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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Research Journal Of Pharmaceutical, Biological And Chemical
Synthesis and characterization of azo dyes ligands complexes with Ni (II) and Cu (II) and studies their industrial and bacterial application
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1-[4-(4-Acetyl-2-hydroxy-phenylazo)-phenyl]-ethanone (L1) and 1-[3-Hydroxy-4(4-nitro-phenylazo)-phenyl]-ethanone (L2) were readied by combination the diazonium salts of amines with 3-hydroxyacetophenone. (C.H.N) analyses, infrared spectra, UV–vis electronic absorption spectra, 1H and 13CNMR spectral mechanisms are use to identified of the ligands. Complexes of Ni+2 and Cu+2 were performed as well depicted. The formation of complexes has been identified by using atomic absorption of flame, elemental analysis, infrared spectra and UV-Vis spectral process as well conductivity and magnetic quantifications. Nature of compounds produced have been studied obeyed the mole ratio and continuous contrast methods, Beer's law followed during a concent

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 28 2024
Journal Name
Curr Pharm Des
Synthesis, Characterization, and Antimicrobial Evaluation of Schiff base-mixed Ligand Complexes with Divalent Metal Ions Derived from Amoxicillin and Vanillin/Nicotinamide
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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Comparative Study of Various Intelligent Algorithms Based Nonlinear PID Neural Trajectory Tracking Controller for the Differential Wheeled Mobile Robot Model
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This paper presents a comparative study of two learning algorithms for the nonlinear PID neural trajectory tracking controller for mobile robot in order to follow a pre-defined path. As simple and fast tuning technique, genetic and particle swarm optimization algorithms are used to tune the nonlinear PID neural controller's parameters to find the best velocities control actions of the right wheel and left wheel for the real mobile robot. Polywog wavelet activation function is used in the structure of the nonlinear PID neural controller. Simulation results (Matlab) and experimental work (LabVIEW) show that the proposed nonlinear PID controller with PSO
learning algorithm is more effective and robust than genetic learning algorithm; thi

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 23 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Optics
Single mode optical fiber sensor based on surface plasmon resonance for the detection of the oil aging for the electrical transformers
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This work presents a novel technique for the detection of oil aging in electrical transformers using a single mode optical fiber sensor based on surface plasmon resonance (SPR). The aging of insulating oil is a critical issue in the maintenance and performance of electrical transformers, as it can lead to reduce insulation properties, increase risk of electrical breakdown, and decrease operational lifespan. Many parameters are calculated in this study in order to examine the efficiency of this sensor like sensitivity (S), signal to noise ratio (SNR), resolution (refractive index unit) and figure of merit (FOM) and the values are for figure of merit is 11.05, the signal to noise ratio is 20.3, the sensitivity is 6.63, and the resolution is 3

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 30 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Salivary tumor marker CA15-3 and selected elements in relation to oral health status among a group of breast cancer women
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Background: Breast cancer is the commonest type of malignancy worldwide and in Iraq. It is a serious disease that affects the general health and cause systemic changes that affect the physical and chemical properties of saliva leading to adverse effects on oral health. This study was conducted toassess the tumor marker CA15-3 and selected elements in saliva and their relation to oral health status among breast cancer patients compared to control group. Materials and Methods: The total sample consisted of 60 women aged 35-45 years. 30 women were newly diagnosed with breast cancer before taking any treatment and surgery (study group) and 30 women without clinical signs and symptoms of breast cancer as a control group. Dental caries was record

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 31 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
The Effect of Laser And Thermal Treatment on the Hardness and Adhesion Force on the Cermet Coating By Thermal Spray Technique
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Ceramic coating compose from a ceramic mixture (MgO, Al2O3) and metall (Al-Ni) were produced by Thermal Spray Technique. The mixed ratio of used materials Al:Ni (50%) and 40% of Al2O3 and 10% MgO. This mixture was spray on a stainless steel substrate of type (316 L) by using thermal spray with flame method and at spraying distances (8, 12, 16 and 20) cm, then the prepared films were treated by laser and thermal treatment. After that performing a hardness and adhesion tests were eximined. The present study shows that the best value of the thermal treatment is 1000 ℃ for 30 mint; the optimum spray distance is 12 cm and most suitable laser is 500 mJ where the microscopic and mechanical character

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 05 2022
Journal Name
Egyptian Journal Of Chemistry
Synthesis, Characterization, and Biological Activity of New Metal Ions Complexes with Schiff Base Derived from 2-Acetylthiophene and Isatin-3-Hydrazone
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This study describes the preparation of a new bidentate Schiff base derived from the condensation of Isatin-3-hydrazone with 2-acetylthiophene and the preparation of new series of complexes with a good yield. The prepared ligand was characterized by IR, UV-Vis, C.H.N.S elemental analysis, 1H and 13C NMR, LC-Mass spectroscopy, and physical measurements. Its complexes were analyzed by C.H.N.S elemental analyses, UV-Vis., FTIR, NMR, LC-Mass Spectra, atomic absorption spectroscopy, magnetic susceptibility, and conductivity measurements The results from spectroscopy and measurement studies showed that the ligand coordinated to the metal ion as a bidentate ligand via oxygen and nitrogen, forming an octahedral geometry around it. In vitro antimicr

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Dentistry
New functional and aesthetic composite materials used as an alternative to traditional post materials for the restoration of endodontically treated teeth
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Objectives To tailor composites of polyethylene–hydroxyapatite to function as a new intracanal post for the restoration of endodontically treated teeth (ETT). Methods Silanated hydroxyapatite (HA) and zirconium dioxide (ZrO2) filled low-density polyethylene (LDPE) composites were fabricated by a melt extrusion process and characterised using infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA). The flexural strength and modulus were determined in dry state and post ageing in simulated body fluid and fractured surfaces analysed by SEM. The water uptake and radiographic appearance of the experimental composites were also measured and compared with a commercially known endodontic fibre

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Acta Facultatis Medicae Naissensis
Operative treatment of femoral neck fractures with cannulated screws with and without platelet rich plasma in young adults: A comparative study
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Many studies have evaluated the effect of platelet rich plasma (PRP) in the treatment of non-union fractures but few studies have investigated their effect on the union of femoral neck fractures or their functional outcome in young adults. The aim of this study was to evaluate the union time and functional outcome in young adult patients with femoral neck fracture managed by three cannulated screws injected with PRP and those managed by fixation only. This prospective study included 24 patients diagnosed with femoral neck fractures within 24 hours of presentation. Twelve cases in group A were managed by closed reduction and three cannulated screws fixation injected with PRP; twelve patients in group B were managed only by closed reduction a

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 14 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Corrеlation bеtwееn Dual-Еnеrgy X-Ray Absorptiomеtry and Panoramic Mandibular Indicеs in Prеdiction of Bonе Minеral Dеnsity in Postmеnopausal Fеmalеs
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Background: Ostеoporosis is a systеmic disеasе of thе bonе that is charactеrizеd by rеducеd bonе mass, which lеads to incrеasеd bonе fragility and fracturеparticularly in postmеnopausal womеn.Thе aims of study was toеvaluatе thе rеlationship bеtwееn mandibular radiomorphomеtric indicеs obtainеd on digital panoramic radiographswith thе bonе minеral dеnsitiеs of thе lumbar spinееvaluatеd using dual-еnеrgy X-ray absorptiomеtry (DXA) scan, in a population of ostеoporotic and non-ostеoporotic fеmalеs. Matеrials and mеthods: In panoramic imagеs obtainеd from 60 fеmalе individuals dividеd еq

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