antimicrobial a

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
تناول البحث تطورات بنية الانفاق الحكومي للمدة (1990-2014) اذ تشمل هذه المدة مدتين مختلفتين من حيث الظروف اذ اتسمت المدة الاولى (1990-2002) بفرض العقوبات الاقتصادية وحرمان الاقتصاد العراقي من المورد النفطي ,في حين اتسمت المدة الثانية (2003-2014) بوفرة ال
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  The research explain the developments in the structure of government Expenditure for the period (1990-2014), this period include tow different periods in terms of the conditions, the first period (1990-2002)characterized by imposing the economic sanctions and deny the Iraqi economy from the oil revenues, while the second period (2003-2014) marked by abundance resource rents as a result of lifting the ban on oil exports, (autoregressive Distributed lag Model) has been used to measure the impact of government Expenditure in both side current and investment in the oil-GDP (gross domestic product) and non oil-GDP, the stady found that there is no significant relationship between current Expenditure in non-oil and oil-GDP in bo

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Publication Date
Fri May 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Molecular Structure
Synthesis, spectral studies, DFT, biological evaluation, molecular docking and dyeing performance of 1-(4-((2-amino-5-methoxy)diazenyl)phenyl) ethanone complexes with some metallic ions
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Four Co(II), (C1); Ni(II), (C2); Cu(II), (C3) and Zn(II), (C4) chelates have been synthesized with 1-(4-((2-amino- 5‑methoxy)diazenyl)phenyl)ethanone ligand (L). The produced compounds have been identified by using spectral studies, elemental analysis (C.H.N.O), conductivity and magnetic properties. The produced metal chelates were studied using molar ratio as well as sequences contrast types. Rate of concentration (1 ×10􀀀 4 - 3 ×10􀀀 4 Mol/L) sequence Beer’s law. Compound solutions have been noticed height molar absorptivity. The free of ligand and metal chelates had been applied as disperse dyes on cotton fabrics. Furthermore, the antibacterial activity of the produced compounds against various bacteria had been investigated. F

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