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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 23 2022
Journal Name
Frontiers In Energy Research
Evaluation of T-Shaped Fins With a Novel Layout for Improved Melting in a Triple-Tube Heat Storage System
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The effects of T-shaped fins on the improvement of phase change materials (PCM) melting are numerically investigated in vertical triple-tube storage containment. The PCM is held in the middle pipe of a triple-pipe heat exchanger while the heat transfer fluid flows through the internal and external pipes. The dimension effects of the T-shaped fins on the melting process of the PCM are investigated to determine the optimum case. Results indicate that while using T-shaped fins improves the melting performance of the PCM, the improvement potential is mainly governed by the fin’s body rather than the head. Hence, the proposed T-shaped fin did not noticeably improve melting at the bottom of the PCM domain; additionally, a flat fin is ad

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 20 2018
Journal Name
Day 2 Wed, March 21, 2018
Numerical Approach for the Prediction of Formation and Hydraulic Fracture Properties Considering Elliptical Flow Regime in Tight Gas Reservoirs
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Abstract<p>As tight gas reservoirs (TGRs) become more significant to the future of the gas industry, investigation into the best methods for the evaluation of field performance is critical. While hydraulic fractured well in TRGs are proven to be most viable options for economic recovery of gas, the interpretation of pressure transient or well test data from hydraulic fractured well in TGRs for the accurate estimation of important reservoirs and fracture properties (e.g. fracture length, fracture conductivity, skin and reservoir permeability) is rather very complex and difficult because of the existence of multiple flow profiles/regimes. The flow regimes are complex in TGRs due to the large hydraulic fractures n</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sun Sep 15 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The reliability of insertion torque as an indicator for primary stability in immediate dental implant: A prospective clinical study
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Background: The primary stability of the dental implant is a crucial factor determining the ability to initiate temporary implant-supported prosthesis and for subsequent successful osseointegration, especially in the maxillary non-molar sites. This study assessed the reliability of the insertion torque of dental implants by relating it to the implant stability quotient values measured by the Osstell device. Material and methods: This study included healthy, non-smoker patients with no history of diabetes or other metabolic, or debilitating diseases that may affect bone healing, having non-restorable fractured teeth and retained roots in the maxillary non-molar sites. Primary dental implant stability was evaluated using a torque ratc

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis, Characterization and Anticancer Activity of Chitosan Schiff Base / PVP Gold Nano Composite in Treating Esophageal Cancer Cell Line
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In the present paper, chitosan Schiff base has been synthesized from chitosan’s reaction with the salicyldehyde. The AuNPs was manufacture by extract of onion peels as a reducing agent. The Au NPs that have been prepared were characterized through the UV-vis spectroscopy, XRD analyses and SEM microscopy. The polymer blends of the chitosan Schiff base / PVP has been prepared through using the approach of solution casting. Chitosan Schiff base / PVP Au nano-composites was prepared. Nano composites and polymer blends have been characterized by FTIR which confirm the formation of Schiff base by revealing a new band of absorption at 1651cm-1 as a result of the (C=N) imine group. SEM, DSC and TGA confirms the thermal stability of

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 10 2017
Journal Name
Superconductor Science And Technology
Conceptual designs of conduction cooled MgB<sub>2</sub> magnets for 1.5 and 3.0 T full body MRI systems
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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Between Ordinary Method and Robust Method to estimate the Parameters of the Univariate Mixed Model with Low Order
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A condense study was done to compare between the ordinary estimators. In particular the maximum likelihood estimator and the robust estimator, to estimate the parameters of the mixed model of order one, namely ARMA(1,1) model.

Simulation study was done for a varieties the model.  using: small, moderate and large sample sizes, were some new results were obtained. MAPE was used as a statistical criterion for comparison.

 

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Publication Date
Wed May 12 2021
Journal Name
Annals Of The Romanian Society For Cell Biology
Determining Grades and Standard Levels for the Most Important Physical and Motor Abilities of Sepak Takraw Juniors in Iraq
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(Sepak takraw) is a game that mixes football and volleyball, it is played on a court similar to a badminton court, in which players have the right to play the ball with any part of the body except the arm and hand. The object of the game is to return the ball to the opponent's court and score a point. Since it is a newly emerging game, all aspects related to it must be studied and covered in order to reach the highest levels, and it is known that each game or sporting activity has its own physical and motor capabilities, which is important to determine the level of technical performance, as the game's abilities contribute to mastering the skills. The importance of research in determining standard levels of physical and motor abilities for y

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 03 2024
Journal Name
Retos
The effect of purposeful three-dimensional training on developing some motor abilities and skill performance among female fencing players
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O estudo destaca a necessidade crítica de se focar nas capacidades físicas, motoras e técnicas das jogadoras de esgrima, desenvolvendo e testando metodologias de treino modernas, baseadas na ciência, adaptadas às exigências específicas do desporto. O objetivo do estudo foi avaliar a eficácia do treino tridimensional visando melhorar as capacidades motoras e o desempenho técnico dos participantes. Recorrendo a um desenho experimental, o estudo envolveu a formação de grupos experimentais e de controlo. A amostra incluiu 16 esgrimistas da Faculdade Feminina de Educação Física e Ciências do Desporto. Após a exclusão de dois jogadores durante a fase exploratória, os restantes 14 foram divididos igualmente em grupos experimental

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of King Saud University - Engineering Sciences
Impact of long-term depletion on horizontal wellbore stability in tight reservoirs-including changes in petrophysical and geomechanical properties
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Publication Date
Sun Jan 15 2012
Journal Name
Talanta
Molecularly imprinted polymer as sorbent in micro-solid phase extraction of ochratoxin A in coffee, grape juice and urine
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A simple, environmental friendly and selective sample preparation technique employing porous membrane protected micro-solid phase extraction (μ-SPE) loaded with molecularly imprinted polymer (MIP) for the determination of ochratoxin A (OTA) is described. After the extraction, the analyte was desorbed using ultrasonication and was analyzed using high performance liquid chromatography. Under the optimized conditions, the detection limits of OTA for coffee, grape juice and urine were 0.06 ng g−1, 0.02 and 0.02 ng mL−1, respectively while the quantification limits were 0.19 ng g−1, 0.06 and 0.08 ng mL−1, respectively. The recoveries of OTA from coffee spiked at 1, 25 and 50 ng g−1, grape juice and urine samples at 1, 25 and 50 ng mL

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