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jeasiq-720
Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 05 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis of Multifunctional Polymers Based on Tert-Butyl Acrylamide/Octyl Acrylate as Lubricant Additives and Adsorbents for Copper Ion from Aqueous Solution
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Two homopolymeric and three copolymeric additives for base oil were synthesized using octyl acrylate (OA) and tert-butyl acrylamide (TBA) monomers. The two additives named P1 and P2 are the homopolymers of TBA and OA, respectively, whereas copolymeric additives named Co1, Co2, and Co3 were synthesized by varying the ratios of TBA:OA as 1:3, 3:1 and 1:1, respectively. The prepared polymers were characterized by Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR). Based on the solubility of synthesized polymers in base oil and reactivity ratios of TBA/OA copolymer (0.222, 0.434) calculated by Fineman-Ross method, P2, Co1, Co2 and Co3 were selected to evaluate their performance as pour point depressant (PPD), viscosity improver (VII), and anticorrosion addit

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Preparation, characterization and study of biological activity and laser effect on the new Cu(II) complexes containing mixed benziloxime and furfuraldehydeazine ligands
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Abstract: New copper(II) complexes with mixed ligand benziloxime (BOxH) and furfural-dehydeazine (FA) using classical (with and without solvent) and microwave heating methods have been prepared. The resulting complexes have been characterized using physico-chemical techniques. The study suggested that the ligands formed neutral complexes had general formulas [Cu(FA)(BOXH)(Ac)2] and [Cu(FA)(BOX)(OH)] in neutral (or acidic) and basic medium, respectively. Accordingly, hexa-coordinated mono-nuclear complexes have been investigated by this study and having distorted octahedral geometry. The effect of laser have been studied on solid ligands and solid complexes, no effect have been observed on most compounds through the results of melting poin

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 06 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparison Between Conventional and Microwave Methods For Extraction Pectin and Degree of Esterification from Orange (Citrus sinesis) and Grapefruit (Citrus paradisi) Peels
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In this study Microwave and conventional methods have been used to extract and estimate pectin and its degree of esterification from dried grapefruit and orange peels. Acidified solution water with nitric acid in pH (1.5) was used. In conventional method, different temperature degrees for extraction pectin from grape fruit and orange(85 ,90 , 95 and 100?C) for 1 h were used The results showed grapefruit peels contained 12.82, 17.05, 18.47, 15.89% respectively, while the corresponding values were 5.96, 6.74, 7.41 and 8.00 %, respectively in orange peels. In microwave method, times were 90, 100, 110 and 120 seconds. Grapefruit peels contain 13.86, 16.57, 18.69, and 17.87%, respectively, while the corresponding values were of 6.53, 6.68, 7.2

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 04 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Estimating of Fatty Acids, Tcopherols, Tocotrienols, Total Carotens, Study The Physiochemical Properties And Unsaponifiable Matters Extraction From Crude Red Palm Oil(1)
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The percentage of fatty acids, quantity of tocopherols, tocotrienols, carotens and physiochemical characteristics of crude red palm oil have been evaluated, in addition to specific chemical detection of active compounds unsaponifiable matters. Results of Gas Liquid Chromatography showed:- The major fatty acids in red palm oil is palmitic (44.36%) then oleic (39.65%), linolenic (10.55%), stearic (3.56%), myristic (1.22%), arachdonic (0.24%) and palmotic (0.19%). Red palm oil contains ? – ?- ?- ? – Tocopherols with concentration 258 , 121 , 259, 109 m/kg oil , ? – ?- ?- ? – Tocotrienol with concentration 462.77 , 571.03, 619.18, 509.07 m/kg oil respectively. Total tocopherols & tocotrienols 2909.05 m/kg oil and

