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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models

    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 27 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Nano Research
A Specific NH<sub>3</sub> Gas Sensor of a Thick MWCNTs-OH Network for Detection at Room Temperature

NH3 gas sensor was fabricated based on deposited of Functionalized Multi-Walled Carbon Nanotubes (MWCNTs-OH) suspension on filter paper substrates using suspension filtration method. The structural, morphological and optical properties of the MWCNTs film were characterized by XRD, AFM and FTIR techniques. XRD measurement confirmed that the structure of MWCNTs is not affected by the preparation method. The AFM images reflected highly ordered network in the form of a mat. The functional groups and types of bonding have appeared in the FTIR spectra. The fingerprint (C-C stretch) of MWCNTs appears in 1365 cm-1, and the backbone of CNTs observed at 1645 cm-1. A homemade sensi

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Publication Date
Sat May 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Violet Laser Irradiation Effect on The Optical Properties of Cobalt oxide (CoO<sub>2</sub>) Thin Films deposited via Semi-Computerized Spraying System
Abstract<p>The existing investigation explains the consequence of irradiation of violet laser on the optic properties of (CoO<sub>2</sub>) films. The film was equipped by the utilization of semi-computerized spray pyrolysis technique (SCSPT), it is the first time that this technique is used in the preparation and irradiation using a laser in this technique. From the XRD analysis, the crystalline existence with trigonal crystal system was when the received films were processed by continuous violet laser (405 nm) with power (1W) for different laser irradiation time using different number of times a laser scan (0, 6, 9, 12, 15 and 18 times) with total irradiation time(0,30,45,60,75,90 min</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Pharmacia
Synthesis, docking study, and structureactivity relationship of novel niflumic acid derivatives acting as anticancer agents by inhibiting VEGFR or EGFR tyrosine kinase activities

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Materials Chemistry And Physics
DFT + U and ab initio atomistic thermodynamics approache for mixed transitional metallic oxides: A case study of CoCu 2 O 3 surface terminations

This study develops a systematic density functional theory alongside on-site Coulomb interaction correction (DFT + U) and ab initio atomistic thermodynamics approachs for ternary (or mixed transitional metal oxides), expressed in three reservoirs. As a case study, among notable multiple metal oxides, synthesized CoCu2O3 exhibits favourable properties towards applications in solar, thermal and catalytic processes. This progressive contribution applies DFT + U and atomistic thermodynamic approaches to examine the structure and relative stability of CoCu2O3 surfaces. Twenty-five surfaces along the [001], [010], [100], [011], [101], [110] and [111] low-Miller-indices, with varying surface-termination configurations were selected in this study.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 17 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
PDF Study the Effect of Nano Aluminum Oxide Coating on PMMA as Thermal Insulator: Dawood Obied Altiafy *, Hussien Ali Jawad, Noor Taha Ismaeel

Abstract: In the present work, the heat transfer of Nano Aluminum Oxide -NAO- has been studied practically to define the appropriate insulation conditions.  This study focuses on finding of the amount of heat transfer through a glass substrate that is coated with nanoalumina doped on PMMA matrix. The optical and thermal properties were systematically investigated. The density of heat flow rate, was calculated in the range values (240-260) W/m2 while the optimum values confine between (250-260) W/m2 at temp. (25-35)Co. The results showed that the thermal insulation of the sample was significantly enhanced at temp. (30-50)Co. The simulated net heat transfer through window decreased linearly with incr

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 24 2020
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
INCREASED PREFERENCE OF DARKLING BEETLES AKIS SUBTRICOSTATA REDTENBACHER, 1850 AND TRACHYDERMA PHILISTINA REICHE AND SAULCY, 1857 (COLEOPTERA, TENEBRIONIDAE) FOR VEGETATION WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURE

   A square experimental arena with vegetation on one interior side was deployed in a Sharjah, United Arab Emirates desert. Individual darkling beetles (Coleoptera, Tenebrionidae) Akis subtricostata Redtenbacher, 1850 and Trachyderma philistina Reiche and Saulcy, 1857 were placed inside the arena at temperatures ranging between 27 - 49°C. Whether they chose the vegetated side of the arena or not was recorded, as well as how long it took for them to reach the vegetated side, if they chose it. Both species preferred the vegetated side at all temperatures, and the chance of them choosing the vegetated side increased significantly with increasing temperature (logistic regression, p = 0.0096 and p = 0.0003 for

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 07 2021
Journal Name
2021 14th International Conference On Developments In Esystems Engineering (dese)
Study the use of Nano-limestone and Egg-shell Ash in Eco-friendly SCC: an Experimental and Statistical Evaluation Based on Computer Programming

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Comparative Biosorption Of Pb(II), Cr(III) AND Cd(II) Ions In Single Component System By Live And Dead Anaerobic Biomass, Bath Study

In this study, dead and live anaerobic biomass was used in biosorption of Pb(II), Cr(III) and Cd(II) ions from a synthetic wastewater. The biosorption was investigated by batch adsorption experiments. It was found that, the biosorption capacities were significantly affected by biosorbent dosage. The process follows Langmuir isotherm (regression coefficient 0.995, 0.99 and 0.987 for Pb(II), Cr(III) and Cd(II) ions, respectively, onto dead anaerobic biomass) model with uniform distribution over the biomass surface. The experimental uptake capacity was 51.56, 29.2 and 28 mg/g for Pb(II), Cr(III) and Cd(II), respectively, onto dead anaerobic biomass, compared with 35, 13.6 and 11.8 mg/g for Pb(II), Cr(III) and Cd(II), respectively, onto live

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 06 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Complexeation Behavior of CoII, NiII, CuII, ZnII, and CdII Ions Toward Schiff Base Derived From 2, 4 -Dihydroxy Benzaldehyde and O-Phenylene Diamine

  The aim of this work covers the synthesis and characterization of the new tertra dentate ligand (H4L) containing (N and O) as donor set atoms kind (N2O2) where: H4L=Bis-1,2 (2,4dihydroxybenzylediene phylinediamine . The preparation of ligand contains reaction 2, 4 Dihydroxy benzaldehyde and o-phenylene diamine . Schiff base was reacted with some metal ions in the presence of methanol to give the complexes in the general formula  [M (H2L)] where: MII = Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd. All compounds were characterized by spectroscopic methods I.R , U.V.-Vis, metal content and molar conductivity measurements, showed that the complexes are non-electrolyte. The proposed geometry for all of the proposed complexes was a tetrahedral while Ni comp

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 19 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis, Spectroscopic, and Characterization of Novel Nano Sized Mannich Base Complexes with Pt (IV) and Au (III) Ions and Assessing Their Antioxidants Activity

في هذا البحث تم تحضير المركبات المعدنية النانوية الجديدة لأيونات البلاتين 4+و الذهب 3+ مع ليكاند قاعدة مانخ جديد مشتق من السيبروفلوكساسين بطريقة الموجات فوق الصوتية. تم تشخيص المعقدات النانوية والليكاند الجديد بأستخدام  تقنيات فيزيائية و كيميائية مختلفة مثل أطياف الاشعة تحت الحمراء، حيود الاشعة السينية ، المجهر الالكتروني الماسح ، المجهر الالكتروني النافذ و مجهر القوة الذرية.  تم تحديد نشاط مضادات الأك

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