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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 03 2013
Journal Name
Heat Transfer-asian Research
CFD Simulation of Heat Transfer Augmentation in a Circular Tube Fitted with Alternative Axis Twisted Tape in Laminar Flow under a Constant Heat Flux
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Publication Date
Wed Feb 15 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Emerging Technologies In Learning (ijet)
Instructional Design According to the Repulsive Learning Model and its Impact on the Achievement of Chemistry and Lateral Thinking for Third-Grade Intermediate Students
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Identify the effect of an educational design according to the repulsive (allosteric) learning model on the achievement of chemistry and lateral thinking. The sample consisted of (59) students from third-grade intermediate students. They were randomly distributed into two groups (experimental and control), and the equivalence was done in (chronological age, previous achievement in chemistry, intelligence, lateral thinking). The (30) students from experimental group were taught according to the instructional design, other 29 students from the (control) group were taught according to the usual method. Two tests done, one of them is an achievement test consisted of (30) items of the type of multiple choice, the other was a lateral think

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 14 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
The correlation between FEV1/ FVC with Arm span to height or chest to waist ratio as an index of pulmonary function in healthy subject.
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Publication Date
Tue Jun 03 2014
Journal Name
Heat Transfer - Asian Research
CFD Simulation of Heat Transfer Augmentation in a Circular Tube fitted with Alternative Axis Twisted Tape in Laminar Flow under the Constant Heat Flux
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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Applied Energy
Hourly yield prediction of a double-slope solar still hybrid with rubber scrapers in low-latitude areas based on the particle swarm optimization technique
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Publication Date
Sat Nov 22 2014
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Physics
Comparison between shell model and self-consistent mean field calculations for ground charge density distributions and elastic form factors of 12C and 16O nuclei
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Publication Date
Sun May 22 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Early Childhood Special Education
A training program based on integrating futuristic thinking skills with classroom interaction patterns and its effect on the academic self- efficacy of mathematics teachers
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The research aims to identify the effect of the training program that is based on integrating futuristic thinking skills with classroom interaction patterns on mathematics teachers in order to provide their students with creative solution skills. The research sample consisted of 31teachers (15 teachers for the experimental group and 16 for the control groups). The researcher developed a measure for the academic self-efficacy consisting of (39) items. Its validity, reliability, coefficient of difficulty and discriminatory power were estimated. To analyze the findings, the researcher adopted the Mann-Whitney (U) test and the effect size, and the findings were as follows: There is a statistically significant difference at the significance leve

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 27 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Isolation, Structural Characterization and Identification of Major Constituents in Ephedra foliata Naturally Growing in Iraq by TLC, GC-MS and UPLC-ESI-MS/MS
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Abstract:

   The aerial part of Ephedra foliata Family Ephedraceae have long been used in traditional medicine and now Ephedra species have medicinal, ecological, and commercial value. The variety of pharmacological actions of this plant is due to its chemical constituents. Ephedrine and
related alkaloids; are the newly potential medicinal value of Ephedra supplements for weight loss or performance improvement. Other pharmacological actions like antibacterial and antifungal effects of the phenolic acid compounds, the immunosuppressive action of the polysaccharides, and the antitumor action of flavonoids. The genus of this plant wildly distributed t

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 20 2022
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
FIRST RECORD OF THE LARGE-BILLED CROW CORVUS MACRORHYNCHOS WAGLER, 1827 PREDEATING ON THE VULNERABLE INDIAN ROOFED TURTLE PANGSHURA TECTA (GRAY, 1831) IN INDIA
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The Vulnerable Indian Roofed Turtle Pangshura tecta (Gray, 1831) (Testudines: Geoemydidae) occurs in the Sub-Himalayan lowlands of India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Little is known about its natural history, no studies have been conducted revealing its natural predators. In this study, a group of Large-billed Crow Corvus macrorhynchos Wagler, 1827 (Passeriformes: Corvidae) was observed hunting and predating on an Indian Roofed Turtle carcass in the bank of river Kuakhai, Bhubaneswar, India. The first record of this predation behaviour is reported and substantiated by photographic evidence.

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 31 2023
Journal Name
Malaysian Journal Of Science
SYNTHESIS, PHYSICOCHEMICAL ELUCIDATION AND BIOLOGICAL SCREENING STUDY OF NEW LIGAND DERIVED FROM 5,6-O-ISO PROPYLIDENE-L-ASCORBIC ACID AND ITS METAL(II) COMPLEXES
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A simple chemistry method approach was used to synthesise new ligand derivate from L-ascorbic acid and its complexes. All of them were water-soluble and are used quite extensively in the medical and pharmaceutical fields. This study synthesised the new ligand derivative from L-ascorbic acid-base using the following steps: A 5,6-O-isopropylidene-L-ascorbic acid was prepared by reacting dry acetone with L-ascorbic acid followed by reacting it with trichloroacetic acid to yield [chloro(carboxylic)methylidene]-5,6-O-isopropylidene-L-ascorbic acid in the second stage. In the third stage, the derivative was reacted with (methyl(6-methyl-2-pyridylmethyl)amine to create a new ligand (ONMILA). This novel ligand was identified using a number

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