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Influence of Varying Temperature and Concentration on Magnetohydrodynamics Peristaltic Transport for Jeffrey Fluid with a Nanoparticles Phenomenon through a Rectangular Porous Duct
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A mathematical model constructed to study the combined effects of the concentration and the thermodiffusion on the nanoparticles of a Jeffrey fluid with a magnetic field effect the process of containing waves in a three-dimensional rectangular porous medium canal. Using the HPM to solve the nonlinear and coupled partial differential equations. Numerical results were obtained for temperature distribution, nanoparticles concentration, velocity, pressure rise, pressure gradient, friction force and stream function. Through the graphs, it was found that the velocity of fluid rises with the increase of a mean rate of volume flow and a magnetic parameter, while the velocity goes down with the increasing a Darcy number and lateral walls. Also, t

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of Citrus aurantifolia Seed Extracts In Some Bacteria Isolated From Burns Infections: Suaad K. Ibrahim|Ilham S. Banno|Sawsan M. Abdella
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The present study was carried to evaluate antibacterial activity of Acetone, Alcholic (cold and hot) and Aqueaus(water) extracts of Citrus aurantifoliaseeds,against growth of some bacteria isolated from burns infections(Pseudomonas aeruginosa,Escherichia coli, Klebsiellapneumonia,Staphylococcusaureus)fromKindy HospitalIn Baghdad from March to June 2012.Antibiotic Sensitivity was done for all isolated bacteria used in this study.Results showed variation in antibacterial activity of different extracts against all tested bacteria by well diffusion technique in agar and measuring the diameter of inhibition zone, at concentration 250Mg-ml. Acetone extract had the greatest inhibitory effect followed by hot alcoholci extract, and then cold alcohol

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering And Applied Sciences
The use of Resource Consumption Accounting and Balanced Scorecard Methods as an Integrated Framework in Correcting the Economic Unit Performance: Applied Study
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Publication Date
Wed Sep 30 2015
Journal Name
European Journal Of Chemistry
Reaction pathways and transition states of the C-C and C-H bond cleavage in the aromatic pyrenemolecule - A Density Functional study
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The activation and reaction energies of the C-C and C-H bonds cleavage in pyrene molecule are calculated applying the Density Functional Theory and 6-311G Gaussian basis. Different values for the energies result for the different bonds, depending on the location of the bond and the structure of the corresponding transition states. The C-C bond cleavage reactions include H atom migration, in many cases, leading to the formation of CH2 groups and H-C≡C- acetylenic fragments. The activation energy values of the C-C reactions are greater than 190.00 kcal/mol for all bonds, those for the C-H bonds are greater than 160.00 kcal/mol. The reaction energy values for the C-C bonds range between 56.497 to 191.503 kcal/mol. As for the C-H cleavage rea

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 09 2015
Journal Name
Monthly Notices Of The Royal Astronomical Society
A reliable iterative method for solving Volterra integro-differential equations and some applications for the Lane–Emden equations of the first kind
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Publication Date
Thu Oct 15 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Energy Research
Mixed-ligand complexes of ampicillin derived Schiffbase ligand and Nicotinamide: Synthesis, physico-chemical studies, DFT calculation, antibacterial study and molecular docking analysis
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A novel series of mixed-ligand complexes of the type, [ML 1 (L 2 ) 3 ]Cl x [M = Cr(III), Fe(III), Co(II),Ni(II), Cu(II), Cd(II) and Hg(II), n = 2, 3], was synthesized using Schiffbase (HL 1 ) as main ligand, nicotinamide (L 2 ) as secondary ligand, and the corresponding metal ions in 1:3:1 molar ratio. The main ligand, HL 1 was prepared by the interaction of ampicillin drug and 4-chlorobenzophenone. The synthesized mixed ligand complexes were characterized by elemental analysis, UV-Vis, FT-IR, 1 H-NMR, 13 C-NMR and TG/DTG studies. In the mixed-ligand complexes, the Schiffbase ligand, HL 1 showed coordination to the central metal ion in tridentate manner via azomethine nitrogen, β-lactam ring oxygen and deprotonated carboxylic oxy- gen atom

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