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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 16 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Substrate Temperature Effect on the Structure, Morphological and Optical Properties of CuO/Sapphire Thin Films Prepared by Pulsed Laser deposition
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This paper addresses the substrate temperature effect on the structure, morphological and optical properties of copper oxide (CuO) thin films deposited by pulsed laser deposition (PLD) method on sapphire substrate of 150nm thickness. The films deposited at two different substrate temperatures (473 and 673)K. The atomic force microscopy (AFM), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and UV-VIS transmission spectroscopy were employed to characterize the size, morphology, crystalline structure and optical properties of the prepared thin films. The surface characteristics were studied by using AFM. It is found that as the substrate temperature increases, the grain size increased but the surface roughness decreased.  The FTIR spec

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 23 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The Effect of Special Exercises on Developing Strength Endurance and Kayaking Achievement Time (500m) individually for the Advanced Kayak Athletes
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 18 2017
Journal Name
Effect Of Cutting Angle And Knives Type On Some Operational Characteristics For A Locally Manufactured Palm Pruning Motorized Vibration Cutter‏ Aa Jasim, Mr Abbood, Sm Abbood‏
Effect of Cutting Angle and Knives Type on Some Operational Characteristics for a Locally Manufactured Palm Pruning Motorized Vibration Cutter‏
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Publication Date
Wed Apr 19 2023
Journal Name
Lasers In Medical Science
Immunohistochemistry technique for effect of gold nanoparticles, laser, and photodynamic therapy on FoxP1 level in infected mice with mammary adenocarcinoma
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Publication Date
Wed Apr 23 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Shear bond strength of endodontic sealers to dentin with and without smear layer and gutta percha (An in vitro study)
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Background: The bond strength of root canal sealers to dentin and gutta-percha seems to be an important property for maintaining the stability of root canal filling, which potentially influences both leakage and root strength. The objective of this, in vitro, study was to evaluate the shear bond strength of three different endodontic sealers (Gutta-Flow, AH Plus, Apexit Plus) to dentin, in the presence and absence of the smear layer and gutta percha. Material and Methods: After slicing off the occlusal 2mm of 60 extracted human maxillary premolar teeth, the exposed dentin served as the tested surfaces; the teeth were fixed with cold cure acrylic, and were divided into two groups according to the smear layer presence, group A without smear

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 14 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Effect of Black Cardamom Extracts on Mutans Streptococci in Comparison to Chlorhexidine Gluconate and De-ionized Water (In Vitro Study)
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Background: Spices and herbs have been used by many cultures to enhance the flavor and aroma of food and for their medicinal value. Black cardamom is one of these spices widely used in cooking because of its unique taste and powerful flavor. The aim of study was to test the effect of black cardamom on Mutans Streptococci in comparison to chlorhexidine gluconate (0.2%) and de-ionized water. Materials and methods: Dried fruits of black cardamom were extracted by using alcohol (70% ethanol). Saliva was collected from seven volunteers. Agar well technique with different concentrations of black cardamom extracts was used to test the sensitivities of Mutans Streptococci, as well black cardamom extracts effect on viable counts of Mutans Streptococ

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Pragmatics and Speech Act- History, Importance and Stages of Development: הפרגמטיקה ופעולת־הדיבור- התולדות, החשיבות ושלבי ההתפתחות (יישמוים בלשון העברית)
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      The present study stresses two of the most significant aspects of linguistic approach: Pragmatics” and the “Speech Act Theory”, revealing its importance and the stages and levels of development through Hebrew language’s speech acts analysis including (political speech, the Holy Bible, Hebrew stories).

       Chronologically, Pragmatics has always been the center of linguists’ interests due to its importance in linguistic decryptions, particularly, through “Speech Act Theory” that has been initiated and developed by the most prominent philosophers and linguistics.

        The prese

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 15 2010
Journal Name
International Journal Of Poultry Science
Effect of n-3 and n-6 Fatty Acid Supplemented Diets on Semen Quality in Japanese Quail (Coturnix coturnix japonica)
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Japanese territorial dispute about the Soviet northern provinces )South Kuril Islands until the end of the Cold War( Historical Study
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The imposition of (state) policy on the South Kuril Islands.In the Pacific was a subject
of borders dispute between Japan and Soviet Union which appeared clearly afterthe second
Great War and during the cold war. Despite the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the
Soviet Union in 1991, this conflict has continued, thus both countries had to made a historic
and legitimate claims to demand the rights of sovereignty and ownership of four islands
occupied by the Soviet Union after World War II under the international conventions and
treaties, but these claims are proven failures through the continuation of the regional conflict.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Structural and D.C. conductivity investigation of the ternary alloy System a-AlXGa1-x As:H films prepared by new deposition method
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In this paper Alx Ga1-x As:H films have been prepared by using new deposition method based on combination of flash- thermal evaporation technique. The thickness of our samples was about 300nm. The Al concentration was altered within the 0 x 40.
The results of X- ray diffraction analysis (XRD) confirmed the amorphous structure of all AlXGa1-x As:H films with x  40 and annealing temperature (Ta)<200°C. the temperature dependence of the DC conductivity GDC with various Al content has been measured for AlXGa1-x As:H films.
We have found that the thermal activation energy Ea depends of Al content and Ta, thus the value of Ea were approximately equal to half the value of optical gap.

